On September 12, the rare earth index was 381 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 61.90% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 40.59% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 2,000 yuan per ton to 415,500 yuan per ton, Dysprosium by 2,325,000 yuan per ton and praseodymium by 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 330,500 yuan/ton, 193,000 yuan/ton, 382,500 yuan/ton and 332,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 415,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys was 1.93 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the prices of some products in the rare earth field have been rising continuously. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The prices of dysprosium and terbium metals and oxides have maintained a high level. Recent inquiries for neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide have increased in the field, and the prices of light rare earth oxides have maintained a rising trend. At that time, light rare earth merchants in the field were reluctant to sell and optimistic about the future market. Recent on-site transactions are general. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Especially some mainstream rare earth oxides are in normal supply. The price trend of rare earth market has risen. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general and the turnover has not changed much.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has been making strict investigations. Strengthening the supervision of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The start-up of the rare earth industry is relatively low and the market is cold, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, the supply of Jiangxi rare earth industry will be reduced, but the demand of rare earth downstream will be supported in the near future. It is expected that some prices of rare earth market will continue to rise slightly.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices have soared recently. From September 6 to September 10, the average price of cobalt has risen by nearly 20,000 yuan in three trading days. As of September 10, the price of cobalt was 291,000 yuan/ton, which was 272,000 yuan/ton higher than the average price on September 5. The price of cobalt rose by 19,000 yuan/ton, or 6.99% in the three trading days. What causes the recent surge in cobalt prices? Can the cobalt market continue to grow?

II. Market Analysis

1. International Cobalt Price Rising Pressure Returns to Domestic

MB Cobalt Price Continuously Rises

As of September 6, MB standard grade cobalt is offered at US$16.8-17.5 per pound, alloy grade cobalt is offered at US$17.05-18.35 per pound, and MB cobalt is converted into RMB over 300,000 yuan per ton. The continuous increase of MB quotation is one of the main reasons for the recent soaring cobalt price. In the earlier period, the domestic cobalt price was too low and the international cobalt price was higher than the domestic cobalt price, which is conducive to the domestic cobalt export, accelerating the reduction of domestic cobalt stock and further leading to the rise of domestic cobalt price.

Cobalt Price Rising in LME Market

Since September, the cobalt price in LME market has risen sharply. The international cobalt price is obviously higher than the domestic cobalt price, which is conducive to the export of domestic cobalt and accelerates the de-stocking of domestic cobalt, which is good for the cobalt market.

2. Cost Pressure and Expected Supply Reduction Pressure of Cobalt Mines

According to the cost of cobalt ore, the cost of crude cobalt raw materials in domestic smelters may be 183,000 yuan/ton (excluding tax). The tax cost of electric cobalt products is higher than 260,000 yuan/ton. The high cost of raw materials pushes up the price of domestic electric cobalt. Jianengke KCC production reduction and Muanda shutdown, the active reduction of civilian mining, resulting in the expected reduction of cobalt production, cobalt prices in the future rise is better.

3. Cobalt enterprises in the stock market follow the trend

From the reaction of the stock market, we can see that the cold cobalt industry rose and stopped one day, Huayou cobalt industry rose 6.68% one day, and the stock market followed the trend of the spot market. The main reason is that after the cobalt price bottomed in mid-July, the spot cobalt price has continued to rise for nearly two months, which supports the cobalt smelting enterprises in China. Against the background of decreasing stock of cobalt raw materials and decreasing supply of international cobalt ore, cobalt smelting enterprises have a very low willingness to ship at a low price, which objectively promotes the rise of cobalt price.

4. Downstream Demand Expectation

New Energy Vehicles Keep Rising

According to the data of the Ride Federation, in August 2019, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars were 71,000 units, down 15.5% year on year and up 6% year on year. In August, the wholesale growth rate of pure electric passenger cars increased by 0% and 17% year-on-year. From January to August, 714,000 new energy passenger cars were wholesaled, an increase of 41.7% year on year. New energy vehicles still have good performance, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly. In the future, the demand for cobalt for new energy vehicles will still increase, but the growth rate may be difficult to anticipate.

