1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1198 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1164 yuan / ton. The price was reduced by 2.84%, and the price increased by 98.13% over the same period last year. On July 17, the caustic soda commodity index was 168.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.69% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 158.12% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 09, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was weak this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1080-1200 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1100-1300 yuan / ton. The overall start-up has not changed much, and downstream enterprises are mainly on the sidelines. Enterprises generally ship goods, with heavy on-site wait-and-see mood, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. The overall trading is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 28th week of 2022 (7.11-7.15), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 5 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling. The main commodities that fell were hydrochloric acid (-12.82%), PVC (-5.13%) and caustic soda (-2.50%). The average rise and fall this week was -4.31%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda is weak, and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream alumina is obvious. It is mainly purchased on demand, the overall demand is limited, and the market atmosphere is weak. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent weak market operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

This week, the lead market (7.8-7.15) fell after a shock. The average price of the domestic market was 14900 yuan / ton last weekend and 14630 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.81% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 28th week of 2022 (7.11-7.15), there is a total of one commodity rising in the non-ferrous sector, and the rising commodity is metallic silicon (2.43%). A total of 20 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 6 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 26.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were nickel (-8.74%), zinc (-6.02%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-5.94%). The average rise and fall this week was -2.84%.

Lead futures market this week

varieties,. Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 14650 yuan / ton- 220 yuan / ton, 87931 tons

London lead, 1939 dollars / ton+ 14 dollars / ton, 39225 tons

In terms of the futures market, the overall decline this week did not rebound on the 12th. On the night of the 11th, the dollar rose sharply, the crude oil price fell significantly, the overall performance of the metal market rose and fell, and the lead price trend was stronger. Lun lead and Shanghai lead rose more than 1% at night. Shanghai lead continued to rise in early trading on the 12th, rising 1.52% as of the close. In terms of inventory, LME inventory was generally stable this week, and the inventory in the previous period fell.

In terms of supply, the recent overhaul of the smelter was completed, the operating rate was increased, and the lead supply was restored. In terms of recycled lead, Anhui, the main production area, is limited, and the recent production is likely to decline, which is good for primary lead. The recent performance of the demand side is still off-season, but with the improvement of car sales, the recent start-up of battery enterprises has increased to a certain extent. In terms of the spot market, most of them kept a wait-and-see attitude this week because of the approaching delivery. With the obvious decline in prices, it is expected that downstream storage enterprises will have a certain intention of receiving goods. Under the pattern of both supply and demand, it is expected that the lead price will be stable, medium and strong in the future.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell slightly this week. The sulfuric acid price fell from 950.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 892.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.11%, and a year-on-year increase of 38.65% compared with the same period last year. On July 14, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 143.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.70% from the highest point of 188.07 in the cycle (2022-04-13), and up 355.27% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market continued to decline, and the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing weakened

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell slightly this week, the manufacturer’s inventory was general, and the downstream demand weakened. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 910 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid offered 800 yuan / ton this weekend, down 40 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 900 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Changjiang sulphuric acid quoted 950 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid is quoted at 900 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market fell sharply. The sulfur price fell from 3166.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 1776.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 43.89%, up 7.89% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream market fell sharply, and the cost support was seriously insufficient. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market was consolidated at a low level, with the market price of 11280.00 yuan / ton, up 12.57% year-on-year from the same period last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market fell slightly, and the market price fell from 20083.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 19000.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 5.39%, down 10.52% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened.

Slightly volatile decline in the aftermarket

In the middle and late July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fall slightly. The upstream sulfur market has fallen sharply recently, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide, ammonium sulfate market fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for the purchase of sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend fell under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analyst of business agency believes that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the domestic sulfuric acid Market in the short term, the market price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate and fall slightly.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 270.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 260.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.70%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 13.04%. On July 10, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 68.42, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.38% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 280.53% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is general

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dongming Petrochemical hydrochloric acid quoted 250 yuan / ton this weekend, down 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is quoted at 180 yuan / ton this weekend, which is lower than that of last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 450 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price was adjusted at a low level, with the price of about 2230.00 yuan / ton, up 29.40% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1565.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1540.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.60%. On the whole, the downstream market is general, and the downstream products are generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Aftermarket forecast

In mid July, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the downstream purchase intention was general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

This week, the domestic EVA market price continued to be weak as a whole, and the market focus still shifted downward. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 23000.00 yuan / ton on July 5 and 22500.00 yuan / ton on July 12, with a decrease of 2.17% during the week and an increase of 24.31% over the same period last year.

