1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on April 13 was 5216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.64% compared with the previous day, flat on a month on month basis, and up 4.33% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Driven by the rising price of raw material yellow phosphorus, the phosphoric acid market rose slightly by 0.64%. The price of enterprises was adjusted by 100-150 yuan / ton, and the center of gravity moved up. Some enterprises stayed on the sidelines. Last week, the price of yellow phosphorus dropped, phosphoric acid fluctuated obviously with yellow phosphorus, and some phosphoric acid enterprises’ quotations were callback. This week, yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded, rising by 1.18%. Supported by cost, the low-end price of phosphoric acid was gradually increased. At present, the downstream demand is relatively stable. We continue to maintain the rigid demand for purchasing. We have strong wait-and-see sentiment and general inquiry. However, affected by the cost, the phosphoric acid market is stable and strong. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of April 13, the quotation in Sichuan was 4850-5550 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was 5200-5400 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5200-5400 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was 5900 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 5300-5900 yuan / ton. The prices in various regions rose steadily.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 4850-5550

Hubei Province: 85% industrial grade – 5200-5400

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade – 5200-5400

Henan Province: 85% industrial grade – 5300-5900

In Beijing and Tianjin, the content of ﹣ 4 ﹣ is 85% industrial grade ﹣ 4800-5900 on April 13

In terms of raw materials, after the Qingming Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market rose in an all-round way. On April 13, the reference price of phosphate rock was 470.00, up 5.22% compared with April 1 (446.67). In April, although the rising trend of the downstream terminal slowed down, and in recent days, it mainly maintained stable operation, but the export benefits can still be supported in the short term. Therefore, the downstream terminal market mostly maintained a high level in the short term. Therefore, the phosphorus ore market, supported by the downstream, has also been mainly in a strong operation in recent days.

The price of yellow phosphorus decreased last week. The price of coke market declines, and the support for yellow phosphorus is weak. The downstream market is mainly wait-and-see, and the goods are taken carefully. On April 13, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 17100.00, which was 1.18% higher than that on April 1 (16900.00). On April 13, the plant of Sichuan Mabian Longtai phosphorus Power Co., Ltd. started normal operation. The enterprise started three electric furnaces with a daily output of more than 50 tons. The latest price of high-grade yellow phosphorus was 17500 yuan / ton. Guizhou Qingli tianmeng Chemical Co., Ltd. started normal operation. The latest price of high-grade yellow phosphorus is 17100 yuan / ton, and the price of yellow phosphorus rises slightly.

At present, the raw material cost of monoammonium phosphate is high, and the downstream demand is limited. Now diammonium phosphate is mainly exported, domestic spring ploughing is coming to an end, and the supply and demand are in balance. It is expected that monoammonium phosphate will keep stable operation in the short term, while diammonium phosphate may be adjusted in a narrow range.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of Shangshe chemical branch, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is rising, and the supporting force is gradually increasing. The phosphoric acid market is cautious and wait-and-see, and more stable rises. At present, the downstream demand is relatively flat. Affected by the cost, it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will rise steadily in the short term.

In April, the civil LPG market continued to rise, and the price kept rising. It can be seen from the trend chart that the upward range at the beginning of the month is not obvious, and the main behavior is stable. After the Qingming Festival holiday, Shandong civil gas market began to push up continuously, with a large range. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4000.00 yuan / ton on April 1 and 4267.00 yuan / ton on April 12, with an increase of 6.7% during the period, up 14.67% compared with March 1.

As of April 12, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specification ﹣ mode of transportation ﹣ region ﹣ mainstream quotation

Civil gas and automobile transportation in North China 4250-4350 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in eastern China: 4150-4300 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in South China: 4310-4420 yuan / ton

Civil gas and automobile transportation in Shandong Province: 4200-4350 yuan / ton

At the beginning of April, the civil LPG market continued the rebound at the end of March and continued to rise slightly. Due to the favorable factors of the Qingming Festival holiday, the downstream market mainly entered the market to replenish goods before the festival, the manufacturers made good deliveries, and the market transaction atmosphere was mild. At the end of March, the market began to stop falling and rebound. Later, with the end of the holiday, the market price did not stop rising, but continued to be the main actor, and the rising range after the holiday was more obvious. Related products propane strong upward to bring good market is one of them. After the festival, the downstream concentrated replenishment, entering the market is relatively stable, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the inventory is basically free of pressure. Then there is the supply side. In April, the civil gas market entered the stage of centralized maintenance. Refineries have been overhauled one after another. With the decrease of market supply, the market has also been boosted to a certain extent. Finally, there is the international crude oil market. In April, the international crude oil fluctuated frequently and with a large range, but the overall rise also brought some support to the civil gas. Under multiple positive factors, the market price of Shandong civil gas has been rising one after another.

