In February, the domestic styrene butadiene market rose first and then fell. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of February 28, the price of butylbenzene 1502 was 12400 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.93% compared with 12516 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 12766 yuan / ton.

In February, the domestic supply of styrene butadiene rubber was loose and the demand was relatively weak. The ex factory price of styrene butadiene manufacturers fell, and the merchant’s offer fell. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of February 28, the ex factory price of Jihua / Fushun 1502 of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 12200 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the SBR unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was temporarily shut down in late February. The overall operation of domestic SBR enterprises was basically normal, and the supply side decreased slightly, but the overall supply was loose.

In February, the raw material butadiene rose sharply, styrene rose slightly, and the cost was supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 28, the price of butadiene was 8372 yuan / ton, up 30.09% from 6436 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of February 28, the price of styrene was 8980 yuan / ton, up 0.79% from 8910 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In February, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. As of February 28, the price was 13114 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from 13260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 13880 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is loose, the cost side support is strong, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber will undergo shock consolidation in the later stage.

In February 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market fluctuated upward. The average price of the domestic market was 15245 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15460 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.41%.

On February 28, the lead commodity index was 94.09, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 29.79% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.08% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of lead has maintained a strong shock in recent one month.

In February, the trend of lead ingot Market fluctuated widely, and the behavior was dominant on the whole. During the Spring Festival, Lun lead in the futures market pulled back. After the Spring Festival, Lun lead continued to decline and fell to a new low in the year. Later, with the opening of the Chinese market and the decline of LME Lun lead inventory, the market was boosted and the price hit the bottom and rebounded. In terms of Shanghai lead, Shanghai lead fell sharply on the first day of the market opening after the festival. Later, with the boost of fundamentals, Shanghai lead rebounded, and the spot market basically followed the trend of Shanghai lead. From a fundamental point of view, lead enterprises will gradually resume production after the festival. With the end of the holiday, the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises will gradually increase. As the market approaches the traditional off-season in March, the overall market mentality is weak, and the output of battery enterprises is expected to decline. At present, the price advantage of recycled lead is obvious, and some demand turns to the recycled lead market, which once again affects the mentality of the primary lead market. At present, the social inventory is still high, dragging down the market mentality.

In the future, the business society believes that under the current situation of many negative factors, the rise of lead price is weak. Later, as the downstream gradually enters the off-season, the lead price may have room to decline.

Relevant data:

WBMs: according to the latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday, there was a supply shortage of 130900 tons in the global lead market from January to December 2021, compared with 108700 tons in 2020. From January to December 2021, the global refined lead output was 14.374 million tons, an increase of 21.7% over the same period in 2020. China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 7.2888 million tons, 2.291 million tons higher than the same period in 2020, accounting for about 50% of the global total. In December 2021, the output of refined lead was 1331100 tons and the demand was 1345400 tons.

On February 28, 2022, London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory decreased by 25 tons from 44325 tons

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9125 yuan / ton on February 24. The domestic high-temperature coal tar market as a whole is still in the situation of supply exceeding demand, and the price fluctuates at a high level, so the cost performance is strongly supported, and the carbon black production enterprises are in a loss situation.

In terms of cost, the price of coal tar is high The domestic high-temperature coal tar market demand weakened, and the new single auction price fluctuated. The domestic high-temperature coal tar market declined in a narrow range, and the overall weakness was consolidated.

Downstream, the production capacity of the tire market was further restored this week, and the operating rate of the sample manufacturers of semi steel tires and all steel tires increased significantly. After the festival, the tire factories started to increase rapidly in order to supplement the early orders. In addition, some small-scale enterprises are also in the stage of starting to recover gradually, which has led to a significant increase in the starting rate of the sample tire enterprises as a whole. but

In terms of construction, recently, the operation rate of domestic carbon black industry was 54.07%, down 1.11% from last week and 22.28% from the same period last year. Due to the high price of coal tar and the lower procurement strength of relevant rubber products enterprises, the operation of carbon black production enterprises was relatively low.

Analysts of business society expect that it will operate stably in the near future. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the supply of coal tar, and the price will operate stably in the short term. In the medium and long term, the probability of rise will increase.