1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3370 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 3303 yuan/ton on January 5th. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate decreased by 0.95%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 4040 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 4003 yuan/ton on January 5th. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.91%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium phosphate has fallen this week. The price of raw material phosphate ore has increased, the price of raw material sulfur has decreased, and the cost side has fluctuated. Overall, there is still support. At present, the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises is declining, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. As of January 5th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is about 3260 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is about 3300 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3920-4100 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3650-3750 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material sulfur, domestic sulfur prices have fallen this week. The end consumer market is coming to an end, downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakening, and most factories are mainly based on demand, resulting in a sluggish market trading atmosphere. Part of the refineries in Shandong region have experienced a load increase, leading to an increase in factory inventory and sufficient supply of goods in the market. At the same time, there is a high expectation of goods arriving at the port this month, resulting in a strong bearish sentiment in the market. As a result, the sulfur prices of refineries have been continuously lowered. As of January 5th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 950-1040 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 900-1130 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market has seen an overall upward trend. After New Year’s Day, the trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild, and downstream demand for procurement and stocking is high. After the holiday, some mining enterprises in certain regions of Sichuan and Guangxi in China will implement new prices for new orders, increasing the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 10-30 yuan/ton. The phosphate ore market in Guizhou and Yunnan regions continues to operate steadily. At present, the supply of phosphate ore in some regions continues to be tight, and the on-site spot circulation is tight. As of January 5th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the trading atmosphere in the ammonium phosphate market has been lukewarm recently, with fewer market inquiries. The winter storage market is poor, and the demand side continues to be sluggish. The overall market is weak and it is difficult to improve in the short term. It is expected that the short-term ammonium phosphate market will be weak and mainly downward.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the prices of heavy rare earths in the domestic market have significantly decreased, while the prices of light rare earths have continued to decline. The rare earth index reached 433 points on the 7th, a decrease of 57.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 59.78% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has significantly declined. As of the 8th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.225 million yuan/ton, and the post holiday price has decreased by 10.28%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.235 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.51% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.775 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 12.60%; The domestic price of terbium series has declined, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.8 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 8.7 million yuan/ton.

In recent times, the price trend of heavy rare earth market has fallen, with limited transactions in the rare earth market, scarce new orders, and low purchasing willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises have recently lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only 30% of them operating. The overall production of the magnetic material industry is around 50%, mainly driven by inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, and the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the trend of the heavy rare earth market has significantly declined. In 2023, the total control indicators of the third batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 15000 tons and 13850 tons respectively. Generally, two batches of indicators will be published every year. In 2023, the third batch of indicators will be published, and the mining output will increase, which will be bad for the domestic rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production of new energy vehicles in November 2023 was 1.074 million units, with sales of 1.026 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.2% and 30%. From January to November 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 8.426 million and 8.34 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34.5% and 36.7%, and a market share of 30.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in November were 4205.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to November was 48867.7 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a sustained decline in the rare earth market.

Market forecast: In the near future, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the situation of new orders is quiet. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 5, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8233 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 8300 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.1-1.5), the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a weak downward trend. Affected by the operation of propylene glycol units in some regions of China, the overall supply side production of propylene glycol has increased. Starting from the beginning of this week, the propylene glycol market has been weakly consolidating and operating, with a weak atmosphere in the market. New orders for propylene glycol have not been well executed, and the supply-demand contradiction has gradually emerged. Over the weekend, some propylene glycol factories and suppliers are under pressure to lower the price of propylene glycol, with a reduction of 100-200 yuan/ton. As of January 5th, the domestic propylene glycol market price reference is around 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is lukewarm, and the mentality of propylene glycol operators is average. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is gradually increasing. The propylene glycol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Price trend

In December, the domestic EVA market experienced a significant decline, with spot prices falling and then trading sideways. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 29th, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.54% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market saw a decline in prices this month. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises continues to rise. The operating rate fluctuated from 80% at the beginning of the month to nearly 90% at the end of the month, and the market supply remained abundant. The maintenance plan for future equipment is insufficient, and the mentality of petrochemical plants is weak. The overall inventory position of EVA is on the rise, and the end of month merchants tend to offer at a discounted price. Recently, EVA suppliers have shown poor support for spot goods. Upstream ethylene levels out, while vinyl acetate tends to be stronger, providing decent cost support for EVA.

The weak demand side performance of EVA this month continues. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials in the early stage have played a role in driving investment, and the purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected. On exchange trading is concentrated on low-end offers, and the logic of buyers buying on dips remains unchanged. Lack of market buying sentiment and resistance to the return of high priced goods. The overall stocking operation on the market places orders as needed, and the acceptance of high priced goods by enterprises is average. Prices are deadlocked due to market pull from different directions.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the decline in EVA prices in December was concentrated in the middle of the month. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has increased at a high level, and downstream demand is weak. The confidence of business owners has weakened, and the profitability of enterprises has significantly declined. As the end of the year approaches, the expectation for increased consumption in the future is relatively low, and the market is unable to change the bearish guidance situation. It is expected that the EVA market will remain stagnant and consolidating in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China fluctuated in December. On December 29th, the average ex factory price of sulfur in the East China region was 1066.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63% compared to the average ex factory price of 1060.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

This month, the sulfur market in East China has been fluctuating, with weak trading in the terminal market. Downstream and trading demand has continued to be weak, resulting in limited sulfur procurement. The fluctuation of sulfur prices is mostly affected by changes in market supply. In the first half of the year, refinery inventories remained low, downstream demand was average, market supply and demand were relatively balanced, and sulfur prices remained stable; In the middle of the month, the Shandong region was affected by the weather, and it was unable to unload goods on time upon arrival at the port. As a result, the market supply of goods has tightened, and the price of sulfur has risen slightly; In the latter half of the year, some refineries in Shandong region experienced a load increase, leading to an increase in factory inventory and a strong intention to discharge inventory. However, due to insufficient downstream follow-up, sulfur prices continued to decline.

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to decline in December, with a market price of 302.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 274.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.27% within the month. Mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers have shown sufficient supply performance within the month, with strong shipping intentions from enterprises and weak downstream demand. They mainly focus on digesting early inventory, limited procurement of sulfuric acid, and insufficient shipments from acid companies, resulting in a weak downward trend in sulfuric acid prices.

The market trend of ammonium phosphate in December has been consolidating and declining, with a weakening of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market, a decrease in downstream procurement inquiries, insufficient follow-up of new orders, increased sales pressure on manufacturers, and weak price reductions. As of December 29th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate is 3370.00 yuan/ton, which is a 3.71% decrease from the average price of 3500.00 yuan/ton on December 1st.

In the future market forecast, sulfur analysts from Business Society believe that sulfur enterprises are operating normally, market supply is stable, terminal procurement is weakening, downstream factories and traders follow up as needed, market trading atmosphere is weak, and there is a lack of effective support on the market. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the sulfur sulfur market will be weak and consolidate in the later stage.