1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.58% from 1716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1726.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 15.93% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 80.31 on April 17.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1720 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1760 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the agricultural demand is relatively low, and some areas need to make up for the shortage; the industrial demand is general, and the production load of rubber plate factories and compound fertilizer enterprises is acceptable, so follow up the order making up as required. Supply side: at present, some urea plants are under maintenance or short-term shutdown, and the spot market supply is slightly tight. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

Industry chain: the upstream products overall look down this week: the price of natural gas is down, the quotation is down 2.24% from 3280.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3206.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 10.34% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia is temporarily stable, the quotation is 3216.67 yuan / ton, down 9.05% compared with the same period of last year, overall, the urea cost support this week is weak. The quotation of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 5200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.28%. The downstream rubber plate factory had general enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a negative impact on the urea price.

3、 Future forecast

In late April, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly up slightly. Urea analysts of business club believe that at present, agricultural demand is weak, and downstream industry has general enthusiasm for urea procurement. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.