Looking at the futures market, the LPG futures market mainly fluctuated during the period, which brought Limited benefits to the spot market. On April 12, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2105 was 3818, the highest price was 3921, the lowest price was 3760, the closing price was 3899, the former settlement price was 3807, the settlement price was 3845, up 92, or 2.42%, the trading volume was 75594, the position was 18703, and the daily increase was – 305. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In the future, the current market price of civil gas has risen to a relatively high level. Taking Shandong market as an example, the mainstream market price has risen to about 4200-4350 yuan / ton. With the rising price, the downstream resistance has increased, and most of them withdraw from the market and wait-and-see, and the market transaction atmosphere has become weaker than that in the early stage. In terms of international crude oil, the trend is mainly volatile, which brings limited benefits to the market. Another negative factor is that with the gradual rise of weather temperature, market demand is expected to weaken. However, most of the manufacturers’ inventories are at a controllable level. It is expected that the price of Shandong civil gas market will be strong in the short term, and there is little room for further increase in the long term.

Trade name: chloroform

Latest price (April 12): 3883 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on the 12th, the domestic price of chloroform was 3883 yuan / ton, up 2.19% from the previous day. On the one hand, there is a large demand for downstream refrigerants, and the shipment of chloroform is smooth, which is supported by the demand side; on the other hand, since late March, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has gone up, and the cost side support is strong. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of April 12, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was around 2300 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream demand is increasing, and the price of raw materials is rising. Although the overhaul of Jinling plant is completed, the overall supply side is slightly increased compared with the previous period, the chloroform industry chain is generally good, and the price is expected to continue to rise in the later period.

This week (4.6-9), the price of ethyl acetate in the domestic market rose strongly, and the ex factory price rose continuously after the festival. According to the monitoring of the business society, the production price of ethyl acetate in East China was 9400-9600 yuan / ton, up 8.13% this week, mainly due to the rising price of acetic acid in the upstream market and the favorable supply and demand.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, acetic acid also rose sharply after the festival. According to the monitoring of the business society, acetic acid in East China rose by 8.7%, and the prices in North China, South China and other regions rose to varying degrees, mainly due to the fact that the units in Nanjing, Tianjin and Henan are still under repair, the operating rate is low, the supply side is good, the manufacturers’ inventory continues to go down, the manufacturers’ prices have a strong rise range, and the market linkage effect is obvious Obviously.

In addition to the cost advantage, the tight supply of ethyl acetate and the moderate growth of demand are the main factors driving the market. Affected by the overhaul of large plants and the decrease of supply, the inventory of manufacturers decreased, and the reluctance to sell increased. This week’s closure of jinyimeng intensified the shortage of goods in the market. In addition to the maintenance of enterprises, the terminal performed well, especially the downstream purchasing before Qingming Festival reduced a large part of the inventory pressure, and the smooth sales after the festival accelerated the de inventory of ethyl acetate. The cost, supply and demand of ethyl acetate increased significantly.

In the future, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believe that the short-term ethyl acetate is still affected by the supply shortage, and the price is still strong. However, the current price is at an unprecedented high, especially at the weekend, the pace of enterprise price adjustment has slowed down, and some enterprise prices have stabilized. It is expected that the price will maintain a high level or continue to rise slightly next week.

1、 Formic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of formic acid product)

2、 Market analysis

In March, formic acid market fluctuated and went up. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 31, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2866.67 yuan / ton, up 10.26% compared with March 1, up 8.18% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and up 21.99% compared with the same period last year.

