Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic ABS market fell in July, and the spot prices of various brands fell by a large margin. As of July 29, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 12050 yuan / ton, up or down -8.37% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the port inventory of styrene fell at the beginning of the month, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. However, affected by macro inflation factors such as international crude oil shocks, market prices fluctuated and fell. The center of gravity of direct upstream pure benzene moved downward, which was difficult to support the styrene market. The fundamentals of supply and demand were weak. Some maintenance devices were restarted, and the market inventory was expected to rise. The transaction of styrene market is poor, so it is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

Acrylonitrile generally maintained a weak operation in July. Although the situation of propylene in the upper and middle reaches of the month has slightly warmed up and received cost support, the market supply side is still loose. In addition to the previous long-term pressure of high start-up rate, although the pressure of enterprises gradually reduced the negative pressure within the month, the consumption of domestic downstream acrylonitrile enterprises was insufficient, so they bought up rather than fell, and the price focus gradually fell, which was difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

In July, the domestic butadiene market experienced a consolidation stage from the beginning of the month to the middle of the month, and the price fell in the middle and late days of the month. The main reasons that affect the market this month are as follows: one is that the market supply side is affected by the maintenance or restart of the devices of major production enterprises; the other is the impact of the final decline of the fluctuation of the external market. The most important impact is that the demand side is weak and the market atmosphere is difficult to improve. Incremental spot supply, low capacity utilization in downstream industries, and limited rigid demand support. Butadiene analysts of business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market may still decline in the short term.

In July, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side showed a poor trend, and ABS cost side support weakened. In the macro aspect, previously, the international crude oil was affected by macro inflation factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and the price volatility intensified, which was bad for the oil chemical industry chain. In terms of industry load, although the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is forced to fall, the industry load is still high. The on-site supply is still abundant, and the decline of industry load has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, especially the main downstream household appliances and other industries lack of output, and the on-site demand is weak. Merchants cut prices and take orders, and the offer follows the market. At the end of the month, midstream traders have certain receiving operations, and some low-end ex factory offers have been consumed, temporarily raising the spot price.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell in July, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market on the floor dominates the market, and some bargain hunting operations have a certain support for the market. It is expected that the ABS spot market will mainly operate in a volatile manner in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of TDI was 17625 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 15850 yuan / ton. During the month, it was reduced by 1775 yuan / ton, with an overall decrease of 10.07%. As of July 31, the domestic goods with tickets are about 15200-15500 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai goods with tickets are about 15500-16000 yuan / ton.

In July, the TDI market continued to be weak, and prices fell continuously during the month. In the first half of the month, the market fell by a narrow margin, the downstream terminals were in the traditional off-season, the demand was weak, the shippers negotiated to ship at a profit, the spot goods in the factory were tight, the market mentality gave some support, and the market focus moved down slightly; In the second half of the month, the TDI market fell broadly, mainly due to the downturn in the terminal industry, weak domestic and foreign trade demand, coupled with market news that the TDI devices of Shanghai factory have been restarted one after another, the incremental inventory of goods in the field is expected, the supply support is weakened, the cargo holders actively sell goods at a profit, and the focus of trading and investment continues to move downward.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated downward. On July 31, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, down 1260 yuan / ton from 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with an overall decline of 14.16%. Crude oil fell broadly this month, toluene in Asia fell deeply, external news support was weak, the domestic downstream market of toluene was weak, demand follow-up was insufficient, trading on the floor was light, and under the influence of multiple bad news, toluene prices fell broadly.

TDI datagrapher of business agency analyzed that at present, the domestic TDI market is in a game of supply and demand. The supply of supplier factories is stable, and the offer of cargo holders is temporarily stable. Although the downstream demand has not been improved, the market just needs to buy more than before. The operators are cautious and wait-and-see, and the short-term TDI market is low.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline this week. On July 29, the average market price in East China was 15850 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.37% compared with the price of 16750 yuan / ton on July 23, and a decrease of 10.07% compared with the beginning of the month.

During the week, the TDI market continued to decline weakly, the downstream terminal industry was depressed, the domestic and foreign trade demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market purchasing was not good. During the week, the TDI devices of Shanghai factories were restarted one after another, the increment of on-site inventory was expected, the supply support was weakened, the cargo holders were actively shipping, the focus of trading was constantly moving downward, the on-site trading atmosphere was weak, and the market was weak. Dealers follow the market and offer lower prices. As of the 29th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 15200-15500 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 15500-16000 yuan / ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation.

The upstream toluene market was weak and consolidated, and the price trend in the week fell first and then stabilized. As of July 29, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7640 yuan / ton, down 14.16% from the beginning of the month. The crude oil market rose slightly, supporting the rise of toluene in the outer market. However, in terms of downstream demand, most domestic downstream plants were in a state of shutdown, and domestic demand was not followed up smoothly, giving limited market support. The toluene market was on the sidelines during the week.

