I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the market was stable, cautious and inventory remained low. This week, the domestic toluene Market slightly fell 0.88.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: compared with last week, this week’s market trend is stable with little change in trading volume. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5700-5750 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume was stable, and the port inventory continued to decline, about 19000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were generally volatile, with Brent up 1.95% at sight, Brent futures up 0.33%, WTI futures up 1.30% and Dubai futures up 0.31%.

On the downstream side, TDI, the domestic TDI market fell in a narrow range this week, and the attitude of the industry tends to be cautious. At present, the quotation of domestic goods with bills is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will be weak in the later period. In the PX market, the domestic PX price trend this week is temporarily stable, while the external market trend is stable. The price is about 768-770 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea and 788-790 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the short-term PX market price will remain around 6800 yuan / ton.

 
III. future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, we will continue to focus on market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next week.

I. price trend

The market price of ammonium sulphate has started to fall since this month, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 1, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 616 yuan / ton, and on November 20, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulfate was 563 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 8.65%. On November 20, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.65% from 106.28 (2012-05-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.62% from 36.65, the lowest point on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: the current market is weak. The domestic demand of domestic ammonium sulphate is weak, and the supply of coking ammonium sulphate is sufficient, mainly in port. So far this month, the overall price of ammonium sulfate in China has been continuously reduced. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is about 500-700 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 520-720 yuan / ton, that in East China is 500-600 yuan, and that in North China is 450-600 yuan.

Industrial chain: in recent years, domestic sulfuric acid enterprises have more early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. The domestic sulfuric acid plants have stable operation, relatively tight market supply, general downstream gas buying, and limited market transactions. Compound fertilizer enterprises are weak and stable. Due to the decline of cost and price, the market of compound fertilizer is not optimistic. The conference on phosphorus and compound fertilizer has come to an end. At present, dealers are waiting for the introduction of winter storage policy.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%). There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulphate of business association believe that at present, the supply of ammonium sulphate market is sufficient, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the transaction situation is not ideal. Winter storage market has not yet opened, and the market is waiting for guidance. It is predicted that in the later stage, there will be a small fluctuation in the range of internal ammonium sulphate, and the main shock finishing of coking ammonium sulphate.

I. price trend

Styrene prices fell this week. According to the data of business agency, the price of sample enterprises on Monday (November 11) was 7450.00 yuan / ton, and that of sample enterprises on Friday (November 15) was 7400.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.67%, 15.71% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products:

This week styrene market price narrow range finishing, market supply is good. On November 11, the styrene in East China closed at 7450-7500 yuan / ton, and on November 15, the styrene in East China closed at 7350-7450 yuan / ton, down about 50-100 yuan / ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s export price. On November 11, South China styrene closed at 7700 yuan / ton, and on November 15, South China styrene closed at 7550-7600 yuan / ton, down by 100-150 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of the above factories. The styrene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. By Friday, the styrene port inventory in East China fell, but the overall styrene supply in the field increased slightly. On the whole, the week was steady.

Industrial chain:

The upstream crude oil market was slightly lower this week, down 0.22%, ethylene was up 1.75%, pure benzene was slightly lower 0.19%, and styrene production cost support was weak. On the downstream side, EPS fell slightly by 0.67% and PS rose sharply by 2.54%. In terms of overall operating rate, downstream enterprises still maintain low demand. The deadlock between supply and demand is hard to break, and the market lacks strong support. Styrene production enterprises still maintain a certain profit margin, but the space is narrowed. With the expected arrival of the production of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli petrochemical, as well as the gradual increase of styrene imports to the port in the middle and late November, the port delivery is expected to be less than the arrival volume. Based on the expectations of many parties, the whole industrial chain is short of strong and long empty.

III. future

This week, the international oil price and energy continued to fall. Domestic enterprises stepped up inventory removal, and the trading was flat. It is expected that styrene will mainly settle the market at a low level next week.

I. price trend

This week’s domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market slightly pushed up, with the average price of 3876.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3890 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.34% in the week, 12.9% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic LNG narrow range adjustment, the market trading atmosphere improved. As of November 15. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3840 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3750 yuan / ton The price of LPG produced from Luoyang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market rose steadily, with no obvious fluctuation. The recovery of liquefied gas market has stimulated the mentality of propane downstream replenishment and driven the atmosphere of propane transaction. At the beginning of the week, international crude oil continued to fall. In the face of news that the market continued to be bullish, petrochemical enterprises cut prices, and most manufacturers followed suit. The downstream demand is flat, and the upstream traders mainly deliver goods. Thursday’s slight rise in crude oil boosted the market, but in the north of the heating season, terminal demand did not improve substantially. After the price reduction, the shipment has improved, the inventory pressure has been eased, and the manufacturers have increased slightly.

Industrial chain:

Dimethyl ether: the market price of methyl ether (Henan) continued to fall on Tuesday. The lower reaches are more bearish towards the future market and have no intention to enter the market for the falling market. They are cautious and wait-and-see. At present, there is no obvious improvement in market demand, and the shipment of manufacturers is not smooth. The inventory in Henan Province is increasing gradually, and the mentality is relatively tired. This week, xinlianxin repeatedly implemented the minimum guarantee policy. Most of the manufacturers fell below 3000 yuan / ton. At present, the price has fallen to the cost, and some enterprises’ profits are hanging upside down, reducing production to ease the pressure of sales and inventory.

