1、 Price trend

 

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Take sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide, which has a large volume in the domestic market, as an example. According to the data of the business club’s large list, the price of titanium dioxide rose this week. At the end of last week, the average price of titanium dioxide in China was 16000 yuan / ton, while that of this week was 16666.67 yuan / ton. The price rose by 4.17% during the week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

From December 1, 2020, a new wave of price rise will be set off again in the titanium dioxide market. According to incomplete statistics, 17 mainstream titanium dioxide manufacturers have issued price increase notices, including longmang Bailian, Pangang, haifengxin, Shandong daoen, Guangxi Shunfeng, Panzhihua Tianlun, Jinan Yuxing, Shandong Dongjia, Ningbo Xinfu, chaocai environmental protection, Yumen Jingyang, guangxitian, Kunming Donghao, CITIC titanium industry, Panzhihua titanium sea technology, Panzhihua titanium capital and Yunnan Dadu Hutong. The price adjustment range of titanium dioxide enterprises is 700-1000 yuan.

 

This week, the market price of titanium dioxide rose. Based on the current good export market situation, the manufacturers and distributors in the supply side are still in a tight spot, and the price of raw titanium concentrate is boosting. Up to now, the domestic ex factory price of rutile titanium dioxide is 16300-17000 yuan / ton, and that of anatase titanium dioxide is 13500-14500 yuan / ton.

 

In October 2020, China’s titanium dioxide output was 322900 tons, an increase of 20700 tons compared with September, a month on month increase of 6.85%, and a year-on-year increase of 17.57%. From January to October, the total output of titanium dioxide was about 2.8392 million tons, an increase of 9.57% over the previous year, an increase of 248000 tons.

 

According to customs data, in October 2020, China’s titanium dioxide export was about 110200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.84%, and a month on month decrease of 1.43%. From January to October, the cumulative export was about 1.005 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 21.88%. In October 2020, China’s titanium dioxide import was about 16600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.88%, and a month on month increase of 13.90%. From January to October, the total import was about 139800 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.08%.

 

In terms of raw materials, this week Panxi area titanium concentrate price high consolidation. Downstream buyers are under great pressure and mainly wait-and-see, and the actual transaction situation is general. Up to now, the prices of 46,10 titanium ore and 1320-1350 yuan / ton for 46,10 titanium ore, 2050 yuan / ton for 47,20 ore and 1320-1350 yuan / ton for 38,42 ore, respectively. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate will continue to be strong, with a single discussion.

 

According to customs data, China imported 285900 tons of titanium ore in October, up 5.73% year-on-year and 41.02% month on month. From January to October, the total import was about 2.4608 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 18.76%. In October, China exported 567 tons of titanium ore, down 77.64% year-on-year and 75.79% month on month. From January to October, the total export volume was about 19048 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.67%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Titanium dioxide analysts believe that: at present, titanium dioxide enterprises export orders perform well, domestic spot is still tight. The price of raw material titanium ore is high, and the cost support is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the titanium dioxide market will mainly operate at a high level, and the actual transaction will be a single discussion.

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Commodity index: on November 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.23, unchanged with yesterday, 17.64% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 6.44% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

 

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Price quotation: according to the monitoring data, in September 2020, the manufacturer’s production was normal, and the quotation fluctuation was very small. Although in the “golden nine”, the demand did not appear much exuberant in that month, and the transaction atmosphere was relatively peaceful. Only in the two days at the end of the month, the price increased by about 400 yuan / ton, only about 2.82%; in October, the trend was still stable, and only on the 14th, the mainstream price was about 60 yuan/ Tons of small increase, and the price of 15 immediately callback, “silver 10″ overall rise is not obvious. However, in November, the domestic price of polyacrylamide is facing upward pressure. Although the domestic mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (PAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million) is only increased from 14300 yuan / ton to about 14400 yuan / ton, the overall range is not large. However, in fact, due to the constraints of acrylonitrile procurement cost, the ex factory price of many polyacrylamide is increased by 500 yuan / ton At the same time, in the heating season, the environmental protection inspection is strict, the manufacturers stop production, the price of acrylonitrile is increased greatly, and the price of polyacrylamide rises sharply. In fact, the supply of goods determines whether the price rises, while the downstream demand plays a general role.