As of July 12, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

Products, manufactor., model., Ex factory price

EVA., Yanshan Petrochemical, 18J3., 22000 yuan / ton

EVA., Beijing Organic, Y2022., 22000 yuan / ton

EVA., BASF Yangzi, V5110J., 23500 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic EVA market trend has not improved, the price is still downward, the ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises continues to decline, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell within the week, and the lack of support brought by the cost side affects the market mentality. In addition, the terminal demand has not changed significantly, the downstream manufacturers are cautious, the purchase intention is still low, the market trading atmosphere is limited, the merchants’ mentality is poor, and the quotations are mostly weak.

At present, the international crude oil fell violently, the overall trend is weak, and the support brought by the cost is insufficient. The ex factory quotation of petrochemical enterprises has been reduced, the consumption of market supply is slow, the downstream market entry atmosphere is limited, the mentality of operators is pessimistic, the quotation of merchants has followed the decline, and the market lacks positive boost. It is expected that the price of domestic EVA market will continue to be reduced in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of July 12, pet water bottle level pet prices were weak in a narrow range this week. Compared with the weak price in the same period last week, the current average price was 9060 yuan / ton, the overall market was weak in a narrow range, the focus of negotiation was stable, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, and logistics shipments were smooth at present.

The domestic pet price is in a narrow range and weak operation. The price has been reduced slightly this week. At present, the market operating rate is normal, the manufacturers’ shipments are positive, the logistics is smooth, the order is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the downstream readiness for goods is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 9500 yuan / ton, which has been reduced slightly this week, and pet is stable, medium and weak in the short term. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai quyi Industrial Co., Ltd. 9150 yuan / ton, Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 9800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Sanfangxiang Group Co., Ltd. 9200 yuan / ton.

The upstream ethylene glycol market declined weakly. On July 6, the spot price of ethylene glycol in South China market was 4525 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day and 171.67 yuan / ton lower than last week.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on July 11, the rubber and plastic index was 745 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 29.72% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 41.10% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Pet analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to operate in a narrow range and weak in the short term. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

DOP price this week hit a new low this year

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, DOP prices fell sharply this week and hit a new low in the new year. As of July 11, the DOP price was 9075 yuan / ton, down 4.97% from 9550 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The cost of demand fell in the off-season, DOP prices continued to fall, and DOP prices hit a new low this year.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol fell sharply this week, and the market of isooctanol fell. As of July 11, the price of isooctanol was 8333.33 yuan / ton, down 6.37% from 8900 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. This week, the price of isooctanol fell sharply, the market cost of DOP fell, and the downward pressure on DOP increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell violently this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the phthalic anhydride market fell violently this week. As of July 11, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8350 yuan / ton, down 2.62% from 8575 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of o-xylene fell, the cost of phthalic anhydride fell, the downstream market fell, the demand for phthalic anhydride fell, the overall phthalic anhydride market fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DOP prices increased.