Mobile phone sales are declining

According to the data of CITIC, in July 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 34.19 million units, down 7.5% from the same period last year; in January-July 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 220 million units, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Domestic mobile phone sales declined, not with the advent of 5G, ushered in greater improvement. On the contrary, the imperfection of 5G infrastructure and the single model of 5G mobile phone affected consumers’enthusiasm for switching. It is expected that the 5G switching tide will indeed come in 2020. The demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market in 2019 is not obvious.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the rising cost of cobalt ore has led to a series of changes in the follow-up market. The cobalt price of less than 200,000 yuan/ton in the earlier period has led to the loss of cobalt enterprises. The reduction of production of Glencore and the increase of prices of other cobalt enterprises are all acts of stress to enterprises with low cobalt prices. With the cobalt price approaching the 300,000 yuan mark again, it may be difficult for the cobalt price to continue the miracle of cobalt price. From the cost point of view, 300,000 yuan/ton cobalt price cobalt enterprises have enough profit space, too high cobalt price is bound to suffer unanimous boycott from downstream customers, affecting the rise of cobalt price; from the demand point of view, although the sales of new energy vehicles are still rising substantially, but the growth rate has declined significantly compared with previous years, NEW energy vehicles are the rising belt of cobalt market. The power has slowed down and it is difficult to support the rapid rise of cobalt price. The demand expectation of 5G mobile phone is one of the important supports for the continuation of cobalt price in the future. However, from the current performance of mobile phone market, it is difficult for the mobile phone market to rise significantly in a short period of time. On the contrary, the imperfection of 5G infrastructure and the selection of 5G models are less at this stage. It will reduce consumers’enthusiasm for switching phones. It is expected that the peak of mobile phone switching will come in 2020. The demand of cobalt market has not been better in the near future. In summary, the recent rise in cobalt prices is a comprehensive response to the cumulative transmission of cost pressures and supply expectations. In terms of demand, the future cobalt price has no effective support to sustain the rapid rise of cobalt price. There is still room for future cobalt prices to rise, but the slowdown is inevitable, and the future cobalt market will rise smoothly in a relatively long period of time.

Price Trend

According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of September 10, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9 280 yuan/ton, which was 0.85% lower than that of the previous year and 18.19% lower than that of the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic BDO market wait-and-see consolidation, light on-site trading atmosphere, poor mentality of traders, low enthusiasm for trading, cautious shipment, some large orders have small profit concessions, weak downstream inquiries, maintain just needed about the main, BDO market is expected to reorganize and operate in the future.

On the market side, the BDO market in South China is tidied up and running. The bulk water quotation refers to 8600-9000 yuan/ton, the barrel part of the market is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the atmosphere of on-site delivery is light, the trader’s mentality is not good, and the downstream just needs long follow-up. East China BDO market wait and see, bulk water supply reference quotation 8600-9000 yuan/ton acceptance, market barrel loading part of small orders 9600-10000 yuan/ton, on-site delivery atmosphere is weak, traders are cautious, along with the market shipment, downstream just need to follow up.

Industry chain: raw materials, methanol: methanol market rose. The guided price in Inner Mongolia this week is 100 yuan/ton higher than last week, 1 670 yuan/ton ex-factory spot on the southern line and 1 700 yuan/ton ex-factory spot on the northern line. The main local enterprises have not yet issued a new price. The main enterprises in Guanzhong area quoted 1890-1950 yuan per ton of spot cash. The atmosphere in the morning was slightly rigid. With the futures rising in the afternoon, the market atmosphere warmed up. At present, major enterprises such as Changqing and Xianyang have stopped selling.

Calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has been narrowly increased, and the regional uneven delivery has aggravated the market wait-and-see. Shanxi and Henan are in a tight supply. Henan has raised the purchase price of calcium carbide. At present, it reaches 3150 yuan per ton. Limited electricity occurs from time to time in the Wuhai and Wumeng regions. Inventory of enterprises is low. Some enterprises are leading the rise, and the atmosphere around them is strong. Transportation pressure in North China is gradually increasing, and enterprises are mainly on the sidelines. It is expected that the mainstream transactions in Wuhai and Ningxia will increase the purchasing activity of downstream enterprises.

