According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black has remained stable with an increase this week, and the market is currently operating steadily. As of the 12th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 10266 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the new bidding price for coal tar has slightly increased this week. As of the 12th, the price of coal tar was 5010 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 300 yuan/ton from April 1st, an increase of 5.58%. The cost pressure on downstream factories has increased, and there is a strong resistance to high priced raw materials. There is a certain bearish atmosphere in the market, and the cost of carbon black remains at a high level, providing certain support for the price of carbon black.

Construction status: Most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable construction this week.

In terms of terminals, the tire industry has started operating at a high load, but the shipping speed has significantly slowed down, and the phenomenon of enterprise inventory accumulation has increased. However, due to the fact that most merchants have already reserved inventory in advance, their acceptance of high cost carbon black is limited, and procurement is mainly based on demand. This results in slower shipments of carbon black enterprises and insufficient motivation for price increases.

Looking ahead to the future, due to the rising prices of high-temperature coal tar market, the support for the cost of carbon black will be strengthened; Downstream rubber and tire companies have average enthusiasm for purchasing high priced carbon black, with many inquiries maintaining a low price state. There is currently no significant positive trend on the demand side, and the carbon black market may continue to maintain a stable operating trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam on April 1st was 12694 yuan/ton, and on April 10th, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 12855 yuan/ton. In early April, the price of caprolactam increased by 1.27%.

2、 Market analysis

In early April, the market price of caprolactam increased. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. The maintenance of caprolactam units has increased, resulting in a decrease in market supply and stable downstream demand. The weekly settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13120 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. In early April, the price of pure benzene in China increased. On April 10th, the reference price for pure benzene was 8720.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73% compared to April 1st (8488.83 yuan/ton). As of now, the price of Sinopec pure benzene is 8800 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. In early April, the domestic PA6 market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and various spot prices fluctuated, showing a stable and positive overall trend. As of April 10th, the average reference price of PA6 in China was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% compared to April 1st (14775 yuan/ton).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been relatively strong and rising recently. Cost and supply side support, with an increase in favorable factors. It is expected that the market for caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On April 7th, the rare earth index was 378 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.46% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 39.48% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has increased. As of the 8th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.04 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.32% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.965 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.17% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.555 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.24%; The domestic price trend of terbium series has significantly increased, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.4 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 7.45 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market have significantly increased, with an increase in domestic rare earth market transactions and improved inquiries. Downstream enterprises have recently increased their procurement, and there has been little change in the operating rates of separated enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, resulting in low production of heavy rare earths; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in the price trend of heavy rare earths. Recently, some heavy rare earth raw material imports have been tight, and the supply of heavy rare earth products on the market is relatively tight, leading to an upward trend in the heavy rare earth market.

According to statistics, in February 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%. China’s automotive industry is booming, and the new energy vehicle market has performed particularly well, which has affected the price trend of the heavy rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowing growth rate. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to February 2024 reached 8773.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the price of heavy rare earths has risen.

Market forecast: Recently, there has been an increase in orders and purchases from magnetic material companies, coupled with an improvement in inquiries compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will continue to rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5112.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5087.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%, a month on month decrease of 1.69%, and the current price has dropped by 14.35% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has declined, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic market price of potassium chloride is at a relatively high level, and cost support is still acceptable. However, the transaction volume in the potassium nitrate market is sluggish, and traders mainly ship at low prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the price of potassium nitrate. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has declined. The domestic potassium chloride market is in a slow downward trend, with traders mainly shipping at low prices, and port shipments are still acceptable. Currently, the price of 62% white potassium is mostly around 2300 yuan/ton. In mid to early April, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market has been at a high and firm price, but the market is in a slightly stagnant trading state, with poor sales of potassium nitrate. It is expected that the potassium nitrate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of trichloroethylene in barrels weakened in March. On March 29th, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was 6600 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was 6840 yuan/ton. The market price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased by 3.51% in March.