Aftermarket expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that downstream enterprises start at a low level, the market is off-season, downstream enterprises reduce production and increase, and the demand for plasticizers is insufficient; The price of raw material isooctanol fell sharply, the price of phthalic anhydride fell violently, the cost of plasticizer DOP fell, and the price of DOP fell sharply. In general, the cost of raw materials fell, the demand in the off-season was insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOP increased. It is expected that DOP prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 was stable this week, and the spot prices of some brands rose. As of July 8, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 15600 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam was stable this week. Raw material pure benzene continued to decline, international crude oil fell significantly, and the support of external news was weak. Recently, the domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and the supply increases. However, the profit of downstream products is at a loss, the economy of some devices is reduced, and the demand is weakened. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to decline in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market fell, and the cost side support of PA6 was still weak this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant has limited changes, which is generally stable below 70%, and it is running sideways this week. In terms of news, the international crude oil was affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and other factors in the early stage, and the decline in price volatility intensified, and the near and far cost side support of PA6 weakened. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of polymerization enterprises is poor. The load of downstream enterprises was flat, but the trading of this week was improved near the weekend. Enterprises prepared goods to hold the spot price, and the low-end offer on the floor was reduced. The purchaser is still cautious in taking goods, and small order purchase just needs to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 is stable this week, caprolactam is also stable, and the cost support of PA6 remains weak. Downstream enterprises have stepped up in taking goods, and bargain hunting has digested part of the low price offer. It is expected that in the short term, the trend of PA6 market may operate in a narrow range in the long short game.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, titanium dioxide prices fell this week. Last week, the average price of titanium dioxide in the four countries was 20450 yuan / ton, and this Thursday, the average price was 20083.33 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.79% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price fell this week. On the whole, the export market is OK. The domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively light, and the market is weak. Downstream demand is poor, traders are more cautious in taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood. Titanium dioxide manufacturers have great inventory pressure, and the ex factory price has been reduced. Up to now, the domestic rutile titanium dioxide factory quotation including tax is between 18500-22000 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17500-18500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region was relatively deadlocked this week. The titanium ore market is acceptable, the market supply is tight, and there are many inquiries. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure and offer firm prices. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1530-1580 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2220-2280 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2400-2450 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate remains strong, and the transaction price of the actual order is negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell this week. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the domestic sulfuric acid market price fell this week, and the quotation was reduced from 998 yuan / ton last Thursday to 970 yuan / ton this Thursday, with a reduction of 2.81%. The upstream sulfur market has fallen sharply recently, and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide, ammonium sulfate market fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for sulfuric acid procurement is general.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts at business news agency believe that the domestic titanium dioxide market price fell this week, the domestic market was cold, and the downstream demand was poor. The price of raw titanium concentrate was relatively deadlocked, the price of sulfuric acid fell, and the cost support was weak. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be dominated by single negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price of toluene rose rapidly in the first ten days of this month, hitting a new high in the year; It began to decline weakly in the middle of the month and rebounded slightly at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 8090 yuan / ton on June 1 and 8860 yuan / ton on June 28, up 9.52% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 53.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the strong trend of crude oil, the price of toluene in the outer market continued to rise in the first ten days of June, domestic toluene exports remained strong, domestic oversupply eased, and prices continued to rise. However, the speculation on the price of toluene in the external market lacked sustainability. Later, with the decline of crude oil and the external market, the market focus turned to domestic demand. The actual domestic demand for toluene was limited, the focus of negotiation weakened, and the price fell weakly.

In the external market, the export arbitrage window was opened, and the volatility fell after the broad rise of toluene in Asia in the external market this month. On June 28, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $1225 / ton, up $125 / ton, or 11.36%.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil continued to fluctuate in a wide range this month. Tight supply and increased demand are expected to support crude oil prices, but the interest rate hikes of central banks across the country led to market concerns about economic recession. As of June 28, Brent fell by $4.86 per barrel, or 3.96%; WTI fell $2.91/barrel, or 2.54%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 16725 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 17700 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.83% over the beginning of the month and 27.64% over the same period last year.

In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose this month. The price was 10200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 10900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 6.86% over the beginning of the month and 67.69% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose rapidly in the first ten days of this month, and fell sharply in the middle of the month. The price was 8980 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9158 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 1.98% from the beginning of the month and 15.63% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended, and the short-term trend of crude oil is still full of uncertainty. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ production increase decision, US crude oil and refined oil inventory dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

Toluene export arbitrage window is still open. It is expected that domestic toluene supply will continue to be tight in July, supporting prices. However, in the future, the impact of exports on prices will be reduced, and the market will focus more on downstream demand. In July, the downstream demand is expected to weaken slightly, but the cost side and supply side support remain, and the toluene price is expected to remain high. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, toluene device dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on toluene price.