3. Future Market Forecast

Early in the week, there was less market news, and with factories raising their offer last Friday, the industry was more cautious about watching the market. Dongyuan plans to start on the 10th and increase the supply of goods in the market. However, the downstream industries start at a low level and replenish warehouses on demand. Supply and demand negotiation saw, business association BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market is weak, pay more attention to supply and demand changes.

Price Trend

The propylene oxide market fell first and then rose this week, according to business associations’big list data. As of September 6, the average price of propylene oxide was 10,200 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the beginning of the week and 2.34% from August 6. The mainstream price of propylene oxide in China ranged from 9900 to 10500 yuan/ton on June 6.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: The market for propylene oxide fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of propylene oxide was about 10,166.67 yuan/ton, the atmosphere of profit was strong, the factory was active in delivering goods, the new orders were not followed up well, the average price of propylene oxide was about 10,100 yuan/ton in the middle of the week, the price fell to a low level, the purchase volume of downstream increased, the stock was quickly digested, and the market of propylene oxide stopped falling and rebounded with the demand for polyether in the downstream. Gradually increasing, the average price of propylene oxide on Friday was around 10,200 yuan/ton, the factory inventory was low, and the market turnover was stable. As of June 6, the cash delivery price of Wanhua Chemistry Shandong Mainstream Market was 10,200 yuan/ton, and that of East China Mainstream Market was 10,500 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in eastern China is around 10,200 yuan/ton, which is remitted to Shandong; the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 9,950 yuan/ton, which is remitted to factories; and the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in southern China is around 9,900 yuan/ton, which is remitted to factories.

Industry chain: This week, the market in Shandong area of propylene in the upstream rose slightly, with a weekly increase of 0.60%. The price of propylene enterprises in Shandong Province increased by 50-100 yuan/ton on September 1, and only a few enterprises increased on September 3-5, and all of them stabilized on September 6. At present, the market turnover is about 7650-7750 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is about 7650 yuan/ton. Propylene stocks in Shandong remain low and supply is tight this week. The stable operation of n-propanol in the downstream this week has little effect on propylene oxide. In the near weekend, new orders in the downstream polyether market follow-up weakening, which has some restrictions on the price of propylene oxide.

3. Future market forecast:

Propylene oxide analysts believe that propylene oxide prices are rising in the upstream, supported by the cost of raw materials and low inventory of propylene oxide plants, the market of propylene oxide is good, but the slow follow-up of downstream demand will have some restrictions on propylene oxide upstream, and the market of propylene oxide is expected to reorganize in the short term. Mainly, more attention should be paid to the transaction situation in the mainstream market.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic liquefied natural gas market stopped falling and rebounded, all the way up. At the beginning of the week (02), the average price of domestic LNG market was 2990 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week (06), the average price was 3056.67 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 2.23%, which was 20.63% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: According to the data of business associations, as of September 06, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. is 320 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 2950 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG Plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3200 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is about 2550 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Qinshui New Olympics in Shanxi is 3200 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan Green Energy Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3100 yuan/ton. The Qinghua Energy Group in Xinjiang has the LNG price of 3200 yuan/ton. LNG Company Limited is priced at 3300 yuan/ton.

Market analysis: The liquefied natural gas market improved this week. From August 31 to September 10, PetroChina restricted the supply of natural gas to LNG plants in Shaanxi. The production load of LNG plants was at a low level, and the overall supply in Northwest China began to decrease. Under this influence, prices in some areas began to stop falling and rebound, and continued to rise. Because of the low level of liquid price in the early period, upstream part of the upstream hang upstream shipment. Because of the consideration of production costs, liquid factories have a strong willingness to push prices, and the surrounding areas also adjust prices with the price rise in the Northwest region, fluctuating slightly and going on as a whole. However, this year’s overall market downturn, environmental policy, terminal demand is limited, upstream continuous pricing can not be recognized downstream, so the market has limited room for growth.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were five kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, of which more than 5% increased, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were MTBE (8.16%), gasoline (2.24%) and methanol (1.22%). There are 11 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dimethyl ether (-9.03%), liquefied natural gas (-7.08%) and Brent crude oil (-6.28%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.52%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business associations believe that the price of LNG has increased, but the high price of LNG makes the downstream delivery more weak, the market demand is insufficient, and the terminal consumption capacity of environmental production restriction is weakened. With the end of the northwest gas restriction, the LNG market will return to normal at that time. It is expected that the price of LNG will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