 

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Industrial chain: upstream: acrylonitrile rose sharply this month. According to the business agency, at the end of October, the mainstream quotation of domestic acrylonitrile was 9300 yuan / ton. This month, the price of acrylonitrile was raised repeatedly, with a single increase of 400-500 yuan / ton, and the monthly increase of 2000-3000 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream is about 12250 yuan / ton, and this week the increase is as high as 1950 yuan / ton. Situation of acrylonitrile unit in this month: Sinopec’s settlement price of acrylonitrile products sold in November was 9900 yuan / ton in North China and 9850 yuan / ton in East China; Zhejiang Petrochemical Company had a maintenance plan in December for its 260000 ton acrylonitrile unit, and the specific situation needs to be further determined; after the 130000 ton acrylonitrile unit of Shandong Haijiang Chemical Co., Ltd. was shut down in early August, there was a restart plan in December; Sinopec’s 240000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, postponed the restart until November 25, and the plant was shut down for maintenance on October 20. Downstream: in the current winter, the number of downstream water treatment project construction enterprises is reduced, and the demand for raw materials is weak.

 

Industry: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly. Although the prosperity of the industry increased in October, the price changes of different water treatment products were quite different. The ex factory price of polyaluminum chloride increased by 7% in September and October due to the rising prices of raw materials and fuels. Although the price of polyacrylamide raw materials also increased, the market price of polyaluminum chloride did not rise as much as that of polyaluminum chloride. In November, faced with the big influence factors of heating season this year, polyacrylamide manufacturers stopped production more, and recently faced a sharp rise in acrylonitrile, the downstream demand was weak, the upstream cost was high, the pressure of polyacrylamide manufacturers was large, and the price rise was inevitable.

 

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, the current domestic economic momentum is good, the price of acrylonitrile, the raw material in the upstream, has risen sharply this month, and the pressure on the cost side has increased sharply; however, due to the seasonal impact on its demand, the demand in winter is not good, and the downstream support for the price rise is insufficient. However, the price of polyacrylamide will rise after the end of December due to the high demand of manufacturers and the price of polyacrylamide will rise after the end of December.

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According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic polyester filament market price showed a downward trend in November, among which polyester POY dropped the most significantly, with a decline of 5.45% in the month, followed by polyester FDY and polyester DTY, with a decline of 4.15% and 3.26% respectively. At present, the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are reporting 5050-5250 yuan / ton of polyester POY (150D / 48F), 5160-5450 yuan / ton of polyester FDY (150D / 96F) and 6800-7000 yuan / ton of polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity). In terms of production and marketing, the market of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was weak at the end of the month, and the average production and sales of mainstream large factories were 50% – 70%. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of polyester market is now concentrated in 23-36 days, of which POY inventory is 7-13 days, FDY inventory is around 16-34 days, and DTY inventory is about 24-36 days.

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Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in November, unit: yuan / ton

 

Year on year rise and fall of products from November 1, 2020 to November 30, 2020

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 7145 6912 – 3.26% – 20.33%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5424 5128 – 5.45% – 27.20%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5623 5390 – 4.15% – 25.21%

PTA raw materials fell first and then rose, PTA surplus at the beginning of the month led the market, prices remained downward. As of November 30, the average market price was 3321 yuan / ton, up 1.09% from the beginning of the month, and decreased by 31.03% year-on-year. At the end of the month, with the 3.75 million tons of yishenghua, 1 million tons of PTA invested by Sichuan energy and 0.7 million tons of Yadong petrochemical, the starting load of PTA was increased to more than 92%, and the accumulation of accumulation was expected to be strong, and the performance of flushing was weak.

 

In the early stage, under the hype of “double 11 stock season”, the whole industry chain from clothing to fabric to weaving has entered the market peak, and the market has ushered in a wave of explosive growth. In addition, under the cold winter expectation, with the increasing demand for the lining materials of down jacket and cotton padded jacket, the factory once again cleared a batch of inventory, which relieved the production pressure. However, with the decline of the upsurge, the characteristics of traditional off-season are becoming more and more obvious. There is a trend of accumulated inventory and reduced operation. At present, terminal customers place orders cautiously, and the starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is also reduced from 93% in early November to about 85%.

 

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that the current textile industry is in the traditional off-season, the overall market is relatively depressed, and the enterprise funds are relatively tight, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high, and the demand side is still facing greater pressure. In addition, the raw material market continued to rise in the lack of momentum, PTA began to accelerate the accumulation of inventory, new capacity is also planned to be launched next month, increasing the pressure of excess supply. Therefore, in general, the price of polyester filament is more likely to fluctuate downward.

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