Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have been weak and stable this week. As of May 16th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25 μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10133.33 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week’s average price and a decrease of about 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials, the price of raw material PP remained stable this week. The mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders was around 7821.43 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from last week’s (7821.43 yuan/ton) and a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month’s (7842.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP has remained stable but still at a high level this week, with strong cost support and pressure on CPP film prices.

In terms of supply: membrane enterprises have sufficient inventory and still have surplus. After the May Day holiday, membrane enterprises have resumed work in succession, and the pressure on the supply side is still there.

In terms of demand: In May, the film industry entered a off-season, with enterprises mainly relying on replenishment operations for urgent needs. Terminal inquiries were cautious, and there was no significant improvement in the trading atmosphere on the market.

Future Market Forecast

Entering the May off-season, market demand releases limited inventory, resulting in weak transactions. Although prices have weakened, there is not much room for film companies to make concessions. It is expected that CPP film prices may experience weak fluctuations in the near future

In this cycle {5.8-5.15}, the market price of acetonitrile began to decline. As of May 14th, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 10060.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.20% compared to the beginning of this month (10080.00 yuan/ton). Last week, the price increase of acetonitrile was mainly driven by the increase in suppliers. Later, the operating rate of by-product method enterprises decreased, leading to a tight supply in the local area of East China, providing opportunities for market growth.

Supply side:

Recently, the spot market price of acrylonitrile has experienced a narrow decline. As of May 15th, the benchmark price of acrylonitrile for Shengyishe was 10600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.85% compared to the beginning of this month (10800.00 yuan/ton). The news is currently unclear, and there is still uncertainty in supply changes. In the short term, manufacturer inventories are not high, and there is still an intention to raise prices. Considering that the settlement expectation for this month is still high, the spot market is also cautious and stable in operation. There are plans to restart or increase losses in both the north and south, and the overall news is bearish. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain weak and volatile.

On the demand side:

As downstream demand gradually begins to recover, although there is a demand for restocking after the holiday, the overall performance is still slow. Moreover, the increase in downstream pesticide production after the two sessions is not significant, and some factories still mainly digest early inventory. Although the overall performance is still weak, there are currently no obvious signs of improvement. After a long period of low production and inventory digestion, factories in the pesticide and other fields have limited available sources of goods, and there are expectations of resuming work and increasing demand. Therefore, downstream factories have seen an increase in demand for replenishment since May.

Overall:

Previously, suppliers raised their prices, but due to lack of confidence, some intermediaries took profits during this period. After a brief consolidation, due to a lack of further positive news, the market began to decline. Business Society analysts predict that whether the price of acetonitrile can continue to rise depends on the demand side situation. The supply of acetonitrile will remain saturated for a long time, so the market’s upward space is still limited.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market remained stagnant, with many spot prices showing a sideways trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11333.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as May 6th.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market has remained stable this week, with an average supply side load of over 80% for domestic EVA enterprises. Due to the increase in petrochemical plant load reduction next week, the market supply is expected to tighten. However, due to the continued negative market conditions in the early stage, manufacturers mainly priced horizontally, and overall, EVA suppliers have average support for spot goods.

From the demand side perspective, EVA terminal enterprises have started production steadily and slightly this week, and the stocking situation has remained unchanged in terms of purchasing and consumption logic. The traditional downstream demand for foam shoe materials and cables and wires has not improved, and there are few new orders. The consumption level of photovoltaic materials has limited changes, and there is not a significant increase in post holiday stocking. The negative atmosphere in the market remains, and actual trading is cautious. Merchants have flexible order processing and weak mentality. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have remained stagnant this week. The market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate has not changed much, and the support for the EVA market is relatively weak. The industry load is expected to fall, and the ex factory prices of petrochemical plants are generally flat. The overall development of the demand side is poor, dragging market momentum. It is expected that the spot price of EVA will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the carbon black market price was weak this week. As of the 11th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was at 9566 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of high-temperature coal tar has slightly declined this week. As of the 10th, the price of coal tar was 4702 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of coke has gone through five rounds of increase, which has improved the profitability of most coking enterprises. Some enterprises have even started planning to increase production capacity. This trend indicates that the supply of coal tar market may increase in the future. However, the downstream demand market for high-temperature coal tar has shown weak performance, and the market situation for deep processed products is not optimistic, resulting in some companies still operating at a loss. This situation further suppresses the market situation of high-temperature coal tar, and it is expected that its price will remain weak in the short term.

Production situation: The supply of carbon black in the market is relatively sufficient this week, and most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable production with little change.

In terms of terminals: The shipping pace of the tire industry has significantly slowed down, while the sales performance of the downstream rubber product industry is flat. Overall, the flow rate of goods is average, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow. The demand for raw materials and procurement enthusiasm have significantly decreased. Affected by this, the shipment volume of carbon black enterprises has become sluggish, and the momentum of price increase is clearly lacking in momentum.