I. Rising and falling lists

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in August 2019, there were 6 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices. The top three commodities were cis-butadiene rubber (4.11%), styrene-butadiene rubber (2.88%) and natural rubber (0.99%). There are 10 kinds of goods declining in the ring-to-ring ratio, and 3 kinds of goods declining more than 5% accounted for 18.8% of the monitored goods in this sector. The products of the first three declines were PA66 (-6.35%), LLDPE (-5.98%) and HDPE (-5.67%). This month’s average rise and fall was -1.63%. Among them, natural rubber ring rose 0.99% and 1.18% year-on-year, with a small margin.

II. Commodity Index

On August 30, the natural rubber commodity index was 31.39, up 0.05 points from yesterday, down 68.61% from the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 11.51% from the 28.15 point on November 25, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

3. Market Trend

In the first half of 2019, the market of natural rubber was ups and downs, while in the second half, it was still quite distressing. The first quarter experienced a sharp increase of nearly 10% in February, and fell back to the starting line in March. The second quarter rebounded 4% in April and then started the decline mode until the last trading day when the Customs announced the policy of “mixing rubber classification” began to rise. In May, the price of rubber continued to rise. The impact of classification and inspection of mixed rubber, high temperature and drought and insect pests was tremendous. Especially, the shortage of new rubber supply caused worries about future supply. The price of Tianguo had risen by 10%, followed by a drop in sentiment and a three-point decline in the price shock of rubber. June continued to be a weak shock, a monthly decline of 5.7%, known as “business is very difficult to do”. In the first half of July, Tianjiao shocks dropped until the 16th RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points, down 150 points on the same day, the lowest point of the month, with a decline of 8.15% on the 1st to 16th days. After that, Tianjiao shocks rebounded in the second half of the month and then decreased slightly, with the main contract closing at 10670 points on the last trading day of the month. Entering August, the last energy issue of Tianjiao 20 glue was a major event. On the first day of listing, the benchmark price of No. 20 glue was 9885 yuan/ton. Each contract rose sharply. The main force of the contract in 2002 once exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton, and the market participation mood was high. In the following days, it gradually returned to calm. It closed at 1,030 yuan/ton on Friday, up 155 yuan/ton. Points: Futures of full latex are still weak, spot prices are falling, and the monitoring data of business associations (100ppi.com) show that in 17 years, the mainstream price of SCRWF in East China was 10520 yuan/ton on 1 day and 10624 yuan/ton on 30 days, with a monthly increase of 0.99%. Among them, the highest price was 106 24 yuan/ton on 31 day, and the lowest price came out. Now 2 days of 10,260 yuan/ton, the maximum amplitude is 3.55%. From the morphological point of view, in the first half of August, the overall trend is incomplete “W” trend, in the second half of the month, the overall trend is “V”. In that month, the overall small shock, the market is weak, and the last day of the end of the month, the price upward trend is obvious.

IV. Factor Analysis

Rubber-producing factors: In August, the main natural rubber producing areas encountered bad weather, the weather returned to normal in the second half of the month, rubber tapping went smoothly in the peak season, and the output increased significantly. Recent data from the Association of Natural Rubber Producers (ANRPC) show that the global production of natural rubber in the first five months of 2019 was 4.93 million tons, down 6.5% year on year. At the same time, the world natural rubber consumption increased by 0.9% to 5.8 million tons, the gap between the two is less than 860,000 tons. The analysis shows that the reason is that the price of Tianguo has dropped from 40,000 to less than 10,000 tons. The sharp reduction of Tianguo income and the increase of costs such as tapping labor will lead to a sharp decrease in the enthusiasm of rubber farmers, and the output will be affected naturally.

