1、 Price trend
Preparation before the festival — aniline price rebounds
Before the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises prepared goods and released their inventory rapidly. The price rebounded from 6400 yuan / ton in mid January to 6500 yuan / ton.
Affected by the epidemic, a large number of aniline factories shut down to reduce the burden
After the festival, affected by the epidemic situation, the time for domestic chemical enterprises to return to work has been extended, the time limit for aniline downstream to return to work is unknown, and the market demand is weak. In addition, due to the limitation of logistics and transportation, the inventory of aniline enterprises is accumulated, and a large number of aniline factories run or stop to control the inventory. In addition, the export volume of aniline increased, and the price rose continuously to 6900 yuan / ton in early March.
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“Bad” and “good”
Cost side: affected by the epidemic, crude oil plummeted, and pure benzene fell by more than 55% from March to early April. Cost “waist fold”, aniline support significantly weakened. Supply and demand side: Although the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled, downstream enterprises have resumed work and production, but the overall demand is still limited, and aniline enterprises are under great pressure to ship. With the outbreak of the epidemic in foreign countries, the demand for foreign chemical products has softened rapidly, some export orders for aniline have been cancelled, and the surplus aniline has been transferred to China, resulting in increased market supply pressure. Under the pressure of multiple short interest rates, the price of aniline continued to decline until August. In August, the aniline Market was mainly stable and in the loss stage.
The influence of cost is weakened, and the influence of fundamentals is strengthened
In March, the price of pure benzene decreased continuously, the price of aniline followed the decline of raw materials in the first half of the month, and began to stabilize in the second half of the month, reflecting a strong resilience. In July, the price of raw material pure benzene rebounded, with an increase of more than 6%, but the overall increase of aniline was weak, and the loss expanded. Aniline prices rose more than 50% from September to October, but pure benzene market was weak and volatile. The main reason is that the impact of cost on the price of aniline is weakened, and the downstream demand is the main reason affecting the price of aniline in 2020. Downstream demand and aniline factory inventory directly affect the price of aniline.
Hot market, tight spot supply
Demand side: the downstream demand of “jinjiuyinshi” recovered well, among which the MDI market was hot, supporting the price of aniline to rise. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased, the market transaction atmosphere is strong, the price of aniline is separated from the raw material pure benzene, and the market price is rising all over the world. On the supply side: Tianji and Lianheng signed shipping contracts, which reduced the number of spot goods; Nanhua and Wanhua main supply contracts, but there were few bulk goods; the overall inventory of aniline enterprises was not high, coupled with the parking and maintenance of individual enterprises, the overall market supply was tight. Stimulated by multiple positive factors, the market of aniline overturned. From September to October, aniline rose by more than 50% to a high of 6666.67 yuan / ton.
Environmental inspection + Weather Factors — aniline ushers in the high point of the year
11、 February is the traditional off-season of aniline, but in 2020, the off-season will not be weak, and aniline will increase by more than 18% in two months. Some aniline enterprises continue to carry out contract orders, factory inventory is generally not high, and spot delivery is limited. With the arrival of rain and snow in the north, transportation is limited, which helps to climb the peak again. Affected by environmental protection inspection, the load of aniline plants in Jinling and Huatai in Shandong Province has been reduced all the way. In addition, the cost has been warmer, and the price of aniline has risen to the highest point of the whole year – 7900 yuan / ton.
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