In early March, formic acid market was stable and rose, and the orders and shipment of enterprises were acceptable. In the middle of this year, due to the price reduction of upstream raw materials, the support for formic acid cost was weakened, and the market price fell. In the last ten days, affected by the device failure of a manufacturer, the market supply was tight, and the market price rose.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of formic acid of enterprises at the end of March was summarized as follows: the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3200 yuan / ton; the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Shandong tamasuk Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3100 yuan / ton; the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3000 yuan / ton; and the quotation of industrial grade 85% formic acid of Hongmao Materials Co., Ltd. of Liaocheng transportation group was 3100 yuan / ton The quoted price is 3000 yuan / ton, and the quoted price of 85% formic acid of Jintan local industrial supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan / ton. The spot price of the merchants follows the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation.

For upstream caustic soda, the overall price of caustic soda in March was dominant. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 457.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was about 490 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 7.1%. For upstream liquid ammonia, the supply of liquid ammonia was tight in March, and the price increase was relatively strong in the second half of the month. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly price increase of liquid ammonia was 17.16%; for upstream sulfuric acid, the price of sulfuric acid in March showed an upward trend, with a price increase of 10.6%; for upstream methanol On March 31, the reference price of methanol was 2377.50, up 3.59% compared with March 1 (2295.00).

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid analysts of business news agency, in terms of recent supply, the formic acid market is rising due to the device failure of a factory. In April, the price of raw materials is mainly stable, and the downstream leather, pesticide and other industries mainly purchase formic acid on demand. With the recovery of the device, the formic acid market may be weak, so more attention should be paid to the price trend of raw materials and market information guidance.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club block list, the domestic PA66 market continued to be active in March, and the spot prices of various brands continued to rise. As of April 1, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 42900 yuan / ton, with an increase of 17.53% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and 96.34% compared with the same period last year. The price position has broken through the historical high.

Cause analysis

The supply contraction pattern of PA66 upstream products continued, and the capacity loss of crude oil and chemical enterprises affected by the cold disaster in the United States recovered slowly. Domestic import volume of adiponitrile and hexanediamine continued to be low, and quotation of relevant international large manufacturers remained high. At present, the supply of goods in the market is tight, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in the pattern. The upper spot price is mainly high.

The upstream price position was high, and the domestic PA66 price continued to rise in March. The range of spot offer is about 44000 yuan / ton to 44500 yuan / ton, and the quotation has broken through the historical high. The shortage of raw materials has caused polymerization enterprises not to get enough raw materials for production. At present, there is a general shortage of raw materials in domestic PA66 polymerization plants, and the overall operating rate of the industry has dropped to about half. Pingdingshan Shenma, Huafeng Group and other PA66 domestic manufacturers continue the strategy of no quotation to the outside world, and have no pressure on inventory, mainly supplying contract customers. The inventory in the hands of dealers further declined, and the operation was biased towards high report and reluctant to sell. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the shortage of non major customer factories may be even worse.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency said: in March, the domestic PA66 market continued to rise due to the continuous shortage of upstream supply, and the spot price rose again. In the short term, the supply improvement signal of upstream products is insufficient, and the cost pressure of PA66 is further increased. The market performance in the past week is mainly high and stable. It is expected that PA66 market will remain high in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In March 2021, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose. In March, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong fell from 2183.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2070.00 yuan / ton on March 15, down 5.19%, and then rose to 2170.00 yuan / ton on March 31, up 4.83%. On the whole, the urea market in Shandong fell slightly in March, with a year-on-year increase of 26.41% at the end of the month, and the urea commodity index was 100.93 on March 31.

2、 Market analysis

（1） Upstream:

It can be seen from the above figure that the upstream market of urea rose as a whole in March: the ex factory price of liquid ammonia rose in March. The quoted price rose from 3360.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3936.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 576.67 yuan / ton, or 17.16%, up 22.38% compared with last year. In March, the ex factory price of liquefied natural gas fluctuated and rose. The quoted price rose from 2836.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3690.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up by 853.33 yuan / ton, or 30.08%. Compared with last year, it rose by 12.50% year on year. The price of upstream raw materials rose, and the cost of urea was well supported. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of urea.

（2） Downstream:

As can be seen from the above figure, the downstream market of urea rose and fell in March: the ex factory price of melamine rose in March. The quoted price rose from 7566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8716.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 1150.00 yuan / ton, or 15.20%, up 62.42% year on year compared with the same period last year. The price of wheat market fluctuated and fell in March. The quoted price decreased from 2552.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2536.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 0.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.49%. In March, the price of corn market fluctuated and fell. The quoted price dropped from 2887.14 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2831.43 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.93%, up 51.88% compared with the same period last year.