Import and Export: China imports 553,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in July 2019, up 25.4% annually, down 3.15% from the same period last year, and 3629,000 tons in January-July, down 7.1% from 3994,000 tons in the same period last year. Vietnam: According to the Vietnam News Agency, data from the Import and Export Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam show that rubber exports and exports increased by 8.2% and 4.5% from January to July 2019, respectively, by 764,000 tons and 1.05 billion US dollars. In July, Vietnam’s rubber export volume and export volume reached 150,000 tons and 211 million US dollars respectively, which increased by 22.2% and 20.9% annually, respectively, and increased by 5.7% and 12.5% year-on-year respectively. The price of latex materials in Vietnam is also declining due to the fear that demand will decrease and the price of rubber market in the world will continue to decline. The decline in rubber prices is due to the prolongation of the Sino-US trade war and the slowdown of global economic growth, resulting in a decline in rubber demand. According to other statistics, Vietnam exported 116,000 tons to China in July, up 63.31% annually and 21.99% year-on-year. From January to July, exports to China reached 501,100 tons, an increase of 9.69% over the same period last year. Thailand: Data show that in June 2019, Thailand’s exports of natural rubber (including composite rubber) increased by 3.2% year-on-year and 11% year-on-year. Indonesia: Natural rubber exports in June 2019 were 225,000 tons, down 14.96% annually and up 1.4% year-on-year. Among them, standard rubber exports were 191,000 tons, mixed rubber 0.26 million tons and cigarette film 0.84 million tons. From January to June, the total export volume of natural rubber in Indonesia was 1.2974 million tons, down 13.11% from the same period last year. Malaysia: According to statistics released by the Bureau of Statistics, Malaysia’s natural rubber production in June was 36957 tons, down 107.5 million tons from 41,364 tons in the same period last year. The analysis shows that from September, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries jointly restrict the export of Tianguo expired, and the domestic import of Tianguo may increase.

Demand aspect: In August, tyre enterprises were limited by high temperature power limitation and typhoon storm, but after the typhoon, the start-up rate rebounded. As of August 30, 2019, the start-up load of all-steel tyres in Shandong tyre enterprises was 69.61%, 7.95 percentage points higher than the previous period, 10.53 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The start-up load of semi-steel tyres in domestic tire enterprises is 70.23%, which is 11.07 percentage points higher than the previous period and 17.27 percentage points higher than the same period last year. However, the peak season of all steel dealers is not strong and the stock is high. Statistics show that China’s tire production continued to decline in the first half of 2019, with a total tire output of 403,745,000 in January-June, down 1% from the same period last year; in July, China’s heavy truck sales of 76,000 vehicles, a 27% decline in the ring, a 2% increase over the same period last year; in January-July, the total sales of 732,300 vehicles, a 2% decrease over the same period last year. In July, China’s automobile production and sales declined by 5% and 12.1% respectively, 11.9% and 4.3% respectively, compared with the same period last year. From January to July, automobile production and sales completed 13.933 million vehicles and 14.132 million vehicles respectively, down 13.5% and 11.4% from the same period last year. In terms of export situation, the Sino-US trade war situation is still grim and export is affected.

Inventory: Tianguo stock is still high in China. As of August 30, 2019, the natural rubber stock in the previous period was 463555 (4046) tons and warehouse receipt was 421180 (4070) tons.

Relevant news: In mid-August, the State Council issued “Opinions on Speeding up the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption”, proposing 20 policy measures such as gradually relaxing or abolishing car purchase restrictions and supporting green intelligent commodities to replace old ones with new ones; in June, the State Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued documents, proposing that new car purchase restrictions should be strictly prohibited in all parts of the country. Regulations. Experts believe that the trend of “relaxation” can be seen from the document, together with the issue of “20 consumption items”, to promote China’s automobile consumption has become an overall tone, and the prospects for automobile production and marketing are optimistic.

