In October, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise as a whole. After the National Day holiday, the Henan market rose strongly, and the factory quotation continued to rise. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4230 yuan/ton on October 7 and 4630 yuan/ton on October 13, with a post holiday increase of 9.46%, up 22.97% compared with August 1.

As of October 13, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4600 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4910 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4490-4630 yuan/ton

With the arrival of the “Silver Decade”, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise, with prices continuing to rise. Most prices in Henan market operated smoothly during the National Day holiday, and the main increase came from the end of the National Day holiday. Since October 8, the domestic dimethyl ether market has risen significantly. The factory price of Henan dimethyl ether has been reported continuously high, and the focus has moved up widely.

First, on the cost side, the raw material methanol market started to surge higher on September 1, bringing obvious benefits to the dimethyl ether market. Until October 9, the methanol market gave up the increase and the price fell, but the early good still remained. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2528 yuan/ton on September 1, 2850 yuan/ton on October 13, and the price rose by 12.74% during the period.

The second is the supply side. In the domestic dimethyl ether market, many sets of devices, such as Hebi BMW and Qinyang Shengxin, are parked. The market supply is low, and most manufacturers have no pressure on inventory.

The last is the demand side. With the end of the National Day Holiday, the logistics will resume after the holiday, and the downstream inventory and replenishment demand will be good. The enthusiasm for entering the market is good, and the market trading atmosphere is relatively mild. The market is obviously favorable. The dimethyl ether market has a strong driving force, and the markets in Hebei and Jiangxi are also significantly higher.

Future market forecast: the raw material methanol market began to decline in a weak way on October 9, bringing some containment on the cost side. On the supply side, the manufacturer’s inventory is still under control, and the mentality is relatively strong. On the demand side, the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is good. To sum up, although the supply and demand are still good, the price of dimethyl ether has risen to a relatively high level, and the raw material methanol is weak. The dimethyl ether market has insufficient momentum for continued growth, which may be stable in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 12, 2022, the reference of the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 9400 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on September 30 (the reference price of butanone was 9900 yuan/ton), the average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton, or 5.05%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the National Day holiday in October, the domestic butanone market overall showed a weak downward trend. Back after the festival, driven by the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, the butanone industry has a good attitude after the festival, and some of them are not willing to give up. However, due to the general demand for butanone before the festival and the sales pressure of some factories and operators after the festival, the market price generally declined in a narrow range after the festival. In addition, the downstream demand is cautious after the festival, and the demand side also restricts the butanone market. Therefore, the overall butanone market is weak after the festival. As of October 12, there was a large difference between high and low prices in domestic butanone market. The market price was around 9000-9800 yuan/ton. Compared with that before the festival, the price decreased by 400-600 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, after the festival, the domestic market of liquefied gas for civil use in Shandong Province showed an overall upward trend. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5604.00 on October 11, up 2.71% compared with October 1 (5456.00).

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand of butanone is average, and the supply and demand transmission is relatively slow. Although the raw material side has given butanone some cost support, it has not improved the current environment in the butanone market, and the overall trading and investment atmosphere in the market is relatively flat. Butanone data experts from the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly adjust its weak range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

DOP price wave adjustment in September

According to the data monitoring of the business community, affected by the off-season, the low DOP price in the third quarter was adjusted by shocks. With the arrival of the golden nine and silver ten, the DOP price should have changed its declining trend and reached a new high. However, the spot transaction remained sluggish, and the rise of DOP was weak. As of September 29, the DOP price was 10080 yuan/ton, up 0.30%% from 10050 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. In September, the DOP price wave was adjusted, and the DOP market rose weakly. As a whole, the DOP price stabilized in September.

The price of isooctanol fell slightly in September

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol dropped in September. As of September 29, the price of isooctanol was 8866.67 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from 9133.33 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol fell, the cost of DOP fell, and the positive support of DOP weakened.

The price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising in September

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising in September. As of September 29, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10300 yuan/ton, up 18.05% from 8725 yuan/ton on September 1 at the beginning of the month. Due to the double impact of the soaring price of raw materials and the increasing maintenance of phthalic anhydride enterprises, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is tight, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly. However, since the late ten days, the price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, the cost of DOP raw materials in the future market has stabilized, and the impetus for DOP to rise has weakened.

Domestic PVC output

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in August 2022, the output of primary morphoplastic decreased by 2.6% year on year; From January to August, the output of primary form plastics totaled 73.78 million tons, up 0.6% year on year; In August, the output of plastic products was 6.441 million tons, down 6.9% year on year. From January to August, the output of plastic products was 5054.7 tons, down 4.9%. The output of PVC products in the downstream declined, the demand for plasticizers declined, the demand for DOP was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOP was large.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply in terms of raw materials. Although the price of isooctanol fell slightly, the overall price stabilized, the cost of DOP rose, and the impetus for DOP to rise increased; However, in late September, the price of phthalic anhydride became stable, the price of isooctanol fell slightly, the cost of DOP became stable, and the upward momentum of DOP weakened. In terms of demand, the output of PVC products declined from January to August, the demand for plasticizers was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOP was great. The central banks of the United States and the seven European and African countries raised interest rates, and a series of radical policies intensified the market’s concern about the global economic outlook. PVC demand in September was lower than expected. The peak season is not strong, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak. In the future, the DOP cost tends to be stable and the demand is weak. It is expected that the DOP price will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business associations, the mixed xylene started to weaken from the first ten days of the month to the middle of the month after rising. The price of mixed xylene was 8090 yuan/ton on September 1 and 8050 yuan/ton on September 28, down 0.49% from the beginning of the month and up 37.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Supported by the peak demand season of “Jinjiu”, the mixed xylene rose at the beginning of the month. Around the Mid Autumn Festival, many places were affected by the epidemic, and the automobile transportation was limited. The gasoline market fell back, but the price of mixed xylene was relatively firm due to the tight supply. The price of mixed xylene began to weaken in the middle of the year, as the decline of crude oil expanded and the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was poor before the National Day holiday.

