1、 Price trend

In April, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price on April 1 was 5127 yuan / ton, and on April 8, the domestic butadiene market price was 3867 yuan / ton, down 24.57%, 38.18% month on month, down 51.11% year on year. At present, the market price of butadiene has reached a new low in nearly 10 years.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market fell broadly, Sinopec’s supply price was reduced by 500 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton, and the base price of Huajin bidding was reduced to 3510 yuan / ton, but the transaction was still not smooth. Affected by low price ocean going cargo and abundant domestic spot supply, the market continued to be bearish. The market center of gravity is expected to continue to decline due to the short expectation and supply side price reduction. For sporadic offers in Shandong, the reference price is 3700-3800 yuan / ton. The price in East China market is kept at 3600-3800 yuan / ton, and some offers are 3800-4000 yuan / ton.

In terms of enterprises, the 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu srbang was restarted on March 30. At present, the unit is in normal operation, and the quotation is reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton; the 70000 T / a unit of Inner Mongolia Jiutai is restarted, and the goods are sold normally, and the quotation is reduced by 500 yuan / ton to 3400 yuan / ton. Dalian Hengli 140000t / a device operates stably, the goods are sold normally, and the quotation drops by 300 yuan / ton to 3510 yuan / ton.

In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the supply price of domestic mainstream styrene butadiene is stable, and the market price is higher. The main offer price of Shandong Qilu 1502 is 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and that of oil rubber 1712 is 7000 yuan / ton. Shanghai Rubber rose, the news to cheer up the mentality of the industry; the raw material butadiene supply price fell, the styrene butadiene production enterprise theoretical profit enlarged again. Boosted by the rise of crude oil and Shanghai Jiaotong, the upside down price in the market disappears. The industry generally adds 100-300 yuan / ton to make an offer to watch the trading market; the inquiry atmosphere is acceptable, most of which are replenishment by middlemen, while the terminal remains on the watch, and the principle of “use as you go” remains unchanged.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has not been adjusted, and the market offer range has been boosted. With the improvement of inquiry, the price of the offer has been gradually increased, while the price of the low offer has been reduced. Only a few private enterprises have delivered goods at a price lower than that of the petrochemical factory. The overall offer atmosphere has improved. The middlemen are active in the market, and the downstream factories just need to replenish their positions.

3、 Future forecast

The supply of overseas ocean going cargo is abundant, and the supply and demand of domestic butadiene spot continue to be weak. With the prices of Sinopec and other suppliers continue to decline, the overall market continues to decline. The short-term peripheral information is difficult to transmit to the butadiene spot market, and there is no obvious positive support from market supply and demand. The butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak, and it is suggested to pay attention to the guidance of the internal and external trading news.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on March 31 was 5333.33 yuan / ton, down 0.62% from the beginning of the month, up 13.93% compared with the same period last year. On April 2, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 115.48, down 1.1 points from yesterday, down 10.45% from 128.96 (2019-07-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.69% from 91.15, the lowest point on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) / P >

2、 Market analysis

Product: the phosphoric acid Market weakened in March and the price decreased. At the beginning of the month, the phosphoric acid Market in all regions (except some regions) was basically back to work, and the market recovered its vitality. In the middle of the month, the phosphoric acid market began to decline, and the price began to decline in a step-by-step manner. The focus of transactions in all regions was shifted down, and the price was cut for shipment. At the same time, due to the impact of foreign public health affairs, the export situation was not good. At present, enterprises are more cautious and wait-and-see, and more go with the market. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of April 3, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5283.33 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan was about 4700-5300 yuan / ton, that of Hubei was about 5000-5300 yuan / ton, that of Yunnan was about 5200 yuan / ton, that of Beijing was about 5400 yuan / ton, that of Tianjin was about 6000 yuan / ton, and that of all regions was different Tune.

Industry chain: yellow phosphorus prices fell this month. The start-up of yellow phosphorus enterprises has increased slightly, and there are many enterprises planned to resume production in the near future. The local market of yellow phosphorus is average, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is not high, the wait-and-see mood is obvious, and the mentality of traders is unstable. By the end of the month, the mainstream price in Yunnan is about 16200-16300 yuan / ton. The main price in Sichuan is about 16800-17000 yuan / ton. The main price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 16200 yuan / ton. This month, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market started to recover basically at the beginning. The phosphorus ore market in Guizhou recovered relatively quickly, and the operating rate in Yunnan is still not high. Up to now, the domestic phosphorus ore market is still stable after a small shock in March.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 3 kinds of rising commodities, 2 kinds of falling commodities and 0 kinds of rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry in March 2020. The main commodities that rose were monoammonium phosphate (4.52%), diammonium phosphate (1.14%), phosphate rock (0.83%); the main commodities that fell were yellow phosphorus (- 6.78%), phosphoric acid (- 0.62%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.18%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the market of phosphoric acid is weak at present, and all regions are basically back to normal. The high-end price in the market is generally lowered, the focus of market transaction is shifted down, and the support effect of raw material end is weakened. It is expected that there is still room for further exploration in the phosphoric acid Market in the short term.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