Demand side: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants start load is acceptable, and the procurement of high price goods is cautious, with strong market wait-and-see atmosphere. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient.

Futures: on March 13, India announced the first round of urea bidding in 2021, with the bid opening date of March 22 and the closing date of March 31. At that time, China was generally optimistic about this round of bidding, so on the first trading day after the announcement of the Indian bid, the futures contract 05 opened high, with an increase of 3.31%. After the bid opening on the evening of March 22, India revealed that it expected to bid about 1.3 million tons. Then the futures contract 05 started to rise continuously on March 23, and finally returned to the high of 2000 one month later on March 26. However, after the bid closing on March 31, the total transaction volume determined by the Indian side was only 802500 tons, including 265000 tons on the east coast and 537500 tons on the west coast, which was far from the previous 1.3 million tons, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. Therefore, on March 31, the urea futures contract 05 continued to decline after it opened significantly lower, and finally closed at 1947 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.09% on that day. India’s bid did not meet expectations, some export hopes failed, the disk reaction was more pessimistic, and the domestic port inventory was high, some port sources may return.

（3） Products:

In March, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong first fell and then rose.

3、 Future forecast

Urea prices are expected to fall slightly in early April. In terms of demand: agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; downstream compound fertilizer and plastic plate plants have fair starting load, and they are cautious in purchasing high price goods, with strong market wait-and-see atmosphere and no bright spot in demand for the time being. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons, gradually increasing. The start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient. Domestic urea supply and demand is still weak.

The domestic cocoon and silk market has been fluctuating upward for nearly 11 months, and it still maintains a rising trend in March 2021. At present, the average price of dry cocoon market is 127000 yuan / ton, and the average price of raw silk market is 396500 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 12% in a single month, and an increase of more than 50% compared with the beginning of May 2020

March 31, 2021 – March 1, 2021 – up and down – May 1, 2020 – up and down

Dry cocoon: 127000 112500 12.89% 80050 58.65%

Raw silk 396500 349000 13.61% 260000 52.50%

On spring cocoon market, Huazhou, Guangdong and other regions, after sporadic listing last week, ushered in batch listing on the 29th, with the purchase price of about 52-54 yuan per kilogram. The first batch of spring silkworms in Yizhou of Guangxi entered the fourth instar, and a small number entered the fifth instar.

With the cocoons coming into the market in Xuwen, Yunfu, Yangchun and other places in Guangdong Province, some silk reeling enterprises have begun to sample the first batch of fresh cocoons this year. Recently, new cocoons were loaded into the market, and the price is about 10000 yuan / ton (depending on the grade). The loading price of fresh pupae from factories in Guangxi and Guangdong: class a 10000-11000 yuan / ton, class B 9000-10000 yuan / ton, class C 8000-9000 yuan / ton. The loading price of Guangxi dry and wet pupae factory: 5400 yuan / ton for Grade A, 4800 yuan / ton for Grade B and 4000 yuan / ton for grade C. The selling price in Shandong is about 13000 yuan for Grade A, 12000 yuan for Grade B, 9000-11500 yuan for Grade C fresh pupae and 4500-5000 yuan for Grade C dry and wet pupae.

In foreign markets, due to the holiday in Thailand, the delivery time was delayed until April 18, with sufficient supply. The order price is basically: class a 2100-2200 US dollars, class B 2000-2100 US dollars. South Korea’s sales price is around 1350 US dollars, Vietnam’s 16000 Dong / kg, and South Korea’s dry and wet pupae are 1300 US dollars / ton.

In terms of exports, according to customs statistics, 370.832 tons of fresh pupae were exported in January this year, with the value of 798332 US dollars. 628 tons of dry and wet pupae, worth 588120 US dollars. In February, 104.5 tons of fresh pupae were exported, with a value of US $234700. The export of dry and wet pupae is 327.826 tons, with the value of 519359 US dollars.

Business analysts believe that the current downstream procurement is generally cautious, especially the transaction of high-quality raw silk is less, the purchase quantity is controlled, and the sales inventory is the main, which limits the space for the current spring cocoon purchase price to rise again. In the case that the terminal demand and the supply situation of the new cocoon season are not clear, the price increase of cocoon silk will narrow down.