1、 Price trend
According to the data of business agency, on June 19, the average ex factory price of oil-based glycol in North China was 3617 yuan / ton, 133 yuan / ton lower than last week, down 3.56%.
On June 18, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3530 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton, or 0.70%, compared with the same period last week.
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2、 Analysis of influencing factors
As of June 18, the glycol inventory in the main reservoir area of East China was about 1316500 tons, an increase of 7900 tons or 0.60% compared with last Thursday, and an increase of 29500 tons or 2.29% compared with this Monday. Continuous high accumulation.
In terms of shipment, this week, the main port of Zhangjiagang delivered about 6700 tons per day, and Taicang delivered about 7600 tons per day to the two warehouses. The overall delivery volume is slightly better than that of last week, but it has continued to be low in recent days.
At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 55%, down one percentage point from last week, and that of polyester is about 87%, down about 1.35% from last week.
In terms of units, on June 16, Sinopec’s integrated refining and chemical project, located in Donghai Island, Guangdong Province, was officially completed and put into operation. The project is expected to open the whole refining process by the end of July and the whole chemical process by the end of August, involving 400000 tons of glycol production capacity. Yangzi BASF’s 340000 ton glycol integrated unit has been overhauled, and the upstream unit has been put into operation and restarted. It is expected that the glycol link will be able to be produced around the weekend. Whether in the near future or in the long term, the supply pressure is further increased.
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In terms of futures, due to the recent continuous rise in crude oil, supporting the strength of chemicals, glycol futures prices also rose.
3、 Analysis and prediction
Although due to the increase of crude oil, the price of glycol has increased recently. But back to glycol products themselves, due to the high inventory, the downstream construction is insufficient and the shipment is not smooth, and the source of imported goods keeps flowing, resulting in continuous accumulation of inventory. In addition, there are plans to restart many units at the end of June, when domestic supply will increase. Therefore, in the long run, glycol market tends to be pessimistic.
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