1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong rose slightly, and the quotation rose from 1643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1650.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.41%, and a decrease of 14.36% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on July 10 was 76.74.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. Yangmei plain urea quoted 1640 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1630 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; the urea of Mingshui Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down for maintenance this week and was expected to ship on July 14.

From the perspective of market demand, at present, there is some agricultural demand in North China and central China, but the support is weak; in terms of industrial demand, the downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises have low operating load, and their procurement is cautious. They purchase on demand, use as they are purchased and follow up appropriately. In terms of supply: the early production reduction and maintenance devices have been restored, and the spot supply has increased slightly. International: India’s mmtc announced a new round of urea bidding on July 9. The bid opening date is July 17, the bid closing date is July 24, and the shipping date is August 20.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall price of urea upstream products rose slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, with the quotation rising from 2443.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2453.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.41%, and a year-on-year decrease of 23.97% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 3083.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3116.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. It increased by 1.08%, decreased by 4.88% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the urea cost support this week is strong. This week, the quotation of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber sheet factory had a general enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a negative impact on the urea price.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of July, the market of urea in Shandong Province fluctuated slightly. According to urea analysts of the business club, the current agricultural demand is slightly down, and the single downstream industry is more active in urea procurement. In addition, with the printing mark approaching, it is expected that the short-term urea market will rise slightly.