1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 8th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6630 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average price of 6630 yuan/ton on March 4th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 8th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6633 yuan/ton, which is 6516 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on March 4th. This week, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price increased by 1.79%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of thermal phosphoric acid fluctuated slightly, with a decrease in the price of raw material yellow phosphorus and insufficient cost support. At present, the demand for thermal phosphoric acid in the market is average, and prices are running smoothly. The industry is mainly cautious and watchful. This week, the price of wet process phosphoric acid has increased, leading to an increase in the price of raw material phosphate rock and increased cost support. The demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market has increased, and the export market is improving. Manufacturers and distributors have raised their prices.

As of March 8th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6050-7450 yuan/ton.

The focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has shifted downwards this week. The driving situation of yellow phosphorus in various regions is relatively stable, and the on-site trading situation is average. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, but the transaction situation of new orders is average. Traders have relatively flexible prices, and some manufacturers have low inventory, with price adjustments being the main focus. Downstream, there are many cases of price suppression and procurement, with a focus on observation and cautious procurement. Overall, the upstream and downstream games are organized within the price range. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 23500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, some mining companies in certain regions in China have raised prices in the mid to high end grade phosphate ore market narrowly, driving the overall focus of negotiations in the phosphate ore market upwards. As of March 8th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current performance of the phosphoric acid market is inconsistent, and the market trend is changing with the trend of raw materials. It is expected that the short-term price of thermal phosphoric acid will weaken and consolidate, while the price of wet process phosphoric acid will continue to strengthen. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of raw material market.

The titanium tetrachloride market operated weakly and steadily in February. According to the monitoring system of Shengyishe, on February 29th, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride in Shengyishe was 10625.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.97% compared to the beginning of this month (10950.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost:

After the Spring Festival, the high titanium slag market started operating normally with sufficient inventory, but the high price of raw titanium ore put pressure on the production cost of high titanium slag; In addition, the shutdown of some slag plants has led to weak and stable market operation. In addition, the impact of imported titanium rich materials has led to weak operation of the high titanium slag market. The support for raw material costs is strong, and the high price of high slag is firm.

In terms of downstream demand:

Downstream sponge titanium enterprises and chlorinated titanium dioxide enterprises are operating normally, but some large enterprises produce and use more themselves, with low export volume and weak market demand. They mainly purchase on a daily basis.

Post forecast:

According to a titanium tetrachloride analyst from Business Society, there is high support in the raw material end, high cost pressure, and weak downstream demand. It is expected that the titanium tetrachloride market will operate weakly and steadily in March. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in February 2024, the domestic lead ingot market declined, with an average price of 16110 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15815 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.83%.

On February 28th, the lead commodity index was 96.25, a decrease of 0.24 points from yesterday, a decrease of 28.18% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 28.97% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

On February 28th, the base metal index was 1164 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.31% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile. June August was the peak season of the season, and it continued to decline after September. Judging from the weekly trend, there is more decline than increase.

The entire February lead ingot market was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and the market remained almost stable in the first half of the year, with only narrow fluctuations in prices. After the opening of the market after the holiday, there was a wave of decline, and after the decline, it once again maintained a narrow fluctuation trend. At the beginning of the month, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream basically completed pre holiday stocking, and the market had a strong festive atmosphere. Smelters and downstream battery companies gradually entered the holiday season, with a significant decline in production. The lead ingot market had cold trading, and the holiday atmosphere was relatively strong, resulting in a stable and weak market operation. On the 19th after the holiday, the Shanghai lead market opened. Due to the significant increase in LME lead inventory during the holiday period, the Shanghai lead market fell by more than 1.6%, and the spot market significantly declined. However, due to the fact that most production enterprises have not yet resumed work after the holiday, the holiday atmosphere in the market remains strong. In addition, due to the adverse weather conditions in many parts of China after the holiday, transportation has been greatly affected, and market transactions in various regions are relatively quiet. In terms of demand, battery companies are also in a market of resuming work after the holiday, and overall production is slowly increasing. Overall, the market is still in a post holiday recovery period, and the volatility of the futures market is relatively flat. Recently, the market has been operating weakly with little volatility. Under the weak supply-demand pattern, it is expected that the market will operate steadily in the short term.

Related data:

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in January 2024, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.41 million and 2.439 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 51.2% and 47.9%, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 787000 and 729000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 85.3% and 78.8%..

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in December 2023 was 625000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; The cumulative lead production in China from January to December 2023 was 7.564 million tons, a cumulative increase of 11.2%.

According to data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) on February 21, the global lead market will shift from supply shortages a year ago to overcapacity in 2023. In 2023, the global lead market has an oversupply of 92000 tons. In 2022, there was a shortage of 134000 tons of supply. The main reason for the change is due to the increase in production in China, India, and Australia, with the surplus in December increasing from 18600 tons in November to 24700 tons.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in December 2023, global refined lead production was 1.2174 million tons, consumption was 1.1723 million tons, and there was an oversupply of 45000 tons. The global lead ore production in December 2023 was 394000 tons, and the total refined lead production in 2023 was 14.6622 million tons, with a total consumption of 14.59 million tons. The overall performance in 2023 was an oversupply of 72200 tons. The global lead ore production in 2023 was 4.8711 million tons.

On February 28, the crude benzene commodity index was 112.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 14.46% from the highest point in the cycle of 131.84 points (2013-01-28), and an increase of 269.25% from the lowest point of 30.54 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the crude benzene market remained stable before the holiday in February 2024, but rose and then fell after the holiday. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6601.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 6796.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.95%.