Propane: this week, the propane market was adjusted, and the trading atmosphere was slightly improved. At the beginning of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously, and the trend of the liquefied gas market was weak. In addition, the intake gas resources were abundant and the price was low, which hit the enthusiasm of the downstream market. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the demand was average. The main enterprises delivered profits and the price fell slightly. Later in the week, with the slight increase of international crude oil and the decrease of propane price, the mentality of downstream replenishment was stimulated. The trading atmosphere was gradually improved. The market rose and fell mutually, and Shandong market recovered after the slight increase.

Saudi Aramco announced in November CP that all of the propanbutane had been increased. Propane rose to $430 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month; butane rose $445 / ton, up $10 / ton from last month. The c.i.f. cost of long-term propane is about 3844 yuan / ton, and butane is about 3916 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are three kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three of which are liquefied natural gas (3.27%), MTBE (1.23%) and liquefied gas (0.34%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with methanol (- 4.10%), petroleum coke (- 3.96%) and dimethyl ether (- 2.98%) as the top three products. This week’s average was – 0.57%.

III. future forecast

Liquefied gas analysts believe that: the current price is relatively low, the downstream mentality has improved, replenishment into the market. The market transaction atmosphere turned warm, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was relieved. Market demand is still expected to increase, the seller’s mentality is strong, and the willingness to decline is not strong. It is expected to stabilize first and then rise next week.

I. price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1683 yuan / ton, while the average weekly price of nitric acid in East China at the weekend was 1650 yuan / ton, down 1.98%.

II. Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid continued to fall, with the quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. of 1600 yuan / ton, which was stable; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. of 1550 yuan / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; Shandong helitai nitric acid Co., Ltd. of 1800 yuan / ton, which was stable. Anhui Audley offered 1580 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton lower than last week’s offer; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offered 1980 yuan / ton, basically stable. Nitric acid market demand is light, manufacturers offer weak.

Industry chain: liquid ammonia, the raw material of the upstream of nitric acid, according to the monitoring of the business association, the price of liquid ammonia this week is mainly weak. For the downstream aniline, the market price of aniline in Shandong on Friday was 7150 yuan / ton, down 10.1% compared with last week; the market price of aniline in Nanjing was 7530 yuan / ton, down 10.4% compared with last week; the domestic TDI market was weak, and the overall atmosphere in the market was still weak, and the volume of transactions was insufficient.

III. future forecast

To sum up, the nitric acid analyst of the business association thinks that the nitric acid market may be dominated by weak operation.

I. price data:

II. Trend analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic coke market is weak and stable this week. At present, the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shanghai is 1830 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Xuzhou is 1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1870 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Weifang, Shandong Province is 1750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province is 1650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton The mainstream price of metallurgical coke is 1700 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province is 1740 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1800 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Shenyang, Liaoning Province is 1770 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1830 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province is 1760 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; Tangshan, Hebei Province The mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke is 1740 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1790 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tianjin is 1750 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of quasi primary metallurgical coke is 1850 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan is 1980 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Liupanshui coke market in Guizhou is 2220 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of secondary metallurgical coke in Ordos coke market The main price of metallurgical coke is 1400 yuan / ton. The port trades about 2000 yuan / ton of primary metallurgical coke, 1900 yuan / ton of quasi primary metallurgical coke and 1800 yuan / ton of secondary metallurgical coke.

Products: the domestic coke market is weak and stable this week. Affected by weather warning in some areas, the operating rate of coke enterprises has declined. However, the overall supply of the market is still relatively abundant. The inventory of some coke enterprises keeps accumulating. Affected by the downturn of intra industry investment, coke enterprises are highly motivated to ship. In the downstream, the steel price is stable and rising. The profit of the steel plant is acceptable. The purchase of the steel plant is still just in demand. After coke Most cities hold a pessimistic attitude. At present, the industry is dominated by wait-and-see mood.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are three kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, the top three of which are liquefied natural gas (3.27%), MTBE (1.23%) and liquefied gas (0.34%). There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with methanol (- 4.10%), petroleum coke (- 3.96%) and dimethyl ether (- 2.98%) as the top three products.

III. future forecast

According to the coke analysts of the business association, at present, the overall turnover of the domestic coke market is relatively soft, and the coke steel market is facing the expectation of limiting production. The steel mills just need to purchase, and the coke enterprises are active in shipping, but the turnover is limited. It has been predicted that the coke market will still operate in a weak position in the near future. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the policy and steel plant inventory.

