1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province fell slightly. The quoted price dropped from 1766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1743.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 23.34 yuan / ton or 1.32%, and 4.65% lower than that of the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on August 21 was 81.09.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week fell slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1750 yuan / ton, which was 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1740 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Mingshui urea was 1740 yuan / ton at the end of this week, 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, in terms of supply, the start-up of some domestic urea enterprises has continued to decline recently, and some maintenance enterprises have plans to resume production next week, and the start-up may slightly increase, but the overall operating rate has little fluctuation. In terms of demand, at present, domestic agricultural demand is in the off-season, the just demand is light, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods, the starting load of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is not high, and there is no expectation of startup and improvement in the short term,

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea have been up and down this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has dropped slightly from 2470.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2406.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.56%, 20.04% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3083.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 1.62% compared with last year Over the same period, the year-on-year decline of 2.08%, overall, this week’s urea cost support is weak. This week, the price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly, rising by 3.11% from 5366.67 at the beginning of the week to 5533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

3、 Future forecast

In late August, the market price of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement, and the market trading atmosphere is weakened. It is expected that the short-term urea market will mainly fluctuate and fall.