According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 26, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 12450.00 yuan / ton. Recently, the DMF market price has been stable, and there has been no significant change compared with the same period last week.

The price of DMF is mainly stable, and the downstream just needs to purchase. At present, the inventory operates normally and remains stable in the short term. Compared with the same period last week, there is no significant change in the price. The upstream methanol is mainly stable, just needs replenishment, with limited fluctuation, and maintains the early trend in the short term.

DMF analysts of business agency believe that DMF will remain stable in the short term（ For more information on the latest industry chain, welcome to pay attention to official account of business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp commodity price.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine price rose slightly this week, with the price at the beginning of the week being 24666 yuan / ton and the weekend price being 24833 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.68%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, the overall glycine price market has not changed much this week. At present, the mainstream price of industrial glycine is around 25000 yuan / ton. The enterprise resumes quotation, mainly completes the orders of old customers, and can receive new orders. Downstream just need mainly, due to the high price and strong wait-and-see attitude, the transaction of new orders is limited.

Demand: the downstream glyphosate technical price is around 50000 yuan / ton, and the raw materials are acetic acid and glycine. Yellow phosphorus has increased greatly in varying degrees, supported by both cost and demand, and the price still has room to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current glycine supply is sufficient, the demand is supported, and the industry prosperity is high. It is expected that the price of glycine will continue to break through after the horizontal consolidation.

Aluminum fluoride market stabilizes

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride is stable, and the market of aluminum fluoride tends to be stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8500.00 yuan / ton on July 12, which was stable compared with 8500 yuan / ton on July 12 at the beginning of the week, and rebounded up by 0.79% compared with 8433.33 yuan / ton on July 1. Aluminum fluoride market rebound adjustment, the overall aluminum fluoride Market in July strong stabilization.

Electrolytic aluminum price fluctuates and stabilizes

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose in July, the demand of aluminum market rebounded, the export increased year on year, the overseas demand rebounded, the social inventory decreased, the market supply was tight, the state threw and stored aluminum ingots, and the supply tension of aluminum ingots was alleviated to a certain extent. It can be seen from the trend chart of aluminum fluoride industry chain that the upstream market of aluminum fluoride was stable in July, the cost of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable, the downstream aluminum price rose, and the aluminum ingot Market stimulated the price rise of aluminum fluoride.

Market summary and forecast

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts of business news agency believe that: this week, the market of aluminum fluoride is stable, the price of upstream raw materials is stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride is stable, the power of aluminum fluoride rising is limited, the price of downstream aluminum ingots is rising, stimulating the price of aluminum fluoride rising, but the overall demand of aluminum ingots is stable, and aluminum fluoride does not continue to rise. Generally speaking, the aluminum fluoride market is not strong enough, and the downward pressure is limited, so the aluminum fluoride market will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on July 19 was 5383.33 yuan / ton, up 9.43% from last Monday, up 6.39% on a month on month basis, and up 32.07% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Last week, affected by the power rationing in Yunnan, the price of yellow phosphorus rose to 25000 yuan / ton again, and reached 30000 yuan on the 19th. The market price of phosphoric acid rose with it, breaking through the 7000 yuan / ton mark again, with the highest price of 7500 yuan / ton, a sword index of 8000 yuan. At present, the start-up of phosphoric acid enterprises is acceptable, some of them may have tight supply, and some of them have not yet bid for the main supply orders. Therefore, it is prudent to wait and see. With the increase of cost support, the price of phosphoric acid may rise further. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the quotation in Sichuan is about 5750-7000 yuan / ton, in Hebei is about 5600-6900 yuan / ton, in Hubei is about 6500 yuan / ton, in Tianjin is about 6400-7500 yuan / ton, in Jiangsu is about 6000-6850 yuan / ton, in Shandong is about 6000-6400 yuan / ton, and the price of phosphoric acid in various places is generally rising.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 19, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphate ore in mainstream areas in China was around 550 yuan / ton, which increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 3.77%, compared with July 11 (530 yuan / ton); Compared with the price on June 1 (reference average price of phosphate rock 510 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 40 yuan / ton, or 7.84%. At present, China’s phosphorus ore market is running at a high level. The supply of mines in Guizhou is tight, and the phosphate rock industry expects that the price of phosphate rock will continue to move towards the high end.

