According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend mainly fell in early December, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of December 3, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8080.00 yuan / ton, up or down – 3.12% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material propylene, enterprises mainly complete orders from old customers, lack new orders, it is difficult to form strong support for downstream demand, and there are no obvious positive factors in the market. The price of upstream raw materials has declined as a whole, and the price has been falling under the constraints of cost and demand..

In the upstream, the price of direct raw material propylene fell. In the recent energy, the market of power coal and crude oil weakened, and the cost support of PP collapsed. In addition, PP supply remained stable, on-site maintenance production lines decreased, and the current operating rate increased narrowly, which was close to 90% as a whole. The operating rate of the industry and its downstream is still average, the purchase follow-up of end users is not timely, the business operation tends to reduce the order, and some enterprises consider reducing the burden and reducing the pressure.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of December 3, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP fell. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8266.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 3.69% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and a decrease of – 6.24% year-on-year. At the end of last month, the demand for PP fiber was stable, the consumption of main downstream non-woven fabrics and their end products was ok, and the main bad news in the field came from the falling price of upstream propylene.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market is weak. As of December 3, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community is about 9683.33 yuan / ton, an increase or decrease of 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the field is sufficient, and dilution has a pulling effect on the spot market of meltblown cloth. In addition, due to the collapse of the cost end, the meltblown materials of individual models have a large decline.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market continued to decline in early December, propylene, coal and crude oil weakened at the same time on the cost side, and the upstream support for PP was greatly reduced. Spot prices are falling, and the demand of terminal enterprises is not enough to follow up. It is expected that the PP market may still fall in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of December 2, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 9200 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on November 28 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 10100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 900 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.91%.

This week, the domestic n-propanol market continued to decline, and the focus of on-site transactions continued to run downward. As of December 2, the decline in the week was 8.91%. At the beginning of the week, affected by the weak demand side, some n-propanol suppliers in Shandong began to reduce the ex factory price of n-propanol. On the 29th, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 9100-9300 yuan / ton, which was about 100 yuan / ton lower than the previous working day. After the price was reduced slightly, the downstream demand did not increase significantly. In the middle of the week, the market trend of n-propanol in Shandong continued to explore, On the 1st, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 8800-9000 yuan / ton, and the price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton. After the continuous decline of the price, the bearish mood in the market increased. On the 2nd, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing also fell sharply. The ex factory price of n-propanol in Nanjing was 9000-10000 yuan / ton, with the largest decline of 2000 yuan / ton this week. At present, as of December 2, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol was 9200 yuan / ton, down 8.91% during the week. The downstream demand is still calm, the overall market trading atmosphere is general, and the wait-and-see mood is heavy.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend this week. On December 1, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $658-675 / T, down US $45 / T. recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general. On December 1, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1221-1232 / T, down US $4 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1154-1163 / T, up US $1 / T. On December 1, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1096-1106 / T, down US $20 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1041-1051 / T.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the price of the domestic n-propanol market has fallen to a low level after continuous decline this week. Therefore, the analysts of the business society think that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the market continues to fall sharply, with limited space. More attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, mixed xylene rose slightly this month and fluctuated lower. On November 1, the price of mixed xylene was 6790 yuan / ton; On November 30, the price was 5910 yuan / ton, the lowest price in this month was 5910 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month was 6830 yuan / ton, down 12.7% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 920 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the month, the crude oil price was at a high level, the bottom of mixed xylene was well supported, and the price rose slightly due to the low inventory of mixed xylene. With the opening of the decline channel of crude oil, the price fluctuates frequently and the cost support weakens; The arrival of goods at the port increases and the market mentality turns empty; Downstream demand was weak, and mixed xylene fell continuously. In the latter half of the year, boosted by the rise in the price of toluene, the price rebounded slightly in the short term, but the overall market news was short, which was difficult to maintain. After the sharp decline of crude oil, the price fell.

