Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6300 yuan/ton on March 1, domestic PVC quoted 6445 yuan/ton on March 29, with a small price fluctuation ranging from 100 to 300 yuan/ton. This month, the fluctuation of PVC market is mainly upward.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: In early March, the weather warmed up, downstream infrastructure demand gradually recovered, and the spot market atmosphere of PVC was running smoothly. At the same time, the start-up rate of PVC manufacturers was about 60%, the supply was sufficient, and the overall market was relatively stable. In late March, the supply of goods in East China and North China was tight, the supply contracted and the demand was still acceptable, which led to a slight increase in the quotation of manufacturers. At the same time, PVC futures rose in late March, pushing up spot market prices, increasing 100-300 yuan/ton as a whole, and the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was 6250-6650 yuan/ton as of March 29.

Raw material: The price of raw material calcium carbide in the upstream rose sharply this month, with an overall increase of 13.59%. Influenced by the support of raw materials, the price of PVC in the downstream rose by 2.30%. The demand in the downstream terminal increased, which led to the overall recovery of the market in the industrial chain and expected to be better.

Industry: On March 28, the rubber and plastic index was 733 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.85% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), up 27.26% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This month, commodity market consolidation is dominant, the overall trend of rubber and plastic industry is slightly shocked.

3. Future Market Forecast

The PVC market in March was in a recovery period and the market price was on the rise. It is expected that the demand side of infrastructure and real estate industry will gradually increase in the future, the overall stock of the market will be at a low level, the second quarter is expected to be good, and the future market is expected to oscillate upward, but the price rise will restrain the actual volume of demand side, downstream purchasing will be dominated by just demand, and supply-demand game dominates price trend. It is expected that the mainstream price of PVC 5 will be 6250-6800 yuan/ton.