Yellow phosphorus. Since July, the price of yellow phosphorus has been in a high consolidation stage. Recently, affected by the power rationing in Yunnan, the price of yellow phosphorus has risen again. The operating rate of yellow phosphorus has declined, and the spot market is tight. The main manufacturers issue orders in the early stage, and some manufacturers temporarily stop quoting. On July 19, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 27000.00, up 39.53% compared with July 1 (19350.00). Due to the rapid rise in prices, the market more wait-and-see, manufacturers send early orders, new orders are limited.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, at present, the rising raw material prices and the strong cost support have led to the rapid rise of phosphoric acid prices. Most of the operators are cautious and wait-and-see, and are expected to continue to rise in the short term. They also need to pay close attention to the cost changes.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, on July 16, the average price of domestic LNG was 4246.67 yuan / ton, up 3.75% from the beginning of the week, 13.24% from the beginning of the month, 17.71% from the beginning of the month, and 72.4% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG market continued to rise, with an increase of nearly 4% in the week and a year-on-year increase of over 70%. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic LNG was relatively stable, and some liquid plants adjusted slightly. From the middle of the week, the market continued to rise. The price of liquid in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Shandong and other places continued to rise in a large area, and the highest price had risen to 4750 yuan / ton. In the second half of July, the price of feed gas for the direct supply liquid plant of northern PetroChina was 2.22-2.25 yuan / m3, which was higher than that of the previous period. In addition, the overhaul of some liquid plants in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi, and the impact of the power restriction policy, the supply decreased. At the same time, due to the high temperature weather, the power consumption increased, and the support of demand side was acceptable, Help the domestic LNG market rise in off-season. At present, Inner Mongolia is 4080-4260 yuan / ton, Shaanxi is 4200-4500 yuan / ton, Shanxi is 4250-4410 yuan / ton, Ningxia is 4200-4350 yuan / ton, Henan is 4300-4510 yuan / ton, Hebei is 4300-4500 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 4350-4530 yuan / ton, and the price of imported gas is about 4200-5000 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and imported gas are increased to varying degrees.

region Specifications July 16th July 9th Up and down

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4080-4260 3600-3900 + 480/+360

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4200-4500 4000-4200 + 200/+300

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4250-4410 3900-4250 + 350/+160

Ningxia liquified natural gas 4200-4350 3950-4000 + 250/+350

Henan Province liquified natural gas 4300-4510 4230-4450 + 70/+600

Hebei liquified natural gas 4300-4500 4200-4450 100/+50

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4350-4530 4000-4200 + 350/+330

The rise of domestic liquefied natural gas prices has driven downstream products to rise more than fall less

Methanol, Shandong Luzhong area methanol market negotiation is about 2300-2330 yuan / ton, sent to cash, transaction situation is general, more execution contract. In the methanol market of southern Shandong, the negotiation price of some parts increased by 10 yuan / ton to 2450-2460 yuan / ton, and the factory withdrawal spot exchange rate increased. Linyi received the local goods, the negotiation price increased by 10 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton, sent to cash, logistics goods offer price is not available. The transaction price of methanol market in North Central Shandong Province is 2300-2320 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange. The transaction is relatively stable, and there is no obvious fluctuation for the time being.

Liquid ammonia. On the 15th, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. Today, the amount of ammonia in the region is moderate, and the enterprises are shipping normally. At present, the inventory is normal. Today, the prices of some large factories in Shandong are rising, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price in this area is 4350-4550 yuan / ton. At present, the liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturers in this area is moderate, and the price is expected to be firm in the near future.