TDI datagrapher of business agency analyzed that the trading atmosphere in the domestic TDI market was quiet, the support of suppliers was weakened, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the supply and demand performance was deadlocked. A small number of Companies in the market just needed to follow up. The support for TDI was limited, the mentality of the industry was poor, and the sentiment of buying up or not buying down was strong. It was expected that the aftermarket of TDI would continue to operate weakly. Specific attention should also be paid to the downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply in July. As of the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7975 yuan / ton, down 7.0% from the price of 8575 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 20.83% year-on-year. The market price of phthalic anhydride fell in July, and the phthalic anhydride market was generally sold.

In July, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the yard was general, and the price of upstream raw material orthobenzene fell, which affected the price of phthalic anhydride to fall. In addition, the plasticizer market continues to decline, negative factors affect the phthalic anhydride market, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride has fallen. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of upstream adjacent benzene fell in July. Affected by this, the phthalic anhydride market fell. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of the adjacent method source negotiation in East China is 7800-8000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 7700-7900 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8000-8100 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride in the field is still there, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The decline in field costs has affected the sharp decline in the market price of phthalic anhydride.

In July, the price of domestic orthobenzene fell, and the on-site price at the end of the month was 8300 yuan / ton, down 5.68% from 8800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The decline of domestic orthobenzene price is a big bad news in the phthalic anhydride market. In July, the price of imported orthobenzene in the port area fell, and the external quotation of orthobenzene fell. Recently, the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area was general, and the external quotation of orthobenzene fell mainly. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, and the actual order was discussed in detail, The price of raw material o-benzene fell, which was bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride fell back.

In July, the downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply. According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic DOP price was 8875 yuan / ton by the end of the month, with a sharp decline of 7.07%. The cost of DOP raw materials in the field declined, DOP enterprises started normal, DOP supply was sufficient, the downstream market trend declined, downstream demand was poor, and market transactions were poor. The plasticizer DOP market fell sharply, and the transaction price was subject to the real-time price. The DOP price was 8800-9000 yuan / ton, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market fell due to the impact.

On the whole, the market of plasticizers has fallen sharply, and most devices of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operate stably. However, the market price of ortho benzene has a downward trend recently, and the downstream plasticizer demand is poor. On the whole, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will decline in the later period.

This week, the domestic propane market price continued to be weak, and the Shandong market continued to fall, with a conspicuous range. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5963.25 yuan / ton on July 17 and 5793.25 yuan / ton on July 25, with a decrease of 2.85% during the week and an increase of 21.82% over the same period last year.

As of July 25, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, July 25

South China. 5700-5800 yuan / ton

North China. 5800-5900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 5700-5900 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5900-6100 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic propane market continued to be weak, and Shandong propane market fell significantly. Although the international crude oil market price rose first and then fell during the week, it brought phased support to the market. However, due to the weak market demand, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. At present, the supply in Shandong market is sufficient, and most of the factory quotations are reduced to stimulate the downstream to enter the market and relieve the inventory pressure.

Saudi Aramco announced in July 2022 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was $725 / ton, down $25 / ton from the previous month; Butane was $725 / ton, down $25 / ton from the previous month.

At present, the overall price of propane in Shandong market is weak, and the quotation mostly falls below 6000 yuan / ton. The supply of Shandong market is relatively abundant, and the downstream replenishment is on demand, and the market demand is limited. In terms of cost, the international crude oil market has returned to weakness, which has brought limited support to the market. It is expected that the propane market may still fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 8000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.51%. On July 24, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.81% from the highest point 105.58 in the cycle (2021-09-16), and up 10.50% from the lowest point 35.53 on December 11, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 7500 yuan / ton, which fell 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde made an ex factory quotation of 8000 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun Luxi isobutyraldehyde offered 8500 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde, propylene market fell slightly this week, and the price fell from 7634.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7340.60 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.85%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 11200.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 11066.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.19%. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late July may fall slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts at business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may decline slightly.

DBP prices rebounded and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, DBP prices rebounded and rose this week, and the overall DBP market rose. As of July 25, the price of DBP was 9083.33 yuan / ton, up 3.61% from 8766.67 yuan / ton on July 17 last weekend. DBP prices rebounded and rose, and the DBP market recovered.

The price of n-butanol surged this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of n-butanol rose violently this week, and the market of n-butanol rebounded and adjusted. On July 25, the price of n-butanol was 8033.33 yuan / ton, up 5.70% from 7600 yuan / ton on July 13 last weekend. N-butanol rebounded and rose, and the cost of DBP rose, which increased the momentum of DBP rise this week. The demand for n-butanol was weak, and the price of n-butanol stopped rising and fell. In the future, the downward pressure of n-butanol increased, and the upward momentum weakened.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell violently this week

According to the price monitoring of business club, the price of phthalic anhydride fell violently this week, and the weakness of phthalic anhydride market remained. As of July 25, the price of phthalic anhydride was 7975 yuan / ton, down 1.85% from 8125 yuan / ton on July 17 last weekend. The cost of phthalic anhydride fell, the market of phthalic anhydride was weak, the cost of DBP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DBP remained.

