According to the data of business agency, as of November 14, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5320.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 6.99% from 5720.00 yuan / ton on November 8.

On November 14, the fuel oil commodity index was 107.75, the same as yesterday, down 13.35% from the highest point 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 133.83% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The downward price of domestic marine oil raw materials has limited support for fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of November 14, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5350 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 5450 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5200 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices rose and fell this week. On the whole, prices rose slightly. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve tightened its expectations on monetary policy and reduced the scale of bond purchase. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported yesterday that the US crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week, dragging down oil prices. However, OPEC + maintains a cautious plan to increase production. In the short term, the situation of short supply in the crude oil market may be difficult to improve. Supported by this, oil prices rose this week.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, which supported fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of November 10, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 570000 barrels to a three-week low of 21.749 million barrels; As of the week of November 10, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory decreased by 515000 barrels to 9.853 million barrels, the lowest in more than two years; As of the week of November 10, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell by 460000 barrels to 9.139 million barrels, the lowest in more than three years.

Future forecast: the price of raw materials is down, the cost support of ship fuel market is limited, the market price of ship fuel continues to decline, the overall trading is light, the inventory of some enterprises is under pressure, the terminal destocking is mainly, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5100-5400 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5200-5500 yuan / ton, A single discussion. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by weakness in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China in November 8 was 1656 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate on November 12 was 1790 yuan / ton. This week, the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 8.05%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium sulfate Market warmed up, and the market in various regions of China rose sharply. Export orders increased and downstream active procurement changed the declining market last week. At present, the enterprise has no inventory pressure and the on-site trading atmosphere is good. This week, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1750-1950 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 1800-1950 yuan / ton, and that in Shanxi is 1700-1900 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market was flat and the price fluctuated slightly this week. The price of urea, the raw material of compound fertilizer, fell, the price of monoammonium phosphate fell, and the market of potassium fertilizer was strong. At present, the wait-and-see attitude of the compound fertilizer market is obvious, and it will operate weakly and stably in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts of business society believe that the current export market is good, the downstream actively receives goods, and the support of export orders is good. Affected by environmental protection, production restriction and double control, it is difficult to increase the supply of ammonium sulfate. It is expected that there is limited room for the price rise of ammonium sulfate, and it is mainly high and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market bottomed out and rebounded in early November, and the spot price recovered. As of November 11, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4133.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 3.33% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

At present, the domestic potassium sulfate Market is low and stable, and the supply of low-cost goods has decreased. Recently, the spot of domestic potash fertilizer market has maintained a slightly tight pattern, but the market change is limited. The upstream potassium chloride operated smoothly, and the spot price of potassium sulfate remained stable. There is no large-scale purchase by end users, and the shipping resistance of traders is still. This week, the operating rate of processing potassium sulfate enterprises decreased slightly, and the overall load remained stable at about 55%. The mentality of the industry is general, and the low price spot offer of potassium sulfate on the floor tries to increase in a narrow range. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4300 yuan / ton. The factory reference price of Shijiazhuang Haofang 50% potassium sulfate powder is quoted as 4200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the low price of domestic potassium sulfate rose in early November, and the market of potassium chloride was stable. At present, the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is relatively stable, but the demand of downstream users is generally followed up, and the consumption of social inventory is limited. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to stabilize in the near future.

Trade name: acrylic acid

Latest price (November 10): 17700 yuan / ton

Recently, the acrylic acid market is weak, flat compared with the previous trading day, and down 5.52% compared with the price on November 1. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has increased slightly, the cost side support is general, the supply side is sufficient, the demand side performance is poor, the operators’ willingness to receive goods is general, the inquiry and procurement maintain rigid demand, and the market is weak.

It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be dominated by weakness in the short term.

Product Name: n-propanol

Latest price (November 9): 11000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on November 9, the domestic n-propanol market was running upward, and the average ex factory price of n-propanol was 11000 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 9th, the supply of n-propanol in the domestic market was tight, the factory inventory was low, the quotation of the operator was stable, the downstream was mostly purchased on demand, and the transaction was just needed.

Future forecast: at present, the domestic n-propanol plant in Shandong has not been put into operation, and the supply pressure of n-propanol in the short term is not available, supporting the high and strong quotation of the industry. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the near future, the domestic n-propanol market mainly focuses on the high consolidation and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

This week, the lead market (10.29-11.5) fluctuated downward. The average price of the domestic market was 15618.75 yuan / ton last weekend and 15475 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.92% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, lead prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks.

This week, Lun lead’s market was dominated by weak shocks, and the mainstream range was between 2330-2410 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar fluctuated upward, the base metals were generally under pressure, and most of the shocks went downward. Lun lead was affected by weak overall, and fell for three consecutive weeks. Shanghai lead fluctuated as a whole. Affected by the black market, the trend in the week was weak.

The spot market mainly follows the trend of Shanghai lead, mainly with weak shocks, and the lead inventory is still high. During the week, some original lead manufacturers in the South resumed production. The impact of power restriction policy on the overall market is gradually weak, and the downstream demand gradually picks up. However, at present, the social inventory is high and the output brought by the resumption of production is large. Although supported by downstream demand, it still mainly consumes the current inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 44th week (11.1-11.5) of 2021, there are 13 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 7 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were praseodymium neodymium oxide (9.41%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (9.30%) and metal neodymium (8.38%). A total of 9 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.6% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 22.21%), aluminum (- 7.78%) and zinc (- 5.18%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.67%, and the nonferrous metal market rose more or fell less this week.