Relevant products: According to the data of business associations, the commodity index of cis-butadiene rubber on August 30 was 33.27, up 0.75 points from yesterday, down 67.51% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2011-09-25), up 40.14% from the lowest point of 23.74 on February 04, 2015; the commodity index of styrene-butadiene rubber on August 30 was 34.27, which was the same as yesterday. The highest point of the cycle was 103.60 points (2011-09-08), down 66.92%, up 20.63% from the lowest point of 28.41 on January 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

V. Future Market Forecast

According to the natural rubber analyst of the business association, under the current high production and high inventory of natural rubber, the start-up rate of downstream tire enterprises is rising continuously, and the policy advocates to cancel or relax the restrictions on automobile consumption, which is the most optimistic prospect for the demand-oriented of natural rubber, which is the most important advantage. Follow-up attention to the seasonal consumption characteristics of autumn, the upcoming “nine gold and ten silver” consumption season can be expected.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of September 4, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 13075 yuan/ton, which was 3.15% lower than the previous year and 24.20% lower than the previous year. The overall market is tidied up in a narrow range.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregated MDI market stalemate weak collation. The early market atmosphere is weak and quiet, and the price of the holder is stable, and there is no lack of low-price hearing. Ruian announced that the weekly guidance was raised to 13500 yuan/ton. There was a problem in Nanyang plant in Japan. The mother liquor supply of domestic plant was affected, and the installation load of Ruian plant was lowered. Businessmen’s mentality is not very responsive and they are cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term domestic market price of polymerized MDI will run steadily, while the price of polyurethane in Guangzhou will not change much during the International Polyurethane Fair.

On the market side, the aggregation of MDI market in North China is mainly weak and deadlocked. The atmosphere inside the venue is quiet, the price quoted by the holder is stable, the shipment status is maintained, and under the pressure of cost, the real price is not heard much. East China aggregates the weak operation of MDI market. The news is light, the shipment is mainly accompanied by the holder, and the downstream end is scarce. South China aggregates weak shocks in the MDI market. The news was light and the atmosphere was too quiet. Holders mainly accompany the shipment, lack confidence in the future market, there is no lack of low-price hearing.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: pure benzene Market in Shandong Province is light, it is known that most downstream currently no plans to stock up, just need to take goods. Geotechnical refineries generally deliver goods at stable prices, with mainstream prices ranging from 5100 to 5400 yuan/ton and individual prices ranging from 5050 yuan/ton.
Aniline: Pure Benzene Dollar has fallen sharply and cost support has weakened. And downstream just need to take goods, aniline factory inventory has accumulated. Aniline market is weak and stable. The mainstream negotiation price reference in North China is 6130-6320 yuan/ton, while the mainstream reference in East China is 6300 yuan/ton acceptance.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: Business Cooperative Polymerization MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic market price of polymerization MDI is mainly stable, and the price changes during Guangzhou International Polyurethane Fair are not significant.

On September 2, the PX commodity index was 52.80, down 0.4 points from yesterday, down 48.44% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), up 15.92% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 3rd, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was started one line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily for the time being due to the introduction of new units. Domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, and market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX units in Asia is about 80%. On September 2, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 8 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 759-761 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 778-780 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is stable for the time being.

On September 2, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was stable at $55.10 per barrel, up or down by $0. Brent crude oil futures fell to $58.66 per barrel, down by $0.59. The market’s worries about the prospect of oil demand continued to intensify. In a recent report issued by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the growth rate of global crude oil demand per day in 2019 is expected to be reduced from 1.5 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels. It is also expected that there will be a slight surplus in the oil market in 2020, and that the trend of crude oil prices will decline, which will have a negative impact on downstream petrochemical products and the market price of paraxylene. The trend of the latter is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has maintained a low price, PTA price has been stable for 3 days. The average price of East China is raised near 5150-5250 yuan/ton. As of the 2nd day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 94.5%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%. The PTA social stock is estimated to be about 1.4 million tons. Affected by the shutdown and maintenance of the plant, it maintained in August as a whole. A small rhythm of de-warehousing. PTA factory inventory accounts for about 30%, polyester factory raw material inventory accounts for about 28%, downstream polyester factory has space to continue to replenish. Towards the traditional sales season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” for textiles, downstream terminal enterprises may usher in the procurement cycle and demand side will improve. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain low in the short term.

