1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s block list data, aniline continued to be stable this week. On January 31, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7800-7900 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, the price of aniline was 8000-8100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 21.54% higher than that in the same period of last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, Sinopec’s price of pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton to 4800 yuan / ton this week. Due to the impact of public health events and the impact of low price hydrogenated benzene in northern China, the price of pure benzene continued to decline, and the North South arbitrage window opened. The inflow of low-cost goods in North China, coupled with the reduction of logistics in the early spring festival, led to the rebound of pure benzene market price. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port decreased by about 2000 tons compared with last week. The port’s pick-up was limited, and the inventory decline was small. On Sunday (January 31), the price of pure benzene was 4330-4800 yuan / ton (average price 4626 yuan / ton), up 136 yuan / ton or 3.03% from last week.

The price of nitric acid remained stable this week, and the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2016.67 yuan / ton on Friday (January 29). Compared with the beginning of the month, the price decreased by 33.33 yuan / ton, or 1.63%; compared with the same period last year, the price increased by 27.37%.

The capacity of some aniline plants is restored, Jiangsu Fuqiang is expected to ship, and the market supply may increase in the later stage, so the operators are cautious. This week aniline Market Stability consolidation.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, Ningbo Zhongjin delayed the restart time, and the market supply is expected to decrease by the end of February. Near the Spring Festival, some downstream terminals have been shut down one after another, and the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is on the high side, so the demand for pure benzene is weakening. Benzene and its downstream are expected to enter consolidation period next week, and the price is expected to be relatively stable. Continue to pay attention to the downstream procurement situation, the trend of pure benzene plant, crude oil, external market and styrene.

Some of the aniline plants with reduced load in the early stage will resume normal operation, and the aniline of Jiangsu Fuqiang new material will be sold out soon. It is expected that the market supply will increase in the later stage. With the recovery of aniline maintenance units in succession, the market supply side is expected to increase, but it is expected that the consolidation will remain stable before the festival. Continue to pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand side, the operation load of aniline plant and the new aniline situation in the market.