1、 Price trend

In April 2020, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose first and then fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business association, the price of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 5233 yuan / ton, and the market price of cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 5320 yuan / ton, up 1.66% in the month. The price is 48.68% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in the first ten days of the month, the raw materials and demand before the Qingming Festival are surrounded by many empty spaces. Cyclohexanone is manufactured in Shandong at 4500-4600 yuan / ton, and the market in East China is around 5000 yuan / ton. OPEC and its production reduction allies may reach a global crude oil production reduction agreement, and the market of cyclohexanone has the phenomenon of low price. After the festival, the raw material pure benzene market rose, and the solvent Market concentrated to take the goods. Driven by the cost and demand, cyclohexanone rose in a wide range. Shandong factory rose to 5800-5900 yuan / ton, and East China market offered 6200-6400 yuan / ton. In the last ten days of the month, due to the high price, the phenomenon of whether there is market price or not is more obvious. The speculation atmosphere turns to light. The market of cyclohexanone starts to fall back. The downstream chemical fiber factory adopts cyclohexanone due to cost and other factors. Under the support of a small number of chemical fiber single, the price of Shandong cyclohexanone factory slowly returns to the normal level of 4750-4800 yuan / ton. The end of the month is close to the May Day holiday. The downstream chemical fiber and solvent concentration just need to take the goods. In addition, Shandong Haili does not have the goods. Chongqing Huafeng will stop for maintenance in the second ten days of the month. The low price offer of the factory will be reduced, and the market will slightly increase. As the holiday is near, the market transaction atmosphere is flat.

Industry chain: raw materials: pure benzene: this month, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell, and the price rise and fall roughly follow the fluctuation of crude oil. As a result of a large increase in social bottoming behavior, the number of pure benzene buying increased significantly, showing a rapid rise and slow decline as a whole.

Caprolactam: crude oil prices rebounded briefly and strongly in early April on optimistic expectations for OPEC + production reduction negotiations. However, due to the fact that the price of domestic commodity market has basically fallen to the historical low, low price attracts the advantage of superimposed cost end, which leads to the mood of bottom reading in the market. First, the downstream PA6 conventional spinning chips actively copied the bottom. After the chips of the polymerization plant were oversold, caprolactam was concentrated. In addition, pure benzene rose with the price of crude oil, caprolactam was benefited by both cost and demand, and the market followed the rebound. In the middle of the year, the atmosphere of downstream conventional spinning and slicing was cooled. However, the high market heat of mask ear band boosted the demand for high-speed spinning and slicing, once again supporting caprolactam. In addition, at that time, sanning, Juhua and stone refining units were shut down for maintenance. Under the condition of tight supply, caprolactam rose to a high of 9000 yuan / ton for the second time.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in April 2020, there are 39 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 26 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 29.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase rate are acetone (77.02%), acrylic acid (21.76%) and hydrogenated benzene (20.86%). There are 45 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 21 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 23.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 31.64%), butadiene (- 24.14%) and hydrochloric acid (- 22.37%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.37%.

3、 Future forecast

On the cost side, it is expected that the overall performance of pure benzene in May will be warmer than that in April due to the improvement of downstream operation rate, and the market mentality will be better. The industry has a good intention to purchase pure benzene in May and June, which will help the price of pure benzene rise after the festival in early May. In the second half of the month, considering the shortage of port inventory, and the subsequent centralized arrival of imported goods will cause shipping pressure on the pure benzene in the reservoir area, and the price may be restrained. On the supply side, in the near future, Chongqing Huafeng plans to restart, Shandong Haili will not be exported temporarily (for a short time), Jiangsu Haili Dafeng plans to restart in the middle of May, Fujian Shenyuan phenol to cyclohexanone plant plans to stop in May, and the market spot supply is expected to increase slightly. From the perspective of demand, it is expected that the price difference between cyclohexanone and pure benzene is still in the range of hydration oxidation production cost, and the profit of oxidation process is low or small loss. It is expected that there will still be a small number of chemical fiber sheets purchased due to high production cost in May, and the market demand for solvents is limited. Analysts of cyclohexanone in the business community predict that it is still difficult to get rid of the oversupply of cyclohexanone in the spot market in May, with specific attention to the raw material pure benzene market.