In terms of crude oil, at the beginning of the month, the crude oil market maintained a tight supply pattern, OPEC + maintained the original production increase plan, and the oil price fluctuated strongly. The US passed a $1 trillion infrastructure investment bill, which also boosted oil prices. In the middle of the month, it was reported that the United States may release strategic oil reserves, superimposing the deterioration of the epidemic in Europe, and the trend of crude oil was frustrated. With the continuous growth of U.S. crude oil inventory, the decline of crude oil expanded. At the end of June, South Africa and other countries found a new variant virus, and the oil price fell sharply, with a single day decline of more than 10%. As of November 29, Brent fell $10.94 / barrel, or 12.97%; WTI fell $13.62/barrel, or 16.3%.

In terms of external trading, the price of mixed xylene in Asia fell broadly this month. As of November 29, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 750.5 US dollars / ton, down 62 US dollars / ton or 7.63% compared with October 29; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $775.5/t, down US $62.5/t or 7.46% month on month on October 29.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX price continued to be stable this month, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7300 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 69.77% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of PTA market, PTA prices in East China fluctuated and fell this month. The price was 5124 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 4622 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 9.8% from the beginning of the month and up 39.16% from the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, ox in East China rose slightly this month and fell three times. The price was 7260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6600 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 9.09% from the beginning of the month and up 20% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong showed a downward trend as a whole this month. The price fell broadly at the beginning of the month, rose violently after the middle of the month, and fell again at the end of the month. The price was 8474.8 yuan / ton on November 1 and 7937.2 yuan / ton on November 29, down 6.34% from the beginning of the month and up 49.4% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, but the market believes that this slump is excessive, and bargain hunting by traders increased. The market is still evaluating the impact of the Omicron variant on the economy and crude oil demand. And the market is waiting for the OPEC + meeting, and the production reduction of major oil producing countries is expected to rise. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Crude oil fell sharply at the end of the month, related bulk commodities generally weakened, and gasoline and diesel prices fell. There are differences in downstream demand, but the overall weakness makes it difficult for xylene to support the price. On the whole, the focus of short-term impact on the trend of mixed xylene has shifted to cost crude oil, and the price is deadlocked. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market trend at the raw material end, plant dynamics of enterprises at the supply end, port inventory and downstream purchase at the demand end on the price of mixed xylene.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8920.00 yuan / ton on November 1 and 9090.00 yuan / ton on November 30, with an increase of 1.91% during the month and 9.52% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 11937.50 yuan / ton on November 1 and 12387.50 yuan / ton on November 30, with a rise of 3.77% in the month and 0.10% compared with the same period last year.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8866.67 yuan / ton on November 1 and 8900.00 yuan / ton on November 30, with an increase of 0.38% in the month and 2.30% compared with the same period last year.

In November, the overall trend of the domestic polyethylene spot market was strong, and the three varieties increased in varying degrees. Among them, LDPE increased the most significantly, with an increase rate of nearly 4% in the month, followed by LLDPE, which increased step by step in the month, and HDPE showed a trend of falling first and then rising, with little overall fluctuation. In the first half of the month, the polyethylene market trend was strong, LDPE and LLDPE continued to rise, HDPE prices were relatively strong, petrochemical enterprises successively raised the ex factory prices, and even the plastic futures fluctuated higher, which brought some benefits to the spot market. Moreover, the greenhouse film was in the peak production season, the demand was good, and the price was mainly supported. In the second half of the month, the polyethylene market price was adjusted in a narrow range, and the overall fluctuation range was limited. The ex factory prices of petrochemical enterprises were mostly stable, and the merchant mentality was general. In addition, the peak season of shed film demand was coming to an end, and the downstream was mainly active in shipping, which brought some restraint to the rising market, and the market decreased slightly near the end of the month.

In November, Liansu futures were first high and then low, which brought phased benefits to the spot market. On November 30, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2201 was 8636, the highest price was 8649, the lowest price was 8434, the closing price was 8435, the former settlement price was 8598, the settlement price was 8569, down 163, down 1.90%, the trading volume was 489911, the position was 220394, and the daily position was increased by – 2860. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the supply of polyethylene in the domestic market has increased significantly, but the peak season of greenhouse film demand is coming to an end. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection policies, the demand growth is relatively limited, which brings some bad news to the market. Downstream factories maintain on-demand procurement, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market has weakened, and the mentality of merchants is weak. In addition, Liansu futures market has fallen significantly, which has limited support to the spot market and lacks obvious benefits. It is expected that the PE spot market will be weak and downward in December.