Price Trend

In August 2019, the price of sulphuric acid Market in Shandong fell sharply. The quotation fell from 225.00 yuan/ton on August 1 to 215.00 yuan/ton on August 31, falling by 10 yuan/ton, or 4.44%. Overall, the sulphuric acid Market in Shandong fell in August, 53.01% lower than the same period last year, and the sulphuric acid commodity index was 35.80% on August 31.

II. Market Analysis

(1) Products:

This month, the prices of some sulphuric acid factories in Shandong fell, with fewer inventories and fewer downstream demand. The price of Heze Jiangyuan sulphuric acid fell from 220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 180 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the price fell by 40 yuan/ton; Zouping Tianlu sulphuric acid price was 60 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei price was 450 yuan/ton, which was temporarily stable.

(2) Industrial chain:

The domestic sulphur market fell this month, with a large decline, which had a negative impact on sulphuric acid. The quotation fell from 860.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 693.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 19.38%, 43.01% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of bromine in the downstream market fluctuated little, but the turnover was light, the new single transaction was not satisfactory and the trading atmosphere was not good. Good, the diammonium market is low and consolidated. Sulphuric acid enterprises have many early orders. Short-term start-up is insufficient and supply is slightly tight. This month, domestic sulphuric acid plants run smoothly, market supply is relatively tight, downstream gas purchases are general, market transactions are limited, and with the National Day approaching, downstream manufacturers began to stop production.

(3) Industry:

In August 2019, there were 37 commodities on the rise and fall list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, of which 15 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 17.9% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (39.93%), acetic acid (20.90%) and butadiene (14.47%).

There are 39 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 15.5% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-27.58%), epichlorohydrin (-23.28%) and sulfur (-19.38%).

This month’s average rise and fall was 0.03%. Overall, the sulfur market has fallen considerably, which has a negative impact on sulfuric acid demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. Supply is relatively slow, downstream purchasing is general, and products go down under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term market in Shandong Province, supported by supply and demand and raw materials and other factors, the sulfuric acid market tends to decline.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of pure benzene was between 5000 and 5350 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. It began to decline on August 5, and reached the lowest price of 4750-5100 yuan/ton on August 12. On the 14th, it began to stop falling and rebound, and stepped up. At the end of this month, the price of pure benzene ranged from 5200 to 5300 yuan/ton, up 1.15% from last month.

II. Analytical Review

1. Crude oil: European and American crude oil shocks fell in August. Oil distribution fell 6.54% from the end of last month, while U.S. oil fell 3.91% from the end of last month. Bear: Mainly affected by trade disputes, market concerns about slowing economic growth, declining demand for crude oil intensified, and oil prices fell. Game with other positive factors, leading to this month’s international oil price shocks.

2. Products: At the beginning of the month, the price of crude oil and pure benzene on the external market continued to fall, which had a negative impact on the domestic market, and the downstream market was relatively weak, with the price of pure benzene falling. Affected by typhoon in the middle of the year, some installations in Shandong stopped, the supply decreased, and the price of pure benzene rebounded. Subsequently, due to the shortfall in the supply of pure benzene in the United States, the price of pure benzene in the U.S. dollar disk continued to rise, and the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea remained open, supporting the domestic pure benzene market to improve.

3. Downstream: Aniline in the lower reaches of this month rose by 3.39% and fluctuated by nearly 8% compared with the previous month. Aniline downstream market is general, this month’s price fluctuations are mainly affected by pure benzene prices. The price of downstream styrene was basically flat compared with that of last month, with a monthly fluctuation of about 4%. This month, downstream pure styrene has a larger profit and a better market.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude oil: Although the crude oil market is improving at the end of the month, the pressure of trade disputes is still huge and the market is not optimistic.

2. Domestic and foreign markets: At present, domestic pure benzene stock is relatively small, and Korean plant overhaul and European overhaul are not yet over, global supply is tight, boosting the market. Hearing that the current CFR China talks in September are still on the low side, it is expected that shipments will be limited throughout September. At present, the price difference between Sinopec and other domestic pure benzene enterprises is relatively small, and there is still an upward possibility.

Taking into account, the short-term pure benzene market is expected to continue to rise.