1、 Price trend

Toluene prices have stabilized this week after a small drop, according to the business agency’s bulk list. On June 20, the price of toluene was 5801 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (June 27) was 5781 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton, or 0.34% from last week; It was 65.17 per cent higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil continued to rise, with good support from external news, but domestic demand for toluene remained weak and prices remained weak. On the external market, as of June 25, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was US $733 / T, up 0.41% in the week, compared with June 18.

On the crude oil side, the market is optimistic about the recovery prospects of crude oil demand, the U.S. crude oil inventory continues to decline, and international oil prices continue to rise. Brent rose $2.71 / barrel this week, or 3.69 percent, on June 18; WTI rose $2.41/barrel, or 3.36 percent.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI prices in East China rose this week, with domestic products of 13866.67 yuan / ton, up 2.72% from last week, up 24.55% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, with the price of 6500 yuan / ton, up 58.54% year on year. Asia closed at $918-920 / T FOB Korea and $936-938 / T CFR China as of June 25.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The prospect of crude oil market is good, supporting the price of toluene; The downstream follow-up is general, some downstream devices are overhauled, and the demand is weak. In general, toluene still maintains weak shock in the short term. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of crude oil, external market trend, maintenance and maintenance of toluene plant, inventory of toluene port and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene price.