Commodity index: on November 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.23, unchanged with yesterday, 17.64% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 6.44% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Price quotation: according to the monitoring data, in September 2020, the manufacturer’s production was normal, and the quotation fluctuation was very small. Although in the “golden nine”, the demand did not appear much exuberant in that month, and the transaction atmosphere was relatively peaceful. Only in the two days at the end of the month, the price increased by about 400 yuan / ton, only about 2.82%; in October, the trend was still stable, and only on the 14th, the mainstream price was about 60 yuan/ Tons of small increase, and the price of 15 immediately callback, “silver 10″ overall rise is not obvious. However, in November, the domestic price of polyacrylamide is facing upward pressure. Although the domestic mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (PAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million) is only increased from 14300 yuan / ton to about 14400 yuan / ton, the overall range is not large. However, in fact, due to the constraints of acrylonitrile procurement cost, the ex factory price of many polyacrylamide is increased by 500 yuan / ton At the same time, in the heating season, the environmental protection inspection is strict, the manufacturers stop production, the price of acrylonitrile is increased greatly, and the price of polyacrylamide rises sharply. In fact, the supply of goods determines whether the price rises, while the downstream demand plays a general role.

Industrial chain: upstream: acrylonitrile rose sharply this month. According to the business agency, at the end of October, the mainstream quotation of domestic acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan / ton. This month, the price of acrylonitrile was raised repeatedly, with a single increase of 400-500 yuan / ton, and the monthly increase of 2000-3000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream is about 12250 yuan / ton, and this week the increase is as high as 1950 yuan / ton. Situation of acrylonitrile unit in this month: Sinopec’s settlement price of acrylonitrile products sold in November was 9900 yuan / ton in North China and 9850 yuan / ton in East China; Zhejiang Petrochemical Company had a maintenance plan in December for its 260000 ton acrylonitrile unit, and the specific situation needs to be further determined; after the 130000 ton acrylonitrile unit of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down in early August, there was a restart plan in December; Sinopec’s 240000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, postponed the restart until November 25, and the plant was shut down for maintenance on October 20. Downstream: in the current winter, the number of downstream water treatment project construction enterprises is reduced, and the demand for raw materials is weak.

Industry: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride. In November, faced with the big influence factors of heating season this year, polyacrylamide manufacturers stopped production more, and recently faced a sharp rise in acrylonitrile, the downstream demand was weak, the upstream cost was high, the pressure of polyacrylamide manufacturers was large, and the price rise was inevitable.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current domestic economic momentum is good, the price of acrylonitrile, the raw material in the upstream, has risen sharply this month, and the pressure on the cost side has increased sharply; however, due to the seasonal impact on its demand, the demand in winter is not good, and the downstream support for the price rise is insufficient. However, the price of polyacrylamide will rise after the end of December due to the high demand of manufacturers and the price of polyacrylamide will rise after the end of December.