According to the data of the business community, the MTBE price at the beginning of the month was 6810 yuan/ton, and the MTBE market price at the end of the month was 6880 yuan/ton, with a monthly price increase of 1.03%, the maximum amplitude of 8.22%, and a year-on-year increase of 7.40%.

At the beginning of this month, as the early MTBE market price fell to a low level, downstream businesses began to replenish at a low level. At the same time, export negotiations increased, foreign demand increased, and the MTBE market atmosphere became warmer. In addition to the continuous rise of crude oil and gasoline, many enterprises raised the ex factory quotation to 7200 yuan/ton at the weekend.

In the middle of this month, influenced by the rising crude oil market, the MTBE market continued the rising trend of last week, and the ex factory quotation of some enterprises increased by about 150-200 yuan/ton. At the same time, domestic export orders increased, so the market supply was tight, and the price rose.

In the last ten days of this month, the international crude oil price rose and fell frequently, the MTBE market rose slightly, and the overall narrow range fluctuated. The ex factory quotation of some enterprises was adjusted several times, and the rise and fall range was not large, about 50-100 yuan/ton. With the rise of MTBE price to a high level, the cost of downstream gasoline merchants has greatly increased, and they are losing interest in raw material procurement, and the sales of MTBE merchants have declined.

At the end of the month, the crude oil continued to decline, with a strong pessimistic atmosphere in the market. In addition, the export profit was low, and the market export negotiations were light. At the same time, the domestic demand was flat. The sales pressure of merchants gradually emerged, and they had no choice but to follow the decline and adjust.

In terms of external market, as of the closing of November 28, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had decreased by 57.50 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 866.49-868.49 dollars/ton. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by 22.75 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 1035.49-1035.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by 42.85 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf price closed at 911.74-912.09 US dollars/ton (256.83-256.93 US cents/gallon).

Region./Country./Closing price./Up and down

Asia./FOB Singapore./866.49-868.49 USD/ton./-57.50 USD/ton

Europe./FOB ARA./1035.49-1035.99 USD/ton./-22.75 USD/ton

US./FOB Gulf./911.74-912.09 USD/ton./-42.85 USD/ton

Downstream demand is weak, and the sales pressure of merchants reappears. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may still decline in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall low price of domestic sodium metabisulfite in November was weak. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite on November 1 was 2533.33 yuan/ton, and the average price on November 29 was 2433.33 yuan/ton, with an overall drop of 3.95% in the month.

Affected by the continuous decline of upstream raw material cost, domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises lowered the factory price slightly again in November, driving the overall low price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market to operate. In November, the domestic sulfur price picked up slightly. In addition, the overall inventory of the domestic sodium metabisulfite market was relatively low. Although the cost of raw materials was at a low level, the shipment of sodium metabisulfite manufacturers was relatively stable. The old customers just needed to clinch deals, and the overall increase of new orders was limited.

As of November 29, the price of soda ash fell by 0.45% in the month, and the price of sulfur rose significantly by 11.32%. Although the price of sulfur rose by a relatively high margin, there was still a large gap compared with the ultra-high level at the beginning of the year. The cost of upstream raw materials continued to fluctuate at the bottom, and downstream trading entities were cautious in purchasing and selling. The overall price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market in the future recovered and came under pressure.

Future market forecast

According to the analysts of the business community, the prices of some upstream raw materials rose slightly, the overall low price of raw materials fluctuated, the trading entities were cautious in purchasing and selling, the market was long and short, and the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price was in a dilemma in the short term. It was expected that the overall domestic sodium metabisulfite market price in December would fluctuate slightly near 2400.00 yuan/ton.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2772.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 2790.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.65%, 11.42% year-on-year. On December 4, the urea commodity index was 129.77, unchanged from yesterday, 14.81% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and 133.40% higher than the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Increased cost support, general downstream demand, and tight urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China rose this week

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea rose slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell sharply, rising from 4098.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5010.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 22.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.55%; The price of anthracite rose slightly. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) rose from 1630 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1710 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4590.00 yuan/ton last weekend to 4773.33 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 3.99%, 4.22% year-on-year. Upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the price support for urea increased. This week, the price of melamine at the downstream of urea was adjusted at a high level, at 8333.33 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is average, and industrial demand is normal. The operation rate of compound fertilizer plant is high, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. Downstream has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high priced urea, and procurement slows down. From the aspect of supply: environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has been delayed. Some gas enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly up slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the first half of December. According to the urea analyst of the business association, the upstream anthracite of urea. The price of liquefied gas rose slightly, and the urea cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is normal, the export orders are orderly promoted, and the urea supply is tight. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 2, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference was 8800 yuan/ton, compared with November 28 (the butanone reference price was 8866 yuan/ton), the average price decreased by 66 yuan/ton, or 0.75%. As of December 2, the domestic butanone market price is around 8400-9100 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the overall domestic butanone market fell slightly. This week, due to transportation and other factors in Wuhan, the overall adjustment of butanone market price was not significant. The butanone market price in Shandong decreased slightly by about 100 yuan/ton, while the focus of the butanone market in Jiangsu decreased by about 200 yuan/ton. The main factors influencing the decline of butanone market come from the following two aspects:

In terms of cost: the cost support for butanone given by the C4 market downturn after the recent raw material ether is loose. After the cost benefit is weakened, the overall market price of butanone is weak and downward.

In terms of demand, the downstream factory started to operate at a low level, the demand for butanone continued to be cold, the demand support was insufficient, and the overall butanone market was dominated by downward movement.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the support for butanone from both the raw material side and the demand side is relatively loose. The relatively effective support for butanone in the market generally comes from the relatively controllable inventory at the supply side, but there is no demand as an effective support, and the road to a strong market is still difficult. Butanone data experts from the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market tends to be narrow and weak, mainly adjusting the operation, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.