Urea: on July 15, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas rose slightly recently, and the cost support was strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, but the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber sheet factory and melamine enterprise started well, and most of them were purchased and used at any time, and followed up at a proper amount. From the aspect of supply: in the near future, the urea plant maintenance is still the same, the start-up recovery is slow, the daily output is still less than 160000 tons, the supply side is tight, and the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also maintained at a low position. International: on the evening of July 13, India issued a new round of import bidding, which boosted the domestic market mentality. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is weakened, and urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analysts of business news agency believe that: in the second half of July, the price of gas source rose, the cost support was strengthened, and the supply was reduced due to the maintenance of some liquid plants and the impact of power restriction policy. In addition, under the high temperature, the demand for electricity was increased, and many favorable factors were superimposed. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the statistics of business news agency, as of July 16, the price of DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu was 20360 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week’s price and increased by 700 yuan / ton compared with the end of June; The price of nylon POY was 17950 yuan / ton, the same as last week’s price, up 825 yuan / ton from the end of June; The price of nylon FDY was 20933 yuan / ton, the same as last week’s price, up 933 yuan / ton from the end of June. From the perspective of price trend, the current price of nylon is at a high level. In early July, the nylon market ushered in the first rise, which was mainly driven by the cost of upstream raw materials. The whole nylon market rose. This week, the price of nylon was stable, and the upstream and downstream parties held a cautious attitude towards the future market.

Nylon price chart

Upstream market analysis

The cost of upstream raw material cyclohexanone is weakening, the demand is weak, and the market price falls after rising. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of July 15, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 10580 yuan / ton, down from last week. The overall construction started at a low level, and the downstream demand was light.

Cyclohexanone price chart

In early July, the market of raw material PA6 had a positive trend, and the spot price generally rose. As of July 15, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprises to CNMC was about 15000 yuan / ton, up 2.97% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and 23.29% compared with the same period last year. At present, the overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is about 60%, and the supply side is good for conventional spinning and chip products. Among them, nylon filament load 80% is relatively high, and the benefit is not obvious. The raw material caprolactam was stronger at the beginning of the month, the cost support of PA6 was strengthened, and the price rose with the upstream. However, the acceptance of downstream nylon for high price goods is poor, and the floor trading is still dominated by contracts. Terminal factory purchase operation is cautious, just need to replenish with take. Overall, the current market of PA6 is short, and it is expected that the spot price of PA6 will be deadlocked in the near future.

Downstream market demand

The demand of downstream terminal areas of nylon is still flat, and some customers take goods on demand. Some customers make up for their positions slightly at low prices in the early stage, and their enthusiasm for taking goods is not good; In addition, the terminal field is still in the traditional off-season. Recently, the prices of polyester, spandex and nylon filament continue to rise. Downstream customers say that they are under great pressure and cash flow is difficult, so they dare not stock more. The overall market continues to focus on just need buying, and all parties hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

According to a number of nylon manufacturers, the downstream demand for nylon is not high, most downstream enterprises maintain normal just need to take goods, mainly small orders, weak market transactions, basically in a situation of no market price, sufficient supply of goods on the floor, increased inventory, some manufacturers start to adjust, upstream and downstream parties are cautious about the future market.

Future forecast

Nylon terminal demand has not improved significantly, most of the downstream enterprises keep normal, just need to take goods, order support is limited; However, the cost support is strong. This week, the price of nylon is stable, the market demand is weak, and the manufacturers are willing to support the price. With the price of upstream raw materials falling, it is expected that the nylon market will go down in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: on July 13, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate was slightly higher as a whole. On July 13, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86800 yuan / ton, which was 0.23% higher than the previous day (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 86600 yuan / ton on July 12). On July 13, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90600 yuan / ton, which was 0.22% higher than the previous day (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90400 yuan / ton on July 12). On the 13th, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was around 82000-90000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market was around 85000-92000 yuan / ton.

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate stabilized for a week in July, and then slightly boosted on the 13th. At present, the market demand is stable, and most lithium carbonate manufacturers are actively shipping. Lithium carbonate is mainly used to prepare LiFePO4 and common ternary cathode materials, which can be extracted from salt lake or mica. As the supply of salt lakes is affected by seasonal factors, the output of salt lakes in Qinghai will be relatively reduced after the third quarter, which will boost the price of lithium carbonate.

The price of downstream domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide also showed an upward trend. Due to the relatively rigid supply of spodumene, the production of lithium hydroxide has been obviously restricted by the shortage of spodumene, and the price showed an upward trend. On the other hand, the price of LiFePO4 is mainly stable, the supply side is normal, the market of LiFePO4 will maintain stable operation in the short term, and the number of new orders is limited.

