1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1097.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1057.5 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 3.64% and increased by 89.26% year-on-year. On August 11, the thermal coal commodity index was 127.71, down 2.41 points from yesterday, down 3.42% from the highest point 132.23 in the cycle (2021-08-09), and up 185.70% from the lowest point 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Origin: in terms of origin, coal mines around the country have resumed production, and the supply of power coal has increased. However, the release of production capacity takes time, and the overall coal supply is still tight. The overall sales situation of coal mines in Yulin is steadily weakening, and the production and sales situation of coal mines in Ordos is mostly stable.

Downstream power plants: as of August 6, the power plants in the eight southern provinces had stored 22.67 million tons of coal, the daily consumption was 2.25 million tons, and the coal storage days were 10 days. However, at this stage, the “peak summer” is coming to an end, and the coal demand has a downward trend. The power plant mainly operates with a wait-and-see attitude, the actual transaction is not positive, and the bearish atmosphere is relatively strong.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of customs, the data released on August 7 show that in July 2021, China imported 30.178 million tons of coal, an increase of 4.078 million tons or 15.62% over 26.1 million tons in the same period last year. Compared with 28.392 million tons in June, it increased by 1.786 million tons, an increase of 6.29%. From January to July 2021, China imported 169738000 tons of coal, a year-on-year decrease of 15%.

Business analysts believe that at this stage, however, the “peak summer” is coming to an end, and there is a downward trend in coal demand. However, although the coal supply has increased, the current supply is still relatively limited. It is comprehensively expected that the price of power coal in the later stage will mainly be adjusted and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.