Price data

According to the data from the business associations, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in September was 1 228.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1 206.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, falling by 22.20 yuan/ton in the month, with a monthly increase and decrease of -1.81%. In September, the market price of petroleum coke rose first and then fell.

The Petroleum Coke Commodity Index on September 30 was 93.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.68% from the cyclical peak of 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and up 40.30% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-30 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: In September, the delivery of petroleum coke was stable as a whole, with low stocks in the first ten days, and the price of petroleum coke rose due to the dramatic increase of international crude oil. In the second ten days, refineries cleared their stocks before the holidays, as well as the five restrictions on individual refineries’transportation vehicles, it was difficult for purchasing enterprises to dispatch vehicles. Petroleum coke prices fell by 20-60 yuan/ton this month.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, the US WTI crude oil was $56.71 / barrel at the beginning of the month, at the end of the month, it was 55.91 US dollars / barrel, the monthly rise and fall was -1.41%; Brent crude oil was 61.08 US dollars / barrel at the beginning of the month, at the end of the month, it was 61.91 US dollars / barrel, the monthly decline was 1.36%. In September, the crude oil market rose in panic because of the attack on Saudi oil equipment; since the attack, the situation has stabilized, Saudi Arabia has not reduced oil exports, and U.S. inventories have increased, and international oil prices have fallen sharply. Downstream: before the National Day holiday, the environmental protection inspection in the area is strict, and some enterprises have reduced emissions by about 30%. However, at present, it has little influence on the calcining coking enterprises, and the exchange is stable. Domestic aluminium ingot prices rose first and then fell in September. Prices of aluminium ingots continued to run strongly in August. Prices of aluminium ingots began to decline after the Mid-Autumn Festival. As of September 27, the average market price of aluminium (99.70) was 14046.67 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke in business associations predict that in September, the market of Petroleum Coke will rise first and then fall. There is no obvious advantage downstream, and the impact of environmental protection, transportation and other factors. The price range of petroleum coke in October is expected to be around 1050-1250 yuan/ton.