1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 11825 yuan / ton on September 28, up 2462.5 yuan from 9362.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 26.3% in the month and 77.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the PVC market continued to rise, with an increase of more than 26% in the month. The price soared to more than 11000 yuan / ton. Shandong Xinfa and other enterprises have risen to more than 12000 yuan / ton, and some ethylene methods have also risen to 13000 yuan / ton. Most enterprises have closed their plates and stopped reporting, and continue to brush High PVC, which makes people unable to climb up and directly seal their gods. This month, with the strong support of cost and supply, the PVC market continued to rise, and the futures price once rose by the limit, driving the sharp rise of the spot market to a new high in recent three years. In the first week of September, the golden nine effect was not obvious, with an increase of 0.8% during the week, and the demand was increased slowly. However, the maintenance was started in autumn, and the maintenance of large devices was planned. The supply side was good, and the PVC price rose. In the second week, due to the high price of raw materials, some PVC enterprises reduced the load of devices for cost consideration, tightened the supply end again, and the expected current price exceeded 10000 yuan hand in hand. In the third week, the current price of PVC broke through the height of last week again and stood at the top of 10000 yuan. In addition, the energy consumption was double controlled, the power supply was limited and the production was reduced, the supply of calcium carbide was in short supply, the price rose, and the cost continued to support the further rise of PVC price. In the fourth week, the price of raw calcium carbide rose sharply to 6150 yuan / ton, driving the price of PVC to rise sharply, with an increase of 5.19% in the week. Towards the end of the month, the raw calcium carbide rose more rapidly, with an increase of about 30% in the month, and the highest price was 7200 yuan / ton. The superimposed PVC supply was further tightened to help PVC continue to rise strongly. The main contract rose once on the 27th, and the highest price on the 28th was 11700, while the spot market continued to rise in the range of more than 500 yuan / ton, resulting in strong market sentiment.

According to the weekly rise and fall from July 5 to September 26, 2021, PVC began to open the upward channel in August. The rise in September was strong, with an increase of 4.65% in the week on July 6, a slowdown in the week on September 13, an increase of 5.19% in the week on September 20, and a sharp rise near the weekend. On the whole, the rise in PVC in September was amazing.

In terms of spot goods, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 11000-12500 yuan / ton. The interval of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 11700-11800 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 11700-11900 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 11850-11950 yuan / ton; Market prices rose sharply throughout the week.

Import and export: in August 2021, the import volume of PVC pure powder in China was 48200 tons, an increase of 33.7% month on month and a decrease of 60% year on year; In August, China’s export volume of PVC pure powder was 68900 tons, an increase of 11.1% month on month and 127.7% year-on-year. From January to August 2021, China imported 254000 tons of pure PVC powder, a decrease of 65.6% over the same period last year. From January to August, China exported 1234000 tons of pure PVC powder, an increase of 290.5% over the same period last year.

The rise of the external price has boosted the rising atmosphere of the domestic PVC market. At present, CFR China Zhang 20 is at US $1420 / T, CFR Southeast Asia is up 100 at US $1510 / T, and CFR India is up 160 at US $1800 / T.

region workmanship 9 / 28 (yuan / ton) 9 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 11760-12040 9400-9500 + 2360/+2540 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 11850-12100 9410-9480 + 2440/+2620 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 11830-12010 9270-9370 + 2560/+2640 Delivered

southwest Calcium carbide method 11920-12300 9250-9500 + 2670/+2800 Delivered

International crude oil, on September 27, the international oil price continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.45/barrel, an increase of US $1.47 or 2.0%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.72/barrel, an increase of US $1.49 or 1.9%. Brent crude oil rose to a high since October 2018, approaching the $80 mark in the session. The economy of the world’s major economies continued to recover and fuel demand rebounded, but U.S. inventories continued to decline, and the oil and gas recovery in the Gulf of Mexico was slow. In addition, it is difficult for the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) to increase production in the short term, and the supply-demand gap is expected to strongly support oil prices.

For ethylene, the external ethylene market showed an overall upward trend in September. Asian ethylene market prices continued to rise. As of the 27th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1131-1141 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1046-1056 / ton. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 16th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1178-1189 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1124-1132 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States has weakened and consolidated. As of the 27th, the price is 795-812 US dollars / ton. The overall demand of the external ethylene market in September is acceptable. Asian ethylene has raised the ethylene market by its own strength, while European and American ethylene fluctuates slightly up and down, which is generally stable.

Calcium carbide, in mid and early October, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The prices of raw materials coke and blue carbon were adjusted at a high level, and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC and 1,4 butanediol market continued to rise, and the downstream demand was strong. The new round of double control of energy consumption is deepened, enterprises limit power and production, and the output of calcium carbide is reduced, which is in short supply. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in the middle and early October. The future market will pay attention to the construction of downstream enterprises.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw calcium carbide continues to rise, with strong support on the cost side. In addition, most PVC devices operate unsaturated, the market supply is in short supply, and the PVC market rises sharply. The futures price once rose by the limit, which boosted the rapid rise of spot market prices. Although the demand for follow-up is insufficient, the enthusiasm for goods preparation before the National Day is general, and the market trading atmosphere is poor, However, it is difficult to reverse the general trend, and the high cost situation is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PVC market is still strong, and there are further upward expectations.