1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on July 16, the average price of domestic LNG was 4246.67 yuan / ton, up 3.75% from the beginning of the week, 13.24% from the beginning of the month, 17.71% from the beginning of the month, and 72.4% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, with an increase of nearly 4% in the week and a year-on-year increase of over 70%. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic LNG was relatively stable, and some liquid plants adjusted slightly. From the middle of the week, the market continued to rise. The price of liquid in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Shandong and other places continued to rise in a large area, and the highest price had risen to 4750 yuan / ton. In the second half of July, the price of feed gas for the direct supply liquid plant of northern PetroChina was 2.22-2.25 yuan / m3, which was higher than that of the previous period. In addition, the overhaul of some liquid plants in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi, and the impact of the power restriction policy, the supply decreased. At the same time, due to the high temperature weather, the power consumption increased, and the support of demand side was acceptable, Help the domestic LNG market rise in off-season. At present, Inner Mongolia is 4080-4260 yuan / ton, Shaanxi is 4200-4500 yuan / ton, Shanxi is 4250-4410 yuan / ton, Ningxia is 4200-4350 yuan / ton, Henan is 4300-4510 yuan / ton, Hebei is 4300-4500 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 4350-4530 yuan / ton, and the price of imported gas is about 4200-5000 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas are increased to varying degrees.

region Specifications July 16th July 9th Up and down

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4080-4260 3600-3900 + 480/+360

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4200-4500 4000-4200 + 200/+300

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4250-4410 3900-4250 + 350/+160

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4200-4350 3950-4000 + 250/+350

Henan Province liquified natural gas 4300-4510 4230-4450 + 70/+600

Hebei liquified natural gas 4300-4500 4200-4450 100/+50

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4350-4530 4000-4200 + 350/+330

The rise of domestic liquefied natural gas prices has driven downstream products to rise more than fall less

Methanol, Shandong Luzhong area methanol market negotiation is about 2300-2330 yuan / ton, sent to cash, transaction situation is general, more execution contract. In the methanol market of southern Shandong, the negotiation price of some parts increased by 10 yuan / ton to 2450-2460 yuan / ton, and the factory withdrawal spot exchange rate increased. Linyi received the local goods, the negotiation price increased by 10 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton, sent to cash, logistics goods offer price is not available. The transaction price of methanol market in North Central Shandong Province is 2300-2320 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange. The transaction is relatively stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation for the time being.

Liquid ammonia. On the 15th, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. Today, the amount of ammonia in the region is moderate, and the enterprises are shipping normally. At present, the inventory is normal. Today, the prices of some large factories in Shandong are rising, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price in this area is 4350-4550 yuan / ton. At present, the liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturers in this area is moderate, and the price is expected to be firm in the near future.

Urea: on July 15, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas rose slightly recently, and the cost support was strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is still less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: on the evening of July 13, India issued a new round of import bidding, which boosted the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analysts of business news agency believe that: in the second half of July, the price of gas source rose, the cost support was strengthened, and the supply was reduced due to the maintenance of some liquid plants and the impact of power restriction policy. In addition, under the high temperature, the demand for electricity was increased, and many favorable factors were superimposed. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise in the short term.