On July 13, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 221.15, up 0.51 points from yesterday, down 45.41% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 124.43% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business news agency, the market demand for lithium carbonate is relatively stable at present. If the output of new energy vehicles continues to increase in the future, it will further support the volume and price of lithium carbonate. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Corn prices continued to decline. Under the pressure of continuous supply of feed wheat, continuous input of import auction, shutdown of deep processing and decline of feed demand on a month on month basis, the overall atmosphere of short-term corn market is still weak, and the cost is low, and the domestic ethanol market is running. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of July 12, the domestic ethanol market price was 6887 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 0.54% and a year-on-year rise of 14.55%.

The domestic ethanol market is weak. In Northeast China, the ethanol industry is in a weak position, and the small factories are in a positive attitude; The price of East China and Shandong is stable, and the quotation of enterprises is stable; The price of ethanol in Anhui Province is down, and the price of enterprises is low; In Henan Province, the price of ethanol has little change; The quotation of ethanol in Dongguan port in South China is weak, and the market transaction is light; The price of ethanol in Zhanjiang is low, and the downstream is purchased on demand; The price in Guangxi is high, the quotation of enterprises is stable, and the downstream demand is insufficient.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of corn prices in July is more obvious. However, the current government level is determined to reduce the price of corn, which will still exert pressure on the price of corn. In the downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is slightly weak. In the early stage, the market price continued the periodic downward trend, and the price of raw material acetic acid fell sharply, the power of ethyl acetate itself was insufficient, the demand side and cost were both bad, and the market was passive and weak in stages.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province General level 6660-6700 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6900-7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7500 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 7000-7050 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6800 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 7600-7650 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region 95% alcohol 6850-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7150 yuan / ton

Guangdong area 95% ethanol About 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Henan Province Top grade 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7550-7650 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol 6950-7100 yuan / ton

Yunnan Province Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6350 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6450 yuan / ton including tax

The price of dry cassava is weak, while the price of corn is weak. The price is weak under the weak downstream demand. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is still slightly weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic glycine price continued to rise this week, with 2333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 24000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.86%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business association, glycine price continued to rise this week, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade. Mainstream factories continue to stop reporting and complete orders from regular customers. It is understood that the latest transaction price in the current market is 25000 yuan / ton, the overall supply of goods in the market is limited, the price is high, and the market attention has increased.

Demand side: due to the reduction of glyphosate production abroad and the peak demand season, the price of glyphosate in the downstream reaches has reached a ten-year high, and the current price is close to 50000 yuan / ton, with strong demand support.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business news agency think that the demand side is good, but the current glycine price is on the high side. Considering the acceptability of downstream, it is expected that the glycine market will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 7, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 530 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on July 1, and increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 3.92%, compared with that on June 1 (510 yuan / ton).

In July, the domestic phosphorus ore market was stable. At present, the supply of phosphate rock mining enterprises is tight, Guizhou and Hubei regions take the initiative to give priority to orders from old customers, and the quotation of mining enterprises is mostly high and wait-and-see. As of July 7, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock factory in Guizhou is around 440-490 yuan / ton, and the phosphate rock market is running smoothly. In Hubei area, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is 500-520 yuan / ton. The market of phosphate ore in Guangxi is stable, and the quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore factory is around 380-430 yuan / ton.

In July, the market price of yellow phosphorus in the downstream was stable, with a slight upward trend. The situation of new orders received in the downstream was acceptable, and the enterprise mentality was relatively stable. At present, the factory started to improve, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan region resumed production one after another. The market price was mainly stable temporarily.

For downstream phosphoric acid, at present, the domestic phosphoric acid market maintains a stable consolidation operation in July, with a small number of enterprises supplying orders from old customers, and the high-end quotations fall sporadically.

In July, after the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply at the end of June, the market price of monoammonium phosphate continues to be high and stable.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

In the near future, with the increase of yellow phosphorus start-up in the downstream of phosphate rock, the demand for raw phosphorus ore will also increase. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the market price of China’s phosphorus ore will continue to maintain a high level.