(Figure: P value curve of acrylic acid product)

2、 Market analysis:

Products: according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises on March 1 was 7166.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of acrylic acid enterprises on March 31 was 6433.33 yuan / ton, with the market down 10.23% in the month. In a three-month cycle, it fell 20.9% year-on-year. At the beginning of the month, the price of raw material propylene rose, the cost support was strengthened, the industry was still at a low level, and the downstream demand gradually increased, and the price of acrylic acid rose steadily. In the middle of the month, the price of raw material propylene fell, the cost support for acrylic acid also weakened, the downstream demand recovered in an orderly manner, the market trading was orderly, and the mainstream price of acrylic acid market remained stable under the support of supply and demand. Near the end of the month, under the influence of the overall market environment, the purchasing mentality of downstream customers is slightly weak, the real order transaction is just needed, the mentality of the operators is poor, and the price of acrylic acid is greatly reduced. On December 31, the mainstream price of acrylic acid Market in China was about 6400-6500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: according to the data in the large scale list of business agencies, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) in March experienced a rapid decline trend after two small rises, at the beginning of the month, it was 6350 yuan / ton; at the end of the month, it was also the monthly low price, at 5378 yuan / ton, the monthly decline was 15.31%; the monthly high price, from March 6 to March 9, was 6663 yuan / ton, the monthly amplitude was 19.29%. On the 31st, the market turnover was 5300-5800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 5300 yuan / ton. At the beginning of April, there are more propylene manufacturers or will start construction, which has a great negative impact on propylene.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in March 2020, there are 24 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 7 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase are isopropanol (55.64%), methylic acid (20.51%) and ammonium chloride (20.48%). There are 59 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 46 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 52.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 49.82%), crude benzene (- 36.94%) and toluene (- 33.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 8.47%.

3、 Future forecast:

Analysts of acrylic acid business club believe that in the near future, the price of raw propylene has fallen, the cost side support is weak, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the market mentality is more cautious. It is expected that in the short term, acrylic acid market will be dominated by weak consolidation, and the market trend needs to pay more attention to the price of raw materials and the transaction status of the mainstream market.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of business agencies, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium was 2133 yuan / ton on March 23, 2100 yuan / ton on March 30, and the price dropped 1.56%. On March 30, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 69.73, down 0.56 points from yesterday, down 30.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 12.30% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on March 23 was 2225 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on March 30 was 2225 yuan / ton. The price remained stable. On March 30, DAP commodity index was 66.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.55% from 102.98 (2011-10-08), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.14% from 65.62, the lowest point on March 4, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Monoammonium: at present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and that of 60% mainstream powdered ammonium is 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1900-2100 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: at present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province is quoted at 2250-2500 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Northwest China is quoted at 2200-2400 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of raw phosphate rock is stable this week, and the market is running smoothly. At present, the reference price of phosphate rock is 406.67 yuan / ton. This week’s sulfur price remained stable at a high level and the market’s rise was suspended. At present, the reference price of sulfur is 653.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that due to the large supply and reduced demand, the price of ammonium phosphate began to fall after the market rose in the early stage. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have sufficient stock and weak demand. It is expected that the gravity of Monoammonium will continue to decline in the later period, and the weak finishing of diammonium will be the main trend.

On March 31, the sulfur commodity index was 34.39, down 1.46 points from yesterday, 66.88% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and 33.35% higher than 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the sulfur production price in East China fell 4.08% to 626.67 yuan / ton on December 31. The domestic sulfur market is stagnant, and the closure of India has affected the mentality of the industry. The enthusiasm of the downstream market is not high, the actual information is limited, and most of them are on-demand procurement and wait-and-see. At present, the domestic supply and demand are lack of substantive information guidance, the export of chemical fertilizer is confused, the port inventory is still at a high level, the start-up of terminal enterprises is not high, the price of purchase intention in the market is on the low side, the buyer and the seller have no intention of shipping at a low price for the time being, the negotiation between the buyer and the seller is deadlocked and wait-and-see mood is strong, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, and the performance of the sulphuric acid market is cold. Refineries in various regions in China will offer lower prices according to their own delivery conditions, Sinopec will offer lower prices of solid sulfur in East China by 30 yuan / ton, at 580-680 yuan / ton; North China will offer lower prices of liquid sulfur by 10 yuan / ton, at 400-450 yuan / ton; Sinopec Shandong will offer lower prices of liquid sulfur by 20 yuan / ton, at 410-460 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: it is expected that the domestic sulfur market will operate in a light and stable way in the short term.