1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the trend of domestic toluene market was stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3480 yuan / ton, down 0.57% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

The overall price of toluene this week is stable. At present, the downstream demand is general, and the market trading atmosphere is not active. Compared with the previous period, the market price is slightly weak. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3500 yuan / ton. As the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not clear, the market is concerned about the trend of oil price and the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of the global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the overall fluctuation of international oil prices this week was not big. On the one hand, the new crown epidemic in the United States and other countries broke out again, raising demand concerns. Libya may resume production, and OPEC may reduce the scale of production reduction in August, which puts pressure on oil prices. However, the economic data showed good performance, the global stock market rose, which boosted the confidence of economic recovery, improved the prospect of crude oil demand, and EIA crude oil inventory was large As a result, Russia’s output has declined, providing support for oil prices. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was up 5.76%, Brent futures was up 5.29%, WTI futures was up 5.46%, and Dubai futures was up 1.93%.

In terms of downstream, TDI, the market continues to decline, dealers’ offers continue to go down, and the downstream mentality tends to be cautious. At present, the domestic goods with bill of lading are quoted at 9500-9700 yuan / ton, and Shanghai goods with bills are quoted at 9900-10000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will still be weak. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4800 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 523 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 541 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market price of toluene will adjust slightly next week.