1、 Price data

As of July 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 4540 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from 4550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha in local refining was about 4350-4500 yuan / ton.

The naphtha commodity index on July 17 was 56.00, unchanged with yesterday, down 45.43% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), and 32.58% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Last week, the price of naphtha decreased slightly, and the pressure of inventory gradually appeared.

Upstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the international crude oil market fluctuates within a narrow range of 40 US dollars, with the positive and negative market offsetting each other, and the market sentiment falls into anxiety. On the one hand, the economy is still in a slow recovery period, and various economic indicators are in order. At present, the rhythm and effect of oil production reduction in oil producing countries are also commendable. On the other hand, the epidemic situation in the United States, Brazil and other countries is still relatively serious, and the number of new cases continues to soar, which makes the worry about crude oil demand rise obviously, and the oil price falls into a bottleneck period.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic toluene market price continued to fall last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3400 yuan / ton, down 2.29% from the previous week. The domestic xylene market price also fell last week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3580 yuan / ton, down 2.72% from the previous week. Domestic inventory pressure gradually highlights, the risk of oversupply has been hyped again.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of the business agency believe that the naphtha refining industry fell slightly last week, the manufacturers gradually accumulated their stocks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was general. It is expected that the price of local refining and hydrogenation naphtha will continue to decline in the near future, with the average price range of 4200-4400 yuan / ton.