Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the vitamin market remained weak this week, and downstream entry enthusiasm remained weak, resulting in a weak supply-demand situation in the market.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the vitamin C market has been operating steadily this week, with mainstream feed grade vitamin C prices ranging from 18 to 19 yuan/kg and European market vitamin C prices ranging from 2.25 to 2.40 euros/kg. Recently, there has been a slight increase in the corn market, but the magnitude is limited, and the boost to the vitamin market is limited. The overall market trend is mostly in line with the market, with no obvious positive support and weak operation.

This week, the price of vitamin A has slightly declined, with the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market being 74-76 yuan/kg and the European market quoting 15.5-22 euros/kg. The vitamin A market has stable trading, but due to the extended maintenance of foreign vitamin A factories, the market production and sales have been weak.

This week, the price of vitamin E has declined at a low level, with the current mainstream VE market quotation ranging from 63 to 65 yuan/ton. The European market quotation is 6.65-6.95 euros per kilogram. Some large domestic factories are in the maintenance period and have suspended their quotations. Manufacturers rarely provide quotations, while traders follow the market and negotiate mainly.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believe that some vitamins are still in a sluggish stage, with small and single transactions on the market, lacking upward momentum. They will closely monitor the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of November 21, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4725 yuan/ton. Recently, DMF prices have remained stable and strong, with prices rising by 1.34% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Recently, the overall market price of DMF has shown an upward trend, with a price increase of 1.34% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the upstream methanol trend is weak, with weak support for the DMF cost side. Methanol has shown a downward trend this week, lacking positive support. The downstream procurement atmosphere is still good, and procurement is positive. Currently, manufacturers have smooth shipments, and they have given up profits and taken orders. However, the momentum for the later rise is insufficient, mainly focusing on stable operation.

Chemical Index: On November 20th, the chemical index stood at 867 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.07% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

3、 Future Market Forecast

DMF analysts from Business Society believe that the trend of upstream methanol is weak, with insufficient support on the cost side. The downstream procurement atmosphere is average, with on-demand replenishment being the main focus. DMF lacks momentum for later growth and mainly maintains stable operation.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices were weak and downward this week. On November 19th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 10100 yuan/ton

Cost side: This week, the price trend of coal tar has declined, and downstream deep processing products have suffered severe losses. The operating rate of enterprises has significantly declined, and the sluggish situation of deep processing products is difficult to change. The coal tar market is difficult to find favorable results. Downstream product prices of coal tar have all experienced varying degrees of decline. In some regions, there has been a situation where the prices of coal tar and raw coal tar are inverted. The willingness to purchase raw coal tar is relatively negative, and there is a strong bearish atmosphere on the market. As of now, the domestic price of coal tar in the market is 4350 yuan/ton. The trend of the coal tar market is relatively pessimistic, and support for the cost side of carbon black is weakened. It is expected that the price of coal tar will be weak in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises have maintained normal operating levels, and since October this year, the carbon black market prices have remained high. Despite the good consolidation and profitability of the carbon black industry, carbon black enterprises have less equipment maintenance and high enthusiasm for operating. In October, carbon black production reached a historic high, and there is sufficient supply of carbon black goods on the market.

In terms of terminals, the downstream tire and rubber industry’s domestic market demand is weak and flat, and most enterprises still have stock, mainly replenishing a small amount of raw material carbon black. Affected by the market’s tendency to buy up rather than down, the acceptance of carbon black is relatively negative, and the market has a strong bearish atmosphere. Inquiries into the market are mainly focused on price suppression, while the demand side remains in high demand.

Overall, the current carbon black market is operating in a weak and volatile manner, with downstream tire companies maintaining just in demand for goods, and the raw material end continues to weaken with moderate support. The bearish factors on the market are dominant, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate weakly in the short term. The future trend will focus on downstream demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of November 17th, the spot nickel quotation was 136733.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 32.44%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 10 times and risen 1 time, and the recent decline in nickel prices is still unstoppable.

On the macro level, the Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve stated that if necessary, more measures will be taken on interest rates, without discussing interest rate cuts; The Chairman of the Chicago Fed stated that the primary task of changing interest rates is to address inflation progress; The Chairman of the Dallas Fed stated that inflation is still too high. China’s exports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year in October, while imports increased by 3%. The PPI of the Eurozone decreased by 12.4% year-on-year in September.

In terms of supply: In October 2023, the national refined nickel production reached a total of 24000 tons, an increase of 8.9% month on month and 55.7% year on year. It is expected that the national refined nickel production will reach 24000 tons in November 2023, which is the same as the refined nickel production in October.