Outlook for the future: Strong pressure from the terminal, weak prices in the high-temperature coal tar market, and relatively limited support for the cost of carbon black; At the same time, the downstream market has a relatively low demand for carbon black raw materials, and the demand side is still weak. Therefore, the carbon black market is expected to continue to maintain the current weak operating trend.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of May 9, 2024, the market price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has declined. At present, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is around 70-71000 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials:

According to Business Society, on May 9th, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate was 109200.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74% compared to the beginning of this month (108400.00 yuan/ton).

Downstream aspect:

The purchasing demand atmosphere for downstream electrolyte enterprises is lukewarm, only maintaining the purchase of essential goods. Due to some enterprises having a certain amount of reserves, their demand for raw materials is not active, market transmission is not smooth, and there is no good news.

Post forecast:

According to data analysts from Business Society, due to continuous cost pressures and weak demand from downstream electrolyte companies, the lithium hexafluorophosphate market has been weak and declining recently. More information still needs to be focused on the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has risen this month, with the price of potassium chloride rising from 2366.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2533.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.06%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic potassium chloride market has generally seen an increase in the range of 150-200 yuan/ton this month, with the main upward phase concentrated in the first half of the month and the market operating steadily in the second half. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly in the range of 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the small arrival volume in early April, the domestic market performance was tight, and the price trend was upward, which is also the direct reason for the price increase. But with high prices, downstream factories generally have a resistance to price increases, and the peak season for spring plowing procurement is gradually coming to an end. Most enterprises have replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing. Therefore, potassium chloride did not continue to rise in the second half of the month.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the performance of the downstream potassium fertilizer market is sluggish, with prices mostly declining. The market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this month, dropping from 7310.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.82%. The market price of potassium nitrate has slightly declined this month, dropping from 5062 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4962 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.98%. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is sluggish, which may hinder the price of potassium chloride in the later stage.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The potassium chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that in May, the overall trend of the potassium chloride market may turn weak and consolidation oriented. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has temporarily remained sluggish, but with the weakening of agricultural demand in Northeast China and the weakening of potassium fertilizer demand, potassium chloride procurement may show a downward trend, and compound fertilizer factories mainly produce nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore, the price of potassium chloride may fall weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8378 yuan/ton on April 23, and the average price on April 30 was 8407 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.34% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9470 yuan/ton on April 23, and the average price on April 25 was 9545 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.79% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8507 yuan/ton on April 23, and the average price on April 30 was 8520 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.15% during this period.

Recently, polyethylene has seen a slight increase and the market trend is relatively strong. The centralized maintenance of petrochemical plants has led to a decrease in the supply of polyethylene, with strong quotes from producers and traders and an upward trend; According to data statistics, as of April 25th, the overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries increased by 0.05% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has declined, and during the May Day holiday, the demand for packaging film industry has improved, boosting the polyethylene market; The high volatility of crude oil provides strong cost support.

On April 30th, the polyethylene l2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8498 yuan and closed at 8494 yuan, up 28 yuan, with a maximum of 8527 yuan and a minimum of 8481 yuan, up 0.33%. Recently, polyethylene futures have fluctuated and risen, boosting the spot market.

As the holiday approaches, market trading is gradually weakening, and it is expected that there will be restocking behavior after the holiday. The supply side is still in a centralized maintenance period, and there is not much pressure on the supply side. Agricultural film is gradually entering the off-season, weakening support for the polyethylene market. There is an expectation of a decline in packaging film production. With the positive boost from the supply side, it is expected that polyethylene will fluctuate slightly upwards, but the upward space is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 26th, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3483 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average market price of compound fertilizer was 3460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% from the beginning of last month.

Upstream raw material trends

urea

This month, domestic urea prices have fluctuated and risen. On April 29th, the price of urea was 2435 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the price of urea was 2415 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month.

In the first half of this month, there was support from factory orders, resulting in a slight increase in urea prices. In the second half of the month, the urea market was affected by bearish news from the Indian market, and exports were suppressed. After a slight decline in the urea market, the market returned to fundamentals. With the support of factory orders, urea prices slightly surged, but have not yet broken through the previous period’s decline.

Ammonium phosphate market

The market continues to operate weakly. The decrease in raw material prices has weakened cost support. Spring plowing has entered the final stage, with weak demand in the ammonium phosphate market and limited new transactions. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, and the market supply has decreased.

Monoammonium phosphate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2853 yuan/ton on April 30th. On April 1st, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3096 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 7.56%.

Diammonium phosphate

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3916 yuan/ton on April 30th. On April 1st, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3976 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 1.51%.

Potassium sulfate

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this month was 3250 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this month was 3176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26%.

