Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to decline this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 10066 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 9000 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 10.60% in the week, which was 25.00% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market continued to fall this week, pure benzene market was consolidated horizontally, cost support was relatively stable. Shandong Haili Power Plant began to be officially exported this week, and the spot supply of cyclohexanone increased. In the past week, Sinopec’s caprolactam has been listed for two consecutive downgrades. The market price of caprolactam has fallen sharply, the market mentality is pessimistic, the chemical fiber plant has more overhauls, and Shenyuan has not yet restarted. The overall demand for cyclohexanone in the chemical fiber market has not increased, the contradiction between supply and demand has gradually become prominent, the purchasing mood of the chemical fiber and solvent market is not good, the shipments of manufacturers and traders have been blocked many times. Reduce the ex-factory price, traders follow the market, the market trading atmosphere is colder.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week the price consolidation of pure benzene in East China, East China mainstream talks in 4450-4550 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream talks in 4200-4350 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, due to trade tensions, the East China market was more cautious and spot purchases fell to 4400 yuan/ton. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic liquid spot market of caprolactam fell sharply. Demand continues to be short, downstream PA6 chip market has entered a downward trend since April. Inventory of PA6 aggregation plant continues to be high, and aggregation link is losing money. Therefore, the start-up load of PA6 aggregation plant has fallen a lot. In May, terminal demand continued to slump, PA6 polymerization began to decline, especially in some factories where raw materials were extracted from the outside world, the demand for caprolactam decreased to less than 50%. In addition, this week some caprolactam factories restarted discharging, caprolactam supply increased, manufacturers increased inventory pressure, prices fell sharply.

3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term cyclohexanone plant except Jiangsu Haili, parking overhaul has basically been normal driving, if not unintentionally, the spot export volume may remain relatively stable. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, Nanjing Dongfang has no plan to restart in the short term. The Yongrong cyclohexanone plant starts normally and basically meets the demand for caprolactam. In the short term, Shenyuan has no purchase plan for cyclohexanone. Next week, the demand is basically stable. Overall, cyclohexanone may still be in a supply-over-demand pattern. Cyclohexanone analysts expect the cyclohexanone market to continue to weaken next week.