Aftermarket expectations

Analysts of DBP data of business agency believe that in terms of raw materials, the price of n-butanol rebounded and rose, while the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline. This week, the cost of plasticizer DBP stopped falling and rose, and the price of DBP rose. In the future, the price of n-butanol stopped rising and fell, and the low cost of DBP demand fell. It is expected that the price of DBP will be adjusted weakly.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline fell this week, according to the data on the bulk list of business society. On July 15, the price in Shandong was 11800-12100 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12100-12500 yuan / ton; On July 22, the price in Shandong was 11200-11430 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11800-12000 yuan / ton, down 3.97% from last week and up 12.01% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: the shipment of pure benzene is tight, and the pure benzene in East China port has maintained de stocking. This week, the inventory in East China port has decreased by 20000 tons compared with last week. The port has a good enthusiasm for picking up goods, and the downstream air filling at the end of the month is OK, and pure benzene rebounded slightly this week. However, the market expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in August, and poor negotiations on pure benzene in the far month limit the increase. On Friday (July 22), the price of pure benzene was 8800-9150 yuan / ton (the average price was 9026 yuan / ton), an increase of 0.19% over last week and 10.07% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: this week, domestic nitric acid continued its decline last week. On July 15, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2833 yuan / ton, and on July 22, the price was 2783 yuan / ton, which was 1.76% lower than last week and 13.61% higher than the same period last year.

Aniline supply increased slightly this week, but the downstream only maintained rigid demand follow-up, superimposed with weak cost support, aniline enterprises’ mentality of shipping, and prices fell.

3、 Aftermarket expectations

In terms of cost, in terms of pure benzene, the short-term supply of pure benzene is tight, and the port is expected to be dominated by destocking, but the market is expected to ease the tight supply of pure benzene in August. Overall, the downward pressure of pure benzene increased. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

In terms of nitric acid, the raw material market continues to be weak, and the delivery of nitric acid is flat. It is expected that the price of nitric acid may be dominated by weak operation.

It is expected that the operating rate of aniline plant will continue to rise next week, with increased supply but poor demand. Under the pressure of supply and demand, aniline may continue to fall. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 21st, the average nickel market price is now quoted at 182750 yuan / ton, up 3.27% from the previous trading day and 31.93% year-on-year. The nickel price continued to rebound at a low level.

Some time ago, affected by macro factors and relatively weak nickel fundamentals, nickel prices fell sharply. The macro pressure weakened this week, the US dollar index fell from a high level, and the nonferrous metals sector as a whole stabilized and rebounded. The main reason for the sharp rebound of nickel price is that the early decline was too large, and the rhythm exceeded expectations. The rebound is also a repair to the early oversold.

From the perspective of fundamentals, the current balance of nickel supply and demand tends to be surplus. The prices of upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain, including nickel ore, ferronickel and stainless steel, continue to move downward, while ferronickel and stainless steel plants are in the trend of loss, as can be seen from the weak terminal demand. The demand of downstream new energy enterprises is steadily recovering. The downstream stainless steel plant has continued to reduce production, and the overall strong supply and weak demand have put pressure on the nickel price. However, LME inventory is still low, supporting nickel prices.

Prediction: the domestic ferronickel plants are in a strong mood of loss reduction and price support, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are improving, and the low inventory is superimposed to support electrolytic nickel. It is expected that the nickel price will rebound and repair in the short term, and the price is mainly strong and volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1463 yuan / ton on July 11, and 1353 yuan / ton on July 15. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 7.52% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate fell sharply this week. At present, there is a strong bearish mood in the ammonium sulfate Market, and the market trend is weak. The demand for international exports decreased, and domestic transactions were average. Urea prices fell sharply again this week, which is bad for the market of ammonium sulfate. The mentality of the industry is unstable, and the downstream is mainly on-demand procurement. As of July 15, coking grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1280 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong is 1340-1440 yuan / ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market was weak, and the price was mainly downward. The prices of urea and monoammonium phosphate, the raw materials of compound fertilizer, have been lowered, and the cost support of compound fertilizer is insufficient. At present, most compound fertilizer enterprises still suspend quotation, and new orders are limited.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business agency believes that the recent trend of ammonium sulfate market continues to fall, and there are no positive factors in the market for the time being. The rapid decline of urea price and insufficient terminal demand have led to the reduction of ammonium sulfate price. It is expected that the market of ammonium sulfate will continue to decline in the short term.