441 # silicon price trend

In the first week after the commencement of construction, the metal silicon phase is now weak. The market has not yet fully recovered, and the spot market activity is low. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 3, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 17970 yuan/ton, down 2.86% from the year before.

The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on March 3 is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Huangpu Port area is 17700-18000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17850 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 17600-17800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 17700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming is 18000-18200 yuan/ton, with an average of 18100 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Sichuan is 17600-17800 yuan/ton, averaging 17700 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 18400-18600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 18500 yuan/ton.

Influential factors of falling price of metal silicon

Supply:

The overall number of silicon metal furnaces this week is basically stable. It is understood that the total number of silicon metal furnaces is 711. As of February 3, the rate of silicon metal furnaces is about 42.76%, 139 in Xinjiang, 28 in Sichuan and 47 in Yunnan. At present, the metal silicon has fallen deeply, the price has reached the cost line, and many manufacturers have postponed the opening plan.

Demand:

The price of polysilicon stopped falling and rose, with the mainstream price of 1916.6667 million yuan/ton, up more than 10%, mainly due to the high price of large head manufacturers and the shutdown of maintenance; The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 19300 yuan/ton. The downstream manufacturers started their work not high, and the purchase demand was not large, and there was no obvious pull on the demand for metal silicon; The market price of organosilicon DMC recovered slightly after the year, with the quotation reference to 16880 yuan/ton, which is mainly based on the delivery of orders before the festival, and the new orders are relatively small, based on the current organosilicon price. The cost side is still under the pressure of loss, and it is expected to operate in a stable manner in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

In general, in the first week after the holiday, the downstream demand has not warmed up, the demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is general, and the silicon price is under pressure. The output of the supply side decreased due to the festival, but the inventory is still mainly accumulated, which also leads to the difficulty of stabilizing the price of the silicon factory under the high cost. It is expected that the short-term metal silicon market will continue to be weak and stable.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic cyclohexanone market was shaken and sorted out. From January 28 to February 6, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China fell from 9760 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.64%. The price rose by 2.78% month-on-month and 19.78% year-on-year. The listing of raw material pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, the raw material pure benzene was weakened by the shock, the shipment of cyclohexanone was blocked at a high price, the price fell, and the transaction was average.

On the cost side, the domestic market price of pure benzene was high and low, and the spot transaction was 6940-7170 yuan/ton; The price of pure benzene in Shandong market was high and low, and the price traded at 6900-7280 yuan/ton. The cost of cyclohexanone has no positive support for the time being.

In terms of supply, the market is relatively abundant at present. The main production enterprises operate normally, but the unit load is maintained at about 60%, and the short-term supply of cyclohexanone is difficult to maintain favorable factors.

On the demand side, the market of caprolactam, the main downstream product of cyclohexanone, continued to rise. The caprolactam market was at a high level. The seller’s quotation was firm, and the downstream part just needed to be purchased. The demand side of cyclohexanone has a small positive support.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the raw material pure benzene is weak, the cost is lack of support, the downstream just needs to purchase, wait-and-see is the main, and the supply of cyclohexanone is stable. The cyclohexanone analyst of the business agency predicted that the domestic cyclohexanone market would operate at a low level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol rose from 9800.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10166.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.74%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 38.93% year-on-year. The neopentyl glycol commodity index on February 5 was 49.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 52.40% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 14.56% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol rose slightly.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 7900.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 4.64%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late February, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support increased, the downstream paint market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by the supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the market price may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

In January, the domestic POM market maintained a strong operation, and the overall performance of prices was stable. According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 1, the average ex-factory price of domestic POM was 14000 yuan/ton, and the price level was+0.48% higher than that at the beginning of January.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province rose slightly in January. From the figure below, it can be seen that formaldehyde has fallen mainly in the past three months, and the price has rebounded this month. By the end of January, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1170-1300 yuan/ton. In January, around the Spring Festival, many formaldehyde manufacturers had holidays in advance, and the formaldehyde shipments were general. The formaldehyde market rose slightly with the upstream methanol.

On the supply side: In January, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises continued to decline at a high level, and the average industrial load was about 87%. The inventory situation of the enterprise is OK, the inventory position is low, and the gross profit per ton of processing profit falls.

Demand: Although the POM industry load has dropped, the market supply is still abundant. The manufacturer’s ex-works price was firm and increased at the end of the month. Under its guidance, the mentality of traders is supported to some extent, but the demand is general, and the on-site shipments are mostly negotiated based on actual orders. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises in stock preparation is general, the release of demand for stock preparation before the holiday is slow, the resumption of work after the holiday is not complete, and the follow-up is slightly delayed.

Aftermarket forecast

In January, the POM market remained stagnant. The load of domestic polymerization plants has been reduced at a high level, and the overall supply is abundant. The ex-factory price of domestic materials is strong, with a slight increase at the end of the month. The pressure on inventory is moderate, while the demand is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest the inventory, and most of the goods are scattered orders. After the current holiday, the momentum in the market still needs to be improved. It is expected that the POM market will continue to run strongly in the short term due to the support of the supply side.