Price Trend

This week, the domestic liquefied natural gas market stopped falling and rebounded, all the way up. At the beginning of the week (02), the average price of domestic LNG market was 2990 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week (06), the average price was 3056.67 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 2.23%, which was 20.63% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: According to the data of business associations, as of September 06, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. is 320 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 2950 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG Plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is about 2550 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Qinshui New Olympics in Shanxi is 3200 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan Green Energy Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3100 yuan/ton. The Qinghua Energy Group in Xinjiang has the LNG price of 3200 yuan/ton. LNG Company Limited is priced at 3300 yuan/ton.

Market analysis: The liquefied natural gas market improved this week. From August 31 to September 10, PetroChina restricted the supply of natural gas to LNG plants in Shaanxi. The production load of LNG plants was at a low level, and the overall supply in Northwest China began to decrease. Under this influence, prices in some areas began to stop falling and rebound, and continued to rise. Because of the low level of liquid price in the early period, upstream part of the upstream hang upstream shipment. Because of the consideration of production costs, liquid factories have a strong willingness to push prices, and the surrounding areas also adjust prices with the price rise in the Northwest region, fluctuating slightly and going on as a whole. However, this year’s overall market downturn, environmental policy, terminal demand is limited, upstream continuous pricing can not be recognized downstream, so the market has limited room for growth.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business associations believe that the price of LNG has increased, but the high price of LNG makes the downstream delivery more weak, the market demand is insufficient, and the terminal consumption capacity of environmental production restriction is weakened. With the end of the northwest gas restriction, the LNG market will return to normal at that time. It is expected that the price of LNG will be mainly consolidated in the short term.