In terms of demand: Alloys are the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for alloys such as military and shipbuilding, while civilian alloys are not good. The demand for electroplating has remained relatively stable. Stainless steel inventory is on the high side, and the scope of production reduction by steel mills in October has expanded.

In terms of imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined nickel imports in September were 5542.97 tons, a decrease of 19% month on month and 42% year-on-year. Russia is the top supplier, importing 2909 tons from Russia that month, a decrease of 14.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. From January to September this year, a total of 69984 tons of refined nickel were imported, a decrease of 39.5% compared to the same period last year.

In summary, nickel prices continue to be under pressure due to factors such as oversupply, sluggish demand, and loose costs for electrowinning nickel. Refined nickel production continues to be released, inventory continues to accumulate, and excess pressure is becoming increasingly prominent. As stainless steel plants continue to reduce production in November, demand for nickel is weakening. The cost of electrowinning nickel has loosened due to the expected increase in intermediate supply. Overall, the pattern of nickel basic supply exceeding demand is relatively clear. It is expected that the short-term nickel price will continue to fluctuate and operate weakly.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the acrylonitrile market has risen. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9937 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.92% from 9562 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile in the market is between 9800 to 10100 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly, and the cost continued to support acrylonitrile; The construction of major downstream ABS continues to rise slightly; The start of the acrylonitrile plant fluctuated slightly, and there was basically no pressure on the supply and demand side. The acrylonitrile market just needed inquiry support, and prices rose.

Recently (11.1-11.13), domestic acrylonitrile plants have been shut down and restarted simultaneously, and the overall operation of acrylonitrile has shown a small amplitude dynamic trend.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the raw material propylene market has experienced slight fluctuations and has risen slightly, with support for the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 13th, the domestic propylene price was 7203 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.16% from 7050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The low point during the cycle was 6958 yuan/ton, and the high point was 7370 yuan/ton.

It is understood that as of early November, downstream ABS production has slightly increased to around 80%, which has improved its support for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; The mainstream acrylic fiber factories have gradually reduced production and undergone minor repairs, resulting in a slight weakening of demand for acrylonitrile; The Nandi unit of nitrile rubber is planned to restart in the near future, and the demand for acrylonitrile is expected to increase slightly; The construction of polyacrylamide and other materials has been basically stable. Overall, the current demand support for acrylonitrile has slightly improved compared to the previous period.

Future Market Forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acrylonitrile is stable and fluctuates slightly; The demand side has slightly improved compared to the previous period. Recently, the international crude oil price has fluctuated and the raw material propylene price has fluctuated and consolidated. Overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the market for dichloromethane has been weak and fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.30% from 2575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest point in the cycle was 2610 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol is weak and slightly higher, the price of liquid chlorine is higher, and the cost center of dichloromethane is slightly higher; Downstream and terminal customers are cautious in their purchases. The general inventory pressure for enterprise shipments has accumulated slightly, and the factory price of dichloromethane has been lowered. As of November 13th, the factory price of mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong region is around 2460-2550 yuan/ton.

In the near future (11.1-11.13), the domestic production of methane chloride has remained around 6.1%, and a plant in Shandong Province is planning to restart its operation.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the raw material methanol has slightly increased, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased, and the cost support for dichloromethane has strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the spot price of methanol was 2465 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65% from the 2425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of November 13th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has been sorted out around 600 yuan/ton.

The domestic production of methane chloride is at a low level around 6.1%. Although the factory price of dichloromethane has recently decreased, downstream inquiries are few, and terminals are cautious in picking up goods. The overall transaction atmosphere in the market is still weak, and the shipping situation of enterprises has not significantly improved, and there is still a small accumulation of inventory in enterprises.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst of Business Society, there is still pressure on inventory of dichloromethane enterprises, and the demand side is still weak, which has a relatively short impact on the dichloromethane market. However, the rise in raw material prices has cost support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that the dichloromethane market will narrow in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose this week (11.6-11.10). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week is 7090 yuan/ton, and the average price on the weekend is 7270 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.54% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.82%.

As of November 10th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 10th

Shandong region/ 7250-7300 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 6900-7000 yuan/ton

East China region/ 7050-7100 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and Review

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the propylene market rose first and then declined this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the improvement of downstream polypropylene market, the price difference between propylene and it widened, driving downstream active entry into the market. At the same time, some upstream devices were shut down, resulting in a decrease in supply, and the propylene market was actively pushing up. In the second half of the week, the price of propylene has risen to a high level, and there is a resistance mentality in the downstream. The wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, while the upstream is mainly to stimulate sales and reduce prices to eliminate inventory.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that there are start-up plans for devices in the future region, and supply is expected to increase. The demand side is following up slowly, and under the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down, it is expected that the propylene market will mainly decline in a narrow range next week.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the price of aluminum fluoride on November 1st, which was 11575 yuan/ton. Costs have decreased, demand support has decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell in November.

