According to the commodity index system of business community, the natural rubber commodity index on May 31 was 38.11, down 0.77 points from yesterday, down 61.89% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 39.70% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

Data monitoring shows that on May 31, 2021, the main contract of HuJiao 09 was reduced by 350 yuan / ton, and other contracts were generally reduced by 300-450 yuan / ton. The spot price of domestic all latex fluctuated with the market, and the price of East China was generally reduced by 200 yuan / ton: the price of Baodao whole milk was 12750 yuan / ton in 19, Guangken Island whole milk was 12750 yuan / ton in 19, and SINOCHEM whole milk was 12750 yuan / ton in 19, The price of Yunxiang whole milk was 12850 yuan / ton in 19 years, that of 3L glue in Vietnam was 12700-12750 yuan / ton in 19 years, and that of hongmanli cigarette glue in Thailand was 19700-19800 yuan / ton in 20 years.

Factor analysis: at present, natural rubber is in the normal supply period of new rubber, although the supply of glue is slow, it will enter June, and it is certain that the pressure on the supply side will increase; At the same time, the domestic production area factory order situation is not good, the new glue price has been reduced; The operating rate of downstream tire enterprises continued to decline, and their purchasing demand for rubber decreased due to the decline of tire market demand; At present, the domestic natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and the market expects that the import volume will be low.

Future small test: new rubber supply continues to increase, downstream construction continues to decline, natural rubber supporting role is not strong, medium-term weak possibility. Considering that there is a lot of buying around 13000 yuan / ton of HuJiao, it is more likely that the price of natural rubber will fluctuate in the range of 2000 yuan / ton in the short term.