2、 Analysis and Review

The price of trichloroethylene continues to decline, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement has weakened, and the price of new orders is close to cost. Manufacturers have further weakened their profit sentiment, and dealers have consumed inventory, with a few temporarily leaving. The barrel prices of manufacturers in East China have slightly increased this month, but it is still difficult to boost market activity. Trichloroethylene dispersion has seen a narrow increase in price, with a price range of 4600-4900 yuan/ton in East China and a monthly increase of 100 yuan/ton; The quotation for the Southwest region is 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable within the month; The quotation for North China is 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable within the month.

The domestic market is light, and the export situation is still good. According to customs data, the total export volume of trichloroethylene from January to February was 3987.96 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 1.6%.

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of calcium carbide has continued to rise. On April 1st, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shengyishe was 3000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.45% compared to the beginning of last month (2900.00 yuan/ton). The rapid recovery of profits in calcium carbide production enterprises has boosted their enthusiasm to start production, and their supply capacity has recently shown a significant improvement.

In March, the Asian ethylene market weakened with an average CFR price of $930 per ton in Northeast Asia, a decrease of $20 per ton from the beginning of the month; The average price of CFR in Southeast Asia is $1010 per ton, and the price is stable. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

The liquid chlorine market continues to rise, with factories in Shandong Province priced at 300-500 yuan/ton. Supported by the supply side, the shipment situation of enterprises is good, and the market is operating at a high level.

In terms of demand:

The quota policy for third-generation refrigerants has been implemented, and the pattern of the refrigerant industry continues to optimize. The refrigerant industry as a whole has entered a business cycle, and the price of refrigerant R134a has risen strongly in the first quarter. On April 1st, the benchmark price of R134a from Shengyishe was 30666.67 yuan/ton, which is currently operating at a high level within the year. Export demand needs to be improved, and manufacturers maintain a price stance. At present, the overall stability is maintained.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s trichloroethylene analyst believes that the demand side of the raw material side provides good support for trichloroethylene, and it is expected that trichloroethylene loose water will steadily rise. The trichloroethylene barrel market is mainly driven by inventory consumption and operates weakly.

The market for dichloromethane increased significantly in March. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 29th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2435 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.95% from 2175 yuan/ton in early March. In March, the domestic methane chloride plant started operating steadily, and the supply of dichloromethane was relatively stable; In March, the methanol market for dichloromethane raw materials weakened and the price range of liquid chlorine fluctuated. The cost of dichloromethane still has support; During the peak season of air conditioning, the downstream refrigerant prices of dichloromethane have risen and the production has started steadily, providing support for terminal demand for dichloromethane; In mid to late March, the inventory of dichloromethane enterprises gradually decreased, and the dichloromethane market fluctuated upwards.

In March, the domestic methane chloride plant started operating with narrow fluctuations, and as of the end of March, the domestic methane chloride production was around 70%.

In March, the price of raw material methanol weakened and the price range of liquid chlorine fluctuated, and the cost of dichloromethane continued to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2593 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.35% from 2740 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; In March, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong fluctuated between 300 to 400 yuan/ton.

The demand for refrigerants in the air conditioning industry has significantly increased during the peak season, with a tight supply of refrigerants and rising prices. Overall, production has remained stable, providing strong support for the production of dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to the methane chloride data of Business Society, there is currently some support for the cost of dichloromethane, and there is no significant pressure on enterprise inventory. The demand side is supported by downstream peak season demand, and overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate at a high level in April.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market is 7916 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to early March.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that in early March, the overall domestic n-propanol market remained stable and organized. The trading atmosphere in the n-propanol field is mild, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The overall supply and demand side of the n-propanol field has not changed much, and the mentality of the operators is normal. The n-propanol market is operating steadily with limited fluctuations.

In late March, the domestic market for n-propanol experienced slight fluctuations. On the 20th, some n-propanol manufacturers narrowed their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton based on their own inventory and supply situation. Subsequently, the market continued to consolidate and operate. Towards the end of the month, Shandong large factories raised the price of n-propanol narrowly, driving the overall market trend to move up from a low level. As of March 31st, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7150-7600 yuan/ton. The market price of n-propanol in the Nanjing area is around 8500-9000 yuan/ton. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the n-propanol market is mild, and the transmission between the supply and demand of n-propanol is normal. The production of n-propanol is stable, and downstream demand continues to be mainly fresh. The n-propanol data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mostly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and specific information on the supply and demand side needs to be paid attention to.