1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2133 yuan / ton on March 23, 2100 yuan / ton on March 30, and the price dropped 1.56%. On March 30, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 69.73, down 0.56 points from yesterday, down 30.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 12.30% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on March 23 was 2225 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on March 30 was 2225 yuan / ton. The price remained stable. On March 30, DAP commodity index was 66.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.55% from 102.98 (2011-10-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.14% from 65.62, the lowest point on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium: at present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1900-2100 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: at present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of raw phosphate rock is stable this week, and the market is running smoothly. At present, the reference price of phosphate rock is 406.67 yuan / ton. This week’s sulfur price remained stable at a high level and the market’s rise was suspended. At present, the reference price of sulfur is 653.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that due to the large supply and reduced demand, the price of ammonium phosphate began to fall after the market rose in the early stage. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have sufficient stock and weak demand. It is expected that the gravity of Monoammonium will continue to decline in the later period, and the weak finishing of diammonium will be the main trend.