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

In terms of external market, the price of Asian mixed xylene in external market fell this month. On September 28, South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $972.5 per ton, a month on month drop of US $20 per ton, or 2.02%.

In terms of the PX market, the domestic PX price rose steadily in the middle of the month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8800 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9000 yuan/ton. The price was 2.27% higher than the beginning of the month, and 26.76% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, the price of OX in East China rose widely this month, at the beginning of the month at 8300 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month at 9000 yuan/ton, 8.43% higher than the beginning of the month, and 38.46% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province weakened this month, and the price fell in shock. The price at the beginning of the month was 9454 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8720 yuan/ton, 7.77% lower than the beginning of the month, and 12.2% higher than the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Due to the tight supply, the price of mixed xylene was relatively firm throughout September. However, the demand for downstream chemical products continues to be weak, and the demand for gasoline blending is expected to gradually decline in October. In the future, the pressure of mixed xylene demand is highlighted, and the price is likely to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this month was 10550 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the end of this month was 10466 yuan/ton, down 0.79%, down 4.85% compared with the same period of the year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, PS (polystyrene) trading is cold, and the enthusiasm of merchants to offer is obviously weakened. Quotation reference of mainstream brands: Dushanzi 500, 10100-10200 yuan/ton; CITIC 525 is out of stock, Saibaolong 525 is reported as 10000 yuan/ton for factory delivery, Liwan 525 is reported as 9950-10000 yuan/ton for bulk cargo, Shanghai SECCO 123P is reported as 10400-10500 yuan/ton, Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 is reported as 11500 yuan/ton, and Yangba 158K is reported as 11500-11700 yuan/ton for lack of cargo; Huajin 825 reported 10700-10750 yuan/ton; Ningbo Taihua 535N quoted 11400 yuan/ton. The above prices are tax inclusive and are subject to firm negotiation.

At present, styrene is weak and volatile, petrochemical manufacturers maintain stability, and market trading slows down near the National Day holiday. Businesses are not enthusiastic about trading, so they mainly wait and see. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will fluctuate in a narrow range. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market will be 9800-11500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) will be 10400-11700 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

At present, PS downstream trading and investment are slowing down, and the market lacks support from good news. It is expected that the short-term domestic PS (polystyrene) market will rise or fall in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic isopropyl alcohol market price rose this month. On September 1, the average price of isopropyl alcohol was 6420 yuan/ton, and on September 30, the average price was 7430 yuan/ton. The price was raised within the month by 15.73%.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: Comparison of acetone and isopropanol prices from April to June

The domestic isopropanol market price rose this month. At present, the domestic isopropanol market is fair. The price of upstream raw material acetone rose, isopropanol followed closely, and the price rose. Up to now, most of the isopropanol market quotations in Shandong are around 70000-7400 yuan/ton; Most quotations in Jiangsu isopropanol market are about 7500-7650 yuan/ton. Most factories suspend external quotation. Internationally, on September 27, the closing price of American isopropyl alcohol fell, while the European isopropyl alcohol market was mixed.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone rose this month. The average price of acetone was 4710 yuan/ton on September 1, and 5580 yuan/ton on September 30. The price rose by 18.74% in the month. The prices of major mainstream markets were firm this month, the National Day was approaching, and most downstream markets had replenished. The on-site spot supply is still tight, and the terminal just needs to purchase.

In terms of raw propylene, the propylene market price rose this month. On September 1, the average price of propylene was 7100.6 yuan/ton, and on September 30, the average price was 7620.6 yuan/ton. During the month, the price rose by 7.32%. Downstream inquiry was active, and the enthusiasm for buying goods increased. Supply is still loose. Fortunately, downstream demand continues to improve, supporting propylene prices. In terms of demand, the profitability of downstream products has increased, the operating rate has been raised, and the procurement has been increased to benefit the propylene market.

3、 Future market forecast

Isopropyl alcohol analysts from Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that the prices of domestic raw materials acetone and propylene have risen this month. Domestic isopropyl alcohol market has strong cost support, good market confidence and a good trading atmosphere. It is expected that the isopropanol market will be strong and upward in the short term. Pay attention to the subsequent raw material market trend.

The factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell sharply this month, from 9133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8933.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.19%. A year-on-year drop of 25.56%.

On September 30, the isooctanol commodity index was 65.69, up 0.49 points from yesterday, down 52.23% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and up 86.88% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong rose first and then fell this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is increased, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose slightly this month. The price of propylene rose from 7100.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7620.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.32%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 5.83% year on year. The cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol. Downstream DOP prices fell first and then rose. The DOP price rose from 10050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10120.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.70%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.22%. Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream customers became more active in purchasing isooctanol. On the whole, upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of isooctanol this month.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of October, the domestic isooctanol market rose slightly, mainly finishing. The upstream propylene price rose slightly, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market rose slightly, and there was still an upward trend at the end of the month. The downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for isooctanol increased, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isooctanol analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects in the short term.