1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners in October was 3358.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3234.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 123.83 yuan / ton during the month and a monthly decrease of 3.69%.

On October 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 251.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.04% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 276.12% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in October, the local refined petroleum coke fluctuated downward. Recently, the local refineries have had good trading, and the refineries have actively shipped to inventory. The inventory of individual refineries is high, and the price of local refined petroleum coke is down slightly.

Upstream: international crude oil prices continued to rise in October. On the one hand, the current situation of global energy supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short term, especially natural gas. The European energy crisis is becoming more and more serious, and the EU natural gas inventory has reached the lowest level in recent ten years. Affected by the resonance of energy tension, crude oil inventories continue to decline. At present, OECD oil inventories have reached the lowest level since 2015. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have no new production increase plan, the market supply expectation is still tight, and the crude oil price has risen to the highest level in seven years. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. In addition, with the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere and the increase of heating demand, crude oil prices are supported.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke has been basically stable in the near future; Metal silicon market has declined; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of October 31, the price was 20210.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there were 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the price of petroleum coke in refineries has dropped recently, refineries actively ship to inventory, the trading is good, and the inventory of individual refineries is high. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell, and the price of calcined coke remained basically stable. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to decline in November.