The demand brought by the annual task of storage enterprises basically offset the output growth brought by re production manufacturers. There are many negative factors in recent fundamentals, and it is expected that the lead price will be stable and weak.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market bottomed out and rebounded in early November, and the spot price rose slightly. As of November 4, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4066.67 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

At present, the weakness of the domestic potassium sulfate Market has eased. Although the improvement of market momentum is still limited, the supply of low-cost goods has decreased. In addition, there is a slight shortage of spot in the domestic potassium fertilizer market, the upstream potassium chloride operates smoothly, and the spot price support of potassium sulfate is still stable. There is no large-scale purchase by end users, and the shipping resistance of traders is still. At the beginning of this month, the operating rate of processing potassium sulfate enterprises decreased steadily, and the overall load remained below 60%. The mentality of the industry is general, and the low price spot offer of potassium sulfate on the floor tries to increase in a narrow range. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4100 yuan / ton. The factory reference price of Shijiazhuang Haofang 50% potassium sulfate powder is quoted as 4200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business agency believe that the low price of domestic potassium sulfate rose in early November, and the market of potassium chloride was stable. At present, the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is relatively stable, the demand of downstream users is generally followed up, and the market mentality is still wait-and-see. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may continue to stabilize in the near future.

Trade name: potassium chloride

Latest price (November 3): 2890.00 yuan / ton

On November 3, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on November 1. The high-end price of 62% white potassium in the port has been about 4000 yuan / ton, the price of 62% white potassium in border trade has mostly reached about 3600-3650 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 57% powder in Qinghai small factory is about 2700 yuan / ton.

Recently, the price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly, and the quotation is about 2900 yuan / ton.

In October, the domestic styrene butadiene market rose and fell. According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of emulsion polybutylene 1502 was 12291 yuan / ton at the beginning of February, then rose to the highest point of 14683 yuan / ton in the month, and fell back to 14000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 13.90% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In the middle and early ten days of October, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber market rose sharply in the early stage, and the ex factory price increased frequently. Within the month, the increase range was around 2200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 31, the ex factory price of Jihua / Fushun 1502 of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 14300 yuan / ton; Market traders’ offers followed suit. In the middle and late October, with the rising price of butylbenzene, the downstream resisted the high price of butylbenzene, purchased more on demand, the transaction was slightly deadlocked, and the market price fell slightly at the end of the month.

List of styrene butadiene rubber commencement in October.

In October, the raw material butadiene rose sharply, the price of styrene rose slightly, and the cost side was slightly supported. According to the monitoring of business society, as of October 31, the price of butadiene was 7991 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 14.02% compared with 7008 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest increase in the middle of the month was 20.36%; The price of styrene was 9520 yuan / ton, up 2.59% from 9190 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with the highest increase of 9.58% in the middle of the month.

The natural rubber market rose and fell in October, with slight support. At the beginning of the month, the price was 13184 yuan / ton, rose to 14263 yuan / ton within the month, and fell back to 13723 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it increased by 4.09% compared with the beginning of the month, with the highest increase of 8.94% in the month.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that although the rise of international crude oil prices in October led to a sharp rise in the domestic petrochemical market, the rising momentum of raw materials butadiene and styrene is weak, coupled with the rise and fall of natural rubber prices, it is difficult for the supply and demand side to support the high price of styrene butadiene. It is expected that styrene butadiene rubber may continue to fall in the later stage to find support.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refiners in October was 3358.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3234.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 123.83 yuan / ton during the month and a monthly decrease of 3.69%.

On October 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 251.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.04% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 276.12% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: in October, the local refined petroleum coke fluctuated downward. Recently, the local refineries have had good trading, and the refineries have actively shipped to inventory. The inventory of individual refineries is high, and the price of local refined petroleum coke is down slightly.

Upstream: international crude oil prices continued to rise in October. On the one hand, the current situation of global energy supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short term, especially natural gas. The European energy crisis is becoming more and more serious, and the EU natural gas inventory has reached the lowest level in recent ten years. Affected by the resonance of energy tension, crude oil inventories continue to decline. At present, OECD oil inventories have reached the lowest level since 2015. Moreover, recently, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies have no new production increase plan, the market supply expectation is still tight, and the crude oil price has risen to the highest level in seven years. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. In addition, with the approach of winter in the northern hemisphere and the increase of heating demand, crude oil prices are supported.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke has been basically stable in the near future; Metal silicon market has declined; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of October 31, the price was 20210.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there were 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in October 2021, including 10 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 62.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (29.09%), fuel oil (22.54%) and diesel (15.00%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were power coal (- 11.99%), methanol (- 7.27%) and petroleum coke (- 3.69%). The average increase and decrease this month was 6.93%.

3、 Future forecast

The petroleum coke analyst of business society predicts that the price of petroleum coke in refineries has dropped recently, refineries actively ship to inventory, the trading is good, and the inventory of individual refineries is high. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell, and the price of calcined coke remained basically stable. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may continue to decline in November.