1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on February 1 was 3090 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month (29 days) was 3053.33 yuan / ton, down 1.19% in the month, 30.71% compared with the same period last year. On March 5, the LNG commodity index was 75.67, up 0.25 points from yesterday, down 63.79% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and up 9.91% from 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of March 5, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3100 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3030 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. Zizhou LNG plant was 3130 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was 2320 yuan / ton Right, the LNG price of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3370 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan green energy natural gas Co., Ltd. is 3080 yuan / ton. The price of liquid in various regions is up and down.

Market analysis: in February, the trend of LNG rose and fell, and the overall trend was up and down. Since February, the trend of LNG has been poor, falling continuously. Affected by public health events, most of the downstream plants are delayed to start, traffic control is strict, some of the liquid plants are in a state of wait-and-see, and the price of liquid continues to decline. Since the middle of February, all regions began to resume work one after another, with a certain increase in demand, but still weak. Affected by poor shipment, LNG plants have increased liquid level, LNG plants are actively discharging, market breadth is falling, and the low level is stuck. From 0:00 on February 17 to the end of the prevention and control work, toll roads across the country are free of vehicle tolls, and LNG transportation conditions are improved. Most regions in China have cancelled the prevention and control stations set on high-speed toll stations and national and provincial trunk roads since 0:00 on February 21-24, respectively, and many traffic has been recovered, which is conducive to the shipment of LNG manufacturers. The start-up of the liquid plant has been resumed one after another, the operating rate has increased, the LNG plant has actively discharged the storage, the shipment situation has improved, and the prices in some regions have been rising continuously. From 17th to 24th, it rose 6.33% in a row, bringing a short-term market. Near the end of the month, with the sharp decline of crude oil and liquefied gas market, there is a certain impact on LNG. In addition, with the increase of start-up of manufacturers, the production is gradually increasing, and the supply of goods is sufficient. After the price is raised in the early stage, the volume of transactions is not as expected, and the inventory is increasing. The liquid plants follow the market, and successively reduce the prices. At the end of the month, LNG prices end in a decline.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, there are three kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in February 2020, among which one is more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the energy sector; the top three commodities are petroleum coke (26.38%), dynamic coal (2.09%) and coking coal (0.79%). There are 12 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 7 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are liquefied gas (- 15.59%), MTBE (- 15.56%), dimethyl ether (- 10.08%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 3.68%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analysts of the business association, in March, the LNG market showed a mixed situation, with some liquid prices in the North rising slightly and those in the South falling. At present, the competition between land and sea is encouraging. Under the impact of imported low-cost gas, domestic gas is afraid of insufficient power to rise. It is expected that the market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong this week is 4600 yuan / ton, which is stable.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4500 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4700 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. The downstream market demand of POM is still weak and stable.

Industry chain: according to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol market is in a narrow range. As of February 26, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2022 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last month, the price fell by 9.81% month on month and 15.38% year on year. At present, the methanol market has been adjusted in a narrow range.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of POM in the business association, the downstream market demand of POM is light and stable, and POM may adjust its weakness.

On March 1, the PX commodity index was 50.40, the same as yesterday, down 50.78% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 10.65% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined slightly, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, the operation of other units is stable temporarily, and the domestic p-xylene plant has been opened The working rate is about 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the recent trend of crude oil price falls, and the market price of p-xylene is affected. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On February 28, the closing price of PX market in Asia dropped by 19 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 667-669 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 687-689 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The decline of external price has a certain positive impact on the market price of PX in China, and the market price trend of PX dropped.

WTI crude oil futures market in the U.S. continued the previous four trading days. The price continued to fall, with a large drop. The main contract was 44.76 yuan / barrel, down $2.44. Brent crude oil futures market price also continued to fall sharply, with the main contract at $49.67/barrel, down $2.06. The decline of crude oil price was negative for domestic chemical products price, and the trend of domestic p-xylene price fell.

In terms of PTA in the lower reaches, the price has been slightly reduced to 4200-4300 yuan / ton in the near future, but due to seasonal and epidemic impact, PTA social inventory has increased sharply. It is understood that the current social inventory has exceeded 2 million tons, an increase of about 500000 tons compared with that before the festival. In recent days, the market is worried again, and the PTA period price has begun to be explored twice. At present, the terminal weaving enterprises return to work less than expected, and the inventory pressure is transmitted to all links of the industry chain from the bottom to the top. The contradiction between PTA supply and demand is more prominent. In the later stage, it will still present a weak pattern, and the downstream construction is generally delayed. In addition, PTA supply remains relatively resilient, so that the market accumulation exceeds expectations, and PTA market price returns The price trend of p-xylene declined.

In recent years, the trend of crude oil price continues to decline, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. In addition, the downstream demand of the terminal has not improved significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may be slightly lower.

1、 Price trend:

On February 28, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 56.66, unchanged from yesterday, down 44.46% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 27.15% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: this week, the start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises gradually recovered, the overall operating rate increased by about 10%, the crude oil and pure benzene external market fell sharply, Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price decreased to 5350 yuan / ton, and the hydrogenated benzene market fell by about 50 yuan / ton this week, as of Friday, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong region was about 4925 yuan / ton, and the price fell slightly. The start-up of downstream styrene and aniline is still at a relatively low level in the near future, and some styrene units are still planned to be shut down for maintenance in the middle and late March. In the short term, they are basically faced with market difficulties, which is conducive to supporting the overall demand of downstream enterprises. At present, the cost pressure of hydrogenation benzene enterprises is large, and the delivery situation is general.

Industry chain: in terms of crude oil: this week, the crude oil changed the form of continuous increase last week, falling for four consecutive days, and WTI fell to the lowest point of this year. The spread of the epidemic in many countries has led to increased market worries and a pressure drop in oil prices. Brent was down 10.76% and WTI was down 11.41% compared with February 21.. Pure benzene: this week, the trading atmosphere of pure benzene was weak, crude oil and external market fell, and the support under pure benzene was insufficient. The lack of downstream shipping power and inventory accumulation further worsened the confidence of pure benzene market participants. On Wednesday, Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 5350 yuan / ton. Downstream: demand for downstream styrene is not strong, and inventory pressure is high. Friday’s price is 6700 yuan / ton, up 1.01% from last week.

3、 Trend Forecast:

At present, the pressure of hydrogenation benzene enterprises is prominent, the external market of pure benzene continues to decline, the downstream construction cannot be recovered in a short time, and it is expected that the hydrogenation benzene market will remain weak and stagnant.