Trade name: phenol

East China market (November 13): 7150 yuan / ton

Trend chart of domestic phenol Market Price

Phenol Sinopec cut the order by 250 yuan / ton on December 12, and implemented 7300 yuan / ton. Under the pressure of loss of shipment from suppliers on March 13, the intention of low delivery turned weak. The East China market took the lead in pushing up the market, but the price was low. The center of gravity went up in the afternoon. The middlemen inquired cautiously. The downstream just needed to buy, and the overall atmosphere was relatively light. However, in general, the East China market increased by 100 yuan / ton a day. Until the decline of phenol, it is expected that today The domestic phenol market continues to rise cautiously, and the negotiation range of East China phenol Market is 7150-7200 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of phenol in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 7150 + 100

Shandong area 7300

7350 + 100 around Yanshan

South China 7450 0

 
Trade name: acetone

Market price (November 13, East China): 4950 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the acetone market continues to rise. Although there is a port supply, it will take some time to enter the circulation. At present, there is still a small supply of goods in the hands of large customers. The sentiment of the buyer is not abated. The increase of downstream terminal inquiry is followed up one by one. The market is constantly pushing up, and the firm deal is still OK. The business community expects that acetone still has room to rise. Today, we need to pay attention to Sinopec’s offer situation, East China city The negotiation is expected to be more than 5000 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of acetone in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 4950 + 50

Shandong area 4900

Surrounding area of Yanshan: 4800 + 50

5000 + 100 in South China

I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of November 11, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9520 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis, down 10.61% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic BDO market has been reorganized horizontally, and the cost end support is weak. However, the maintenance of some factories is good, the supplier’s attitude of supporting the market continues, the offer is high, the downstream demand is weak, small orders are just needed to make up the position, and the focus of market negotiation fluctuates little.

In terms of market, BDO market in North China has maintained stability, Heci and Meizhouwan units have been overhauled, the factory mentality has been supported, the intention to support the market has continued, the downstream market entry caution has increased, and the focus of on-site transactions has been temporarily stable. The BDO market in East China is stagnant and consolidated, with weak cost support. However, there is no pressure on inventory. The factory is in a strong market mentality, with high quotations and weak downstream demand. Small orders are just needed to make up positions, and the atmosphere for large orders in the market is cold. BDO market in South China has been reorganized at a high level, with stable business mentality, still in a strong market mentality and weak intention of low output. The downstream just needs replenishment, and the small single negotiation in the field is more high-end.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and water rising in Northwest are still serious. The benchmark price of Northwest enterprises such as Inner Mongolia fell to around 1820, but some traders wait and see. Pay attention to the receiving situation of underground tourism enterprises such as Shandong. At present, the decline is not limited. Most enterprises may operate cautiously. Ma continues to explore the bottom, and the mentality of the industry is general. To sum up, China’s methanol market or weak decline in the short term.

Calcium carbide: the market price of calcium carbide in Hebei Province is temporarily stable. At present, the purchase price of the local first-class product calcium carbide is 2970-2980 yuan / ton, the upstream supply is acceptable, the arrival of the enterprise is normal, the purchase enthusiasm is general, there are many presses, the overall analysis shows that the market price of calcium carbide is expected to be narrow.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the manufacturer is willing to support the market, and crane coal overhauls. On the negative side, downstream demand continued to be weak. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will wait to be sorted out and pay attention to the restart of Tianye this month.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2746.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2713.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.21%, down 7.20% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 71.09 on November 8.

II. Trend analysis

(I) products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganeng’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2760 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; Shaanxi coal industry’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2580 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; Neimenggu Zhonglian’s price of calcium carbide at this week was 2770 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week; Ningxia Xingping’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2 yuan / ton 700 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation dropped 50 yuan / ton.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2800 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory price of coke fell slightly this week, from 1633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1616.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.02%, down 36.85% compared with the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was not enough, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price rose from 6637.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6670.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.49%, up 4.33% year on year. PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly, and customers in the lower reaches were more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market rose this week, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was not enough. However, the PVC market in the downstream began to rise, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing calcium carbide increased. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest will rise in the middle of November.

I. price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s domestic bromine market remained stable at a high level, and the average price of bromine in the week remained at around 30833 yuan / ton, down 7.37% from the same period last year.

II. Cause analysis

Product: this week, the supply and demand of bromine market in China is in a dynamic equilibrium state. The enterprise’s operating rate remains at a high level. The downstream market just needs to be stable. The factory quotation of mainstream bromine is between 30500-31000 yuan / ton. As the weather turns cold, some bromine enterprises will enter the winter break period, and the bromine supply will decline to some extent.

Industry chain: the upstream industry of bromine is mostly stable this week: the weak trend of sulfur market falls by 0.94% in the week, the average price of enterprises is about 686 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid is 520-600 yuan / ton; the caustic soda market is stable in the week, at present about 835 yuan / ton; the caustic soda market is stable in the week, at present, the average price is about 1766 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid just needs to be better, and the price is stable in the week, at present 306 yuan / ton About. At present, the downstream flame retardant industry of bromine mainly purchases rigid demand, which has a certain positive support for the price of bromine; the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are under the influence of environmental protection, and the demand side is generally supported.

III. future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the overall supply and demand of bromine market in China is stable, the shipment of enterprises is relatively smooth, and the price of bromine is mainly stable in a short period of time. In the long run, the domestic bromine output will be seasonally reduced, and the decline of the supply end will lead to the price rising trend.