According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell slightly on February 10. The average market price in East China was 5670 yuan / ton, down 0.08% from the previous trading day and up 40.62% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5690, down 24, or 0.42%.

Recent changes of PTA units in China

manufacturing enterprise Unit capacity (10000 t / a) Device change

Yisheng Ningbo two hundred Maintenance for 2 weeks on February 10.

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty The load will be reduced to 50% from February 9 to the end of February, and it is estimated to remain until the end of February.

Zhongtai petrochemical one hundred and twenty About 80% of the construction was started in early February.

Yisheng Dalian two hundred and twenty-five The overhaul is planned in early March, and the specific situation is to be determined.

In terms of supply, the 3.3 million ton PTA plant of Yisheng new material is planned to reduce the load to 50% on February 9 and is expected to remain until the end of February. Yisheng Ningbo 2 million ton PTA plant is scheduled to start maintenance for two weeks on February 10. About 80% of the 1.2 million ton PTA plant of Zhongtai Petrochemical was started in early February. The 2.25 million ton PTA plant in Yisheng Dalian is planned to be overhauled in early March, and the specific situation is to be determined. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry has dropped to around 82%.

In terms of crude oil, data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude oil inventories decreased by nearly 5 million barrels last week, adding to the record demand for refined oil, which boosted oil prices. On February 9, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $89.66/barrel, up US $0.30 or 0.34%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $91.55/barrel, up US $0.77 or 0.85%.

Downstream end enterprises gradually resumed work after the festival, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rebounded to more than 13%. In addition, the cooling and snowfall weather occurred in some areas, which affected the purchase and sales of enterprises to a certain extent. The purchase of raw materials was mainly cautious. Today, the quotation of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was temporarily stable.

Business analysts believe that the high volatility of crude oil still supports PTA in terms of cost, the slow recovery of downstream demand, the reduction of PTA’s own supply pressure and more good news on the overall fundamentals. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will be subject to strong volatility and adjustment.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 365600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 390000 yuan / ton

Analysis: after the Spring Festival holiday, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise steadily. At present, the market is in the state of resumption of production and work. Around the middle of February, domestic lithium carbonate maintenance enterprises will gradually resume normal production, and the supply will increase. After the festival, cathode material enterprises reduced production slightly, but the demand for lithium carbonate is still at a high level.

Forecast: with the downstream market gradually entering the production track after the festival, the demand for lithium carbonate will continue to increase, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this month. The quotation first rose from 9733.33 yuan / ton on January 1 to 17166.67 yuan / ton on January 11, up 7433.34 yuan / ton, up 76.37%, then fell to 13300.00 yuan / ton on January 25, down 22.52%, and finally rose to 15400.00 yuan / ton on January 31, up 15.79%. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market rose first, then fell and then rose this month, with an increase of 58.22% for the whole month.

 
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose first and then fell this month. The manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. The quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month was 15500 yuan / ton, an increase of 6300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 14500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde offered 16200 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell this month, with a slight rise on the whole. The quotation first rose from 7548.60 yuan / ton on January 1 to 8212.60 yuan / ton on January 20, an increase of 8.80%, and then fell to 7750.80 yuan / ton on January 31, a decrease of 5.62%, a year-on-year increase of 9.66% compared with the same period last year. The cost support is good, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde. The market price of downstream neopentyl glycol rose sharply, and the quotation increased from about 13333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 16647.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 3314 yuan / ton, or 24.86%. The downstream market rose sharply, and the downstream purchase enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde increased. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde this month.

Market outlook rose slightly

The domestic isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly in the middle and early days of February. The price of propylene in the upstream has been adjusted at a high level recently, the cost support has been strengthened, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has risen sharply, the enthusiasm of isobutyraldehyde in the downstream has been strengthened, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly.

In 2021, the supply of hips market exceeded the demand, and the price fluctuated downward. During the year, the trend was roughly up-down-up-down, in the shape of W. According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of hips at the beginning of the year was 12693.33 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the year was 11266.67 yuan / ton. The lowest price of the whole year was in September and the highest price was in May, with a decrease of 11.24% during the year.