Fluctuation and decline in fluorite prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the price of fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% compared to the price of fluorite on November 1st, which was 3750 yuan/ton. The construction of fluorite mines has been poor, and the supply of fluorite mines remains tight. Downstream demand is poor, and fluorite prices have slightly decreased. The high price of fluorite has fallen, cost support has weakened, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased.

The price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11183.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 11433.33 yuan/ton on October 31st. Refrigerant enterprises are operating at a low level, and hydrofluoric acid is purchased on demand. The price of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, and the market for hydrofluoric acid has declined. The price of hydrofluoric acid has fluctuated and fallen, and cost support has weakened. The downward pressure on aluminum fluoride still exists.

Yunnan Province faces power restrictions, resulting in a decrease in the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises

Under the influence of seasonal water inflow differences, in recent years, Yunnan, a major hydroelectric province, has almost normalized the phased power restrictions and production reductions for industrial power users in the region. After entering November, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers have gradually reduced their operating capacity in the Yunnan region. This winter, the production restriction curtain will begin, and the current round of electrolytic aluminum production reduction in the Yunnan region is expected to continue until May 2024, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a second round of power restriction and production reduction. It is expected that the impact on the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum will reach millions of tons. The reduction in production of electrolytic aluminum has led to a decrease in demand for the raw material aluminum fluoride, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that in November, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite continued to decline slightly at the end of October, and the cost of fluoride aluminum decreased; Due to power restrictions in Yunnan, the production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to significantly decrease, and the demand for aluminum fluoride has significantly decreased. The downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased. Overall, the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased, and demand is weak. The downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will weaken due to future fluctuations.

The focus of the domestic MIBK market is declining. According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quoted 15600-15800 yuan/ton on November 3rd, a decrease of 7.07% during the week

The MIBK market has seen a broad decline, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China dropping to 15600-15800 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of the MIBK industry is at 65%, and downstream buying and wait-and-see are the main factors in the declining market. The demand for goods is limited, and traders’ enthusiasm for shipping is not high, resulting in a bearish market.

The cost side was bearish, and the domestic acetone market fell broadly during the week. With the concentration of imported goods arriving at the port, inventory increased to 22000 tons, and the market’s spot circulation increased. In addition, at the beginning of the month, downstream large factories mainly consumed contract volume, with little intention of restocking in the market. Traders were under pressure to sell at low prices. During the week, Sinopec lowered the listing prices of factories in East China and North China, boosting the market’s decline, As of the morning of November 6th, the listing price of Lihua Yiwei Yuan acetone continued to be lowered by 100 yuan/ton to execute 6700 yuan/ton. The mainstream reference price in East China is around 6500 yuan/ton, and the national acetone market fell by an average of 6.57% during the week, with acetone in East China dropping by 9%.

From a terminal perspective, the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. As the market enters the off-season, the operating rate of the downstream antioxidant industry has declined, and the overall demand for raw materials is relatively low. The market’s bearish mentality has increased. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and operate under targeted contracts, resulting in a lack of positive support for the industrial chain.

Business Society predicts that the short-term MIBK market will continue to decline, with traders mainly reducing inventory through profit margins. The market will continue to bottom out in November. Focus on the support from the raw material end.

From October 27 to November 3, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China remained stable for the time being, with prices remaining unchanged at 82500 yuan/ton over the weekend.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony remained stable, with a price of $11550/ton as of November 3rd. It remained stable during the cycle and the market atmosphere was somewhat wait-and-see, with limited impact on market sentiment.

The antimony ingot market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation during the week, with limited factors affecting market supply and demand, and the market remained temporarily stable. In terms of supply, there is still a tight supply at the mining end. Recently, the smelter has been operating steadily, and the supply of antimony ingots is still tight. Manufacturers still have a mentality of being reluctant to sell. In terms of demand, downstream antimony oxide enterprises maintain on-demand procurement and replenish antimony ingots as needed. Currently, the overall market mentality is weak. Overall, the antimony ingot market is still weak in both supply and demand. Without clear news, the spot market will remain temporarily stable in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market has temporarily remained stable, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and average overseas sales performance. Market expectations remain weak, and antimony oxide enterprises maintain a demand for antimony ingots.

On November 2nd, the non-ferrous index stood at 1115 points, an increase of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.50% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 83.69% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).