1、 Price trend
According to the monitoring data of business association, weak operation of domestic soda ash this week is the main. The average market price at the beginning of the week in East China was about 1283.33 yuan / ton, while the average market price at the end of the week was 1266.67 yuan / ton, down 1.3%, down 31.53% compared with the same period last year. On June 7, the commodity index of light soda ash was 64.96, flat with that of yesterday, down 44.88% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 2.87% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
2、 Market analysis
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Raw materials: the raw salt has entered the centralized production period, and the contradiction between supply and demand is increasing. Due to the time period of centralized production of sea salt, a large number of new salt needs to be stored in warehouses, while the demand of the downstream market is reduced. At present, the price of many salt producing areas in China has dropped. This week, the operation rate of soda ash manufacturers nationwide is about 75%.
At present, the mainstream price of domestic light soda ash Market
Regional price (yuan / ton up and down)
North China 1300-1450 0
East China 1100-1250 0
Huazhong 1050-1150
Weak consolidation of domestic light soda market, light market atmosphere, no obvious improvement of downstream market demand, general market transactions, it is expected that the price of soda will be more weak consolidation operation in the short term.
Demand: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of glass in the beginning of the week is 17.85 yuan / square meter, the average price at the end of the week is 18.3 yuan / square meter, and the price in the week is increased by 1.01%. However, the glass inventory at the end of May was 60 million heavy boxes, down about 30% from the beginning of the month, and the inventory was cleared quickly. However, at present, the glass inventory is still a big obstacle, which causes most enterprises to purchase on demand, and it is difficult to support the soda ash market in the short term. In the near future, the willingness of cold repair and resumption of production and ignition of new production lines has increased. Downstream processing enterprises and traders are relatively cautious in their mentality. They just need to purchase, and they are mainly used as they enter.
| PVA |
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 22nd week of 2020 (6.1-6.5), there are three kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, one kind of commodities falling and one kind of commodities rising and falling to 0. The main commodities rising were PVC (3.68%), caustic soda (2.03%), hydrochloric acid (1.14%); the main commodities falling were light soda (- 1.30%). This week’s average was up or down 1.11%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is flat and the transaction is general, and the overall pressure on enterprise inventory is still large. Although the manufacturer plans to reduce the parking maintenance inventory, the overall transaction is still average. In the short term, affected by the high stock of soda ash and high stock of glass, the short-term trend will remain stable. The short-term goal is still to de stock, and it is predicted that the weak stable operation of soda ash will be the main one in the short term.
| http://www.pva-china.net |