2、 Market analysis

The hips market rose first and then fell in the first half of the year. During the Spring Festival, the US gold price of styrene soared, and the spot price rose rapidly after the festival. PS petrochemical manufacturers increased sharply, which boosted traders to actively pursue the rise. In addition, some PS devices such as Jiangsu saibaolong and CITIC Guoan stopped and reduced production, the on-site supply was slightly tightened, and the superposition of favorable factors boosted the rise of hips prices. In May, under the guidance of macro policies, the prices of nearly 100 kinds of raw materials collectively “dived”, and the market gradually returned to rationality. All plasticized products fell to varying degrees. Moreover, after the strong rise of hips in the early stage, the demand side followed up in general, the hips price decreased and the market focus moved down. In June, the shock of raw styrene weakened, the supporting force of cost declined, superimposed the impact of power rationing in some regions, and the trading in some regions was affected, and the hips price continued to decline.

In the second half of the year, the demand growth was slow, the boost was insufficient, and the hips was high and down. In July, the price of raw styrene fluctuated and weakened, the cost support was general, coupled with the general demand in the off-season, the shipment of hips was poor, and the offer of cargo holders was loose. At the same time, the early maintenance device was closed, the supply increased, and the hips price fell under the interweaving of bad and bad. August is still the off-season of demand. Under the drag of demand, even if the raw materials rebound, the hips market is still dominated by steady decline. In September, the raw material styrene fluctuated sharply in the month, with an increase of about 4% in the month. The cost side supported the slight rise of hips price. After returning from the National Day holiday in October, the hiips market continued to rise. In addition, the market supply was slightly tightened, and the cargo holders took advantage of the trend to increase their offer. Since the middle of the year, due to the macro policy, the market sentiment has been depressed and the superposition of power and production restrictions in some regions, the downstream continued to need replenishment, the cost side and demand side were weak, and the hips market was dominated by bad conditions. In October, the price of raw styrene fell by nearly 20%, the cost was reduced, the demand was poor, the sales pressure of cargo holders was large, and the market supply was increasingly abundant, Negative sentiment dominated the market, and hips prices fell frequently. In December, the cost side was average. The market price of hips continued to decline for good. At the end of the year, the positive shipping psychology of cargo holders was obvious. In addition, the market supply was increasingly abundant, and hips fell by about 4% in the month.

According to the monthly growth and decline from April 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021, it can be seen that the ups and downs are mixed in the hips cycle, but they are obviously up less and down more. They rise only in April, may, September and October. The month with a larger increase is may, with an increase of 4.18% for the whole month, and the largest decrease is November, with a decrease of 6.49%.

In terms of raw materials, the price of styrene generally showed a trend of “rise shock fall” in 2021. The decrease of imports promoted the rise, and the cost support was strong in the early stage and then weakened. As 2022 approaches, it is expected that the effective production capacity of styrene will increase by 27% in 2022, and the industrial chain will also usher in centralized production. The production capacity growth of upstream and downstream core links may reach a high level. Looking ahead, the supply of styrene and its downstream products will be relaxed. In 2022, based on the expected requirements of the state for the stability maintenance of the real estate industry, the growth rate of terminal demand such as household appliances slowed down, and there was a risk of slowdown in foreign demand after superimposing the gradual consumption of subsidies for the U.S. epidemic. Next year’s styrene price will be balanced by crude oil cost guidance, import volume, port inventory and downstream enthusiasm for taking goods.

3、 Future forecast

The business society believes that in 2021, the supply of hips market is relatively abundant, the demand side also has the trend of steady improvement, and the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent. Therefore, the price fluctuation during the year is not violent, and the overall shock is mainly downward. With the acceleration of PS’s new production, it is expected that the total production capacity of PS industry may reach 7.96 million tons by the end of 2023. Hips may have a certain downward expectation. It is also necessary to pay attention to macro news, device dynamics and raw material price trend.