1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business society (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 12475 yuan / ton on October 25, with a daily decrease of 4.59%, a decrease of 0.89% compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of 77.58% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

On October 25, the PVC market continued to move downward. The highest price of the main contract 2201 was 10480 and the closing price was 10195. The disk weakened, driving the sharp decline in the spot market price. Taking Lutai chemical as an example, the ex factory price has been reduced to 11600 yuan / ton, and the market focus continues to move downward. Looking back last week, the macro policy was launched, the market weakened, and there was no lack of PVC in the green situation of futures varieties. In 01, the main contract fell by the limit, bad news suppressed the market sentiment, and the spot market price also decreased significantly. Some enterprises may adjust the price twice, the mentality of the operators is negative, while the demand of the downstream product industry is flat, and the purchasing sentiment is flat, More people are in a wait-and-see attitude, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is not good. At present, the market is dominated by bad conditions, and the PVC market is dominated by weak operation.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s quotation is slightly higher than the market price. The pvc5 electric stone range in Hangzhou is 11180-11300 yuan / ton; Changzhou pvc5 electric stone mainstream 11000-11300 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 11350-11600 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China has fallen sharply.

On October 22, the international oil price rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $83.76/barrel, an increase of US $1.26 or 1.50%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $85.53/barrel, an increase of US $0.92 or 1.10%. The shortage of coal, natural gas and other fuels in the world’s major economies boosted the oil price. In addition, the low crude oil inventory still worsened the supply, and the oil price shock was strong.

Ethylene, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose last week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1154.75/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1177.00/t, up 1.93%. The current price rose 4.51% month on month, and the current price rose 52.86% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: inventory continues to decline, tight supply pushes up the crude oil market, and ethylene cost support is strong. Therefore, data analysts of business society predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

Calcium carbide, in early November, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon was adjusted at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. However, the downstream PVC market fell sharply and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in early November.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the disk is weak, the PVC futures price continues to decline, the news suppresses the market sentiment, and the enterprise quotation decreases sharply, while the downstream demand still maintains the rigid demand, bargain hunting procurement, and the market trading atmosphere is general. It is expected that the PVC price will continue to decline in the short term, and we need to pay attention to the trend of raw material price and the information guidance of macro policy.