In April, the domestic potassium sulfate price showed a downward trend, with weak market demand and overall insufficient transactions. Currently, the ex factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 3050-3300 yuan/ton, and the price in the southern market is higher than that in the northern market, with transaction negotiations being the main focus. The operating rate of resource-based potassium sulfate manufacturers is relatively normal, and there has been a delay in the maintenance of the Guotou Luo potassium plant. With the policy of monthly settlement, the current market price for 52% powder sales is mostly between 3150-3350 yuan/ton, and the market price for 50% potassium sulfate powder in the Qinghai water salt system is mostly between 2800-2850 yuan/ton. The transaction volume is negotiable.

In terms of supply and demand

Due to frequent fluctuations in raw materials and poor stocking enthusiasm in the middle and lower reaches, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has changed rapidly in recent times. For example, from mid March to mid April, due to the delay in summer fertilizer preparation, business operations decreased. However, in late April, the flow of goods in the market accelerated, and the preparation time was shortened, resulting in a significant improvement in capacity utilization. To reduce risks, there has been an increase in the practice of enterprises adjusting production based on sales, and the inventory of enterprises has also decreased since mid April.

At present, the order volume of compound fertilizer enterprises is generally sufficient, and most of them have already arranged their orders until mid May, with some even arranging them until late May. With stable orders and sufficient support for goods to be shipped, the willingness of enterprises to adjust prices decreases, and the practical significance of price adjustments becomes relatively limited. With the advancement of summer fertilizer stocking and distribution, the market’s stock situation has begun to improve, and many regions have entered a centralized delivery period.

Future Market Forecast

From the perspective of upstream raw materials for compound fertilizers, price fluctuations have significantly slowed down. Overall, the compound fertilizer market has been stabilizing recently, with price fluctuations gradually easing. It is expected that the compound fertilizer market will maintain overall stability in the near future, with slight fluctuations in some areas, but the overall fluctuation range of the market is relatively limited.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of acetic acid rose first and then fell in April. As of April 30th, the price was 3250 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month’s acetic acid price of 3100 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 4.84%.

As of the end of the month, the price details of acetic acid market in various regions of China in April are as follows:

Region/ April 1st/ April 15th/ April 30th

South China region/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3125 yuan/ton

North China region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 3100 yuan/ton/ 3325 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ 3125 yuan/ton/ 3250 yuan/ton/ 3150 yuan/ton

The acetic acid market rose first and then fell in April. In the first half of the year, the price of acetic acid rose strongly, mainly due to the shutdown and concentrated load reduction of some domestic acetic acid plants, resulting in a significant decrease in the utilization rate of on-site production capacity. Acetic acid manufacturers had a strong intention to increase prices, while downstream restocking was active, and the market trading atmosphere was good. Under the situation of supply shortage, the price of acetic acid continued to rise; In late April, the price of acetic acid weakened and declined. With the recovery of on-site maintenance equipment, the utilization rate of acetic acid production capacity increased, the market supply increased, and the positive effects on suppliers disappeared. The downstream pre holiday stocking sentiment was weak, and considering the holiday high-speed restrictions or the impact on shipping progress, the manufacturer’s quotation was lowered. However, the actual trading atmosphere was light, and the price of acetic acid continued to decline.

The methanol market for raw materials fluctuates in a range. As of April 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2651.67 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.08% compared to the price of 2623.33 yuan/ton on April 1st. In the first ten days, the concentrated spring inspection of methanol plants was average, with the main focus on maintaining high operating levels and weak market prices; In the middle of the month, there was not much contradiction in the fundamentals of methanol, and the production of domestic methanol plants remained at a high level. However, the inventory of sample enterprises in mainland China was relatively low, resulting in a slight increase in methanol prices; In the latter half of the month, the main downstream factories shut down due to insufficient demand support, resulting in poor enterprise shipments and a decrease in methanol prices. At the end of the month, downstream companies began stocking up before holidays, and production companies continued to destock. The domestic methanol market continued to rise and operate.

The downstream acetic anhydride market rose first and then fell in April. On April 30th, the quotation was 5625.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.51% from the beginning of the month’s price of 5487.50 yuan/ton. In mid to early April, the demand for acetic anhydride remained stable, with upstream acetic acid prices rising. The cost support for acetic anhydride was strong, and the price of acetic anhydride rose accordingly; In the latter half of the year, the price of acetic anhydride was adjusted downwards. Under the influence of the decline in upstream acetic acid, the acetic anhydride market was bearish and the price trend declined.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current operating rate of acetic acid enterprises has returned to a relatively high level, with sufficient supply of goods from suppliers. Enterprises are actively stocking up before the holiday, and downstream stocking sentiment is average. Follow up on market entry is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Considering the impact of high-speed speed restrictions during the May Day holiday on enterprise shipments, it is expected that the price of acetic acid will be weak and fluctuate narrowly after the holiday. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream replenishment situation.