Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall low price of domestic sodium metabisulfite in November was weak. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite on November 1 was 2533.33 yuan/ton, and the average price on November 29 was 2433.33 yuan/ton, with an overall drop of 3.95% in the month.

Affected by the continuous decline of upstream raw material cost, domestic sodium metabisulfite enterprises lowered the factory price slightly again in November, driving the overall low price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market to operate. In November, the domestic sulfur price picked up slightly. In addition, the overall inventory of the domestic