Crude oil prices: During the traditional Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, international crude oil experienced a strong rebound. According to the monitoring of Business Society, from February 8th to 16th, WTI crude oil increased by 7.02% and Brent crude oil increased by 6.21%. The main reason is focused on the issue of geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Business Society crude oil analysts believe that in the short term, crude oil will still be affected by the geopolitical situation, and prices will remain relatively rigid. In the medium term, prices will be under pressure due to the expected delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term under the supply-demand game. There may be room for a pullback in mid-term prices. However, in the long run, there is still room for oil prices to rise despite the expectation of a rebound in future oil demand during the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut cycle. On February 28th, international crude oil futures closed slightly lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $78.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.33 or 0.4%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $82.15 per barrel, a decrease of $0.41 or 0.5%

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has fluctuated, with recent declines followed by gains.

On February 28, 2024, Sinopec lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 150 yuan/ton, and currently implements a price reduction of 8550 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8500 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8303 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8500 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this month and has been continuously rising since the beginning of the month. On February 1st, the price was 7967 yuan/ton; On February 29th, the price was 562 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.46% from the beginning of the month and 20.54% from the same period last year.

In terms of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market in February basically followed the trend of crude oil, rising before the holiday and then falling after the holiday. Sinopec raised and lowered the listed price of pure benzene three times during the month, with the increase concentrated before the holiday and the decrease concentrated after the holiday. The cumulative increase of 250 yuan/ton during the month was basically followed by the main enterprises of hydrogenated benzene, with the highest increase before the holiday reaching 8700 yuan/ton and the lowest decrease after the holiday reaching 8300 yuan/ton. The overall industrial chain remained strong during the month.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After entering 23 years, the hydrogenated benzene market has seen more ups and downs. In May, the market continued to decline for two consecutive months, while in July and August, it continued to rise for two consecutive months. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the hydrogenated benzene market has had relatively small fluctuations since entering October, with mixed ups and downs.

Although crude benzene belongs to coal chemical commodities, the downstream commodity of crude benzene, hydrogenated benzene, as a substitute for pure benzene, follows the fluctuations of the pure benzene market. Therefore, the trend of the crude benzene market is mainly influenced by the pure benzene industry chain. In February 2024, the crude benzene market maintained a stable trend before the holiday, with most companies conducting the final round of auctions around January 30th, with a contract execution period of three weeks. Therefore, the crude benzene market has been mainly focused on executing pre holiday contracts during the holiday period, and a new round of auctions will resume around the 19th after the holiday. During the Spring Festival, crude oil and pure benzene both rose in foreign markets, and the domestic pure benzene market opened with a sharp rise. Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene has been raised for two consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan/ton, boosting market atmosphere and causing a significant increase in crude benzene auction prices. In the later stage, with the pressure on the pure benzene market, hydrogenated benzene and crude benzene will follow the downward trend, and the poor market situation of styrene will affect the market mentality. As a result, the auction price of crude benzene will mainly decline this week, with some differences in the magnitude of the downward trend in various regions, concentrated at 100-450 yuan/ton. Among them, the Shandong region executed a price of 6850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan/ton from the previous auction round.

In terms of supply, the fourth round of increase and decrease in the coke market after the holiday has quickly landed. After the landing, coking enterprises have generally suffered losses, and there have been more companies actively limiting production. The operating rate has fallen below 70%, and the supply of crude benzene has significantly tightened. There has been little change in demand recently, with primary support for essential needs, and the supply and demand side remains positive. In terms of the industrial chain, the styrene market has been consistently weak recently, with high pure benzene inventories in East China. The atmosphere inside the factory has always been weak, and hydrogenated benzene enterprises have a strong mentality of price pressure. Overall, there is a mix of bearish and bullish factors. With support from the supply side, but with a downward pressure on prices downstream, there may be some room for a slight decline in the crude benzene market in the future, and it is expected to operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market was mainly weak this week. As of February 29th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7179.80 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to February 26th.

In terms of supply: Currently, the main factories of maleic anhydride have stable quotations and sufficient supply. The market is highly wait-and-see, and new orders are limited. As of February 29th, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6300 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The hydrogenation benzene market has fallen this week, and news of plant shutdowns in the downstream has been exposed, which is negative for the pure benzene market and the overall market atmosphere is weak. This week, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene dropped to 8300 yuan/ton, and the spot market followed suit.

This week, the international crude oil market has fluctuated upwards, with upstream naphtha market mainly consolidating at high levels, and n-butane market has recently slightly increased. As of February 29th, the price in Shandong is around 5200 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspect: Currently, the unsaturated resin market is gradually starting to operate, with sufficient market supply. The recovery of downstream demand is limited, mainly consuming early inventory, and overall market trading is average.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that the current high price of maleic anhydride raw materials is supported by the cost of maleic anhydride; Limited downstream unsaturated resin trading and limited procurement of maleic anhydride; At present, the prices of the main factories for maleic anhydride remain stable, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly focused on consolidation and observation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week, with an average market price of 782 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, a decrease of 14.63% compared to the same period last year. On February 28th, the chlor alkali index was 1010 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 52.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 41.85% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic caustic soda prices have remained stable this week. The quotation for caustic soda in Shandong region has been consolidated, with 32% of the mainstream market quotation for ion exchange membrane caustic soda being around 730-800 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market price in Jiangsu region is around 820-880 yuan/ton. This week, the overall price of caustic soda has remained stable, and downstream purchases are still more on demand, with average purchasing enthusiasm.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 8th week of 2024 (2.19-2.23), there were 2 products that rose, 3 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: caustic soda (1.00%) and PVC (0.25%); The main commodities falling are: light soda ash (-3.40%), calcium carbide (-0.57%), and baking soda (-0.40%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.45%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has temporarily stabilized this week. Downstream aluminum oxide will purchase according to demand and replenish inventory in an appropriate amount. It is expected that caustic soda may consolidate the operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.