1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on February 1 was 3090 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month (29 days) was 3053.33 yuan / ton, down 1.19% in the month, 30.71% compared with the same period last year. On March 5, the LNG commodity index was 75.67, up 0.25 points from yesterday, down 63.79% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 9.91% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of March 5, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3100 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3030 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. Zizhou LNG plant was 3130 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2320 yuan / ton Right, the LNG price of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3370 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. is 3080 yuan / ton. The price of liquid in various regions is up and down.

Market analysis: in February, the trend of LNG rose and fell, and the overall trend was up and down. Since February, the trend of LNG has been poor, falling continuously. Affected by public health events, most of the downstream plants are delayed to start, traffic control is strict, some of the liquid plants are in a state of wait-and-see, and the price of liquid continues to decline. Since the middle of February, all regions began to resume work one after another, with a certain increase in demand, but still weak. Affected by poor shipment, LNG plants have increased liquid level, LNG plants are actively discharging, market breadth is falling, and the low level is stuck. From 0:00 on February 17 to the end of the prevention and control work, toll roads across the country are free of vehicle tolls, and LNG transportation conditions are improved. Most regions in China have cancelled the prevention and control stations set on high-speed toll stations and national and provincial trunk roads since 0:00 on February 21-24, respectively, and many traffic has been recovered, which is conducive to the shipment of LNG manufacturers. The start-up of the liquid plant has been resumed one after another, the operating rate has increased, the LNG plant has actively discharged the storage, the shipment situation has improved, and the prices in some regions have been rising continuously. From 17th to 24th, it rose 6.33% in a row, bringing a short-term market. Near the end of the month, with the sharp decline of crude oil and liquefied gas market, there is a certain impact on LNG. In addition, with the increase of start-up of manufacturers, the production is gradually increasing, and the supply of goods is sufficient. After the price is raised in the early stage, the volume of transactions is not as expected, and the inventory is increasing. The liquid plants follow the market, and successively reduce the prices. At the end of the month, LNG prices end in a decline.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in February 2020, among which one is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top three commodities are petroleum coke (26.38%), dynamic coal (2.09%) and coking coal (0.79%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are liquefied gas (- 15.59%), MTBE (- 15.56%), dimethyl ether (- 10.08%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 3.68%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analysts of the business association, in March, the LNG market showed a mixed situation, with some liquid prices in the North rising slightly and those in the South falling. At present, the competition between land and sea is encouraging. Under the impact of imported low-cost gas, domestic gas is afraid of insufficient power to rise. It is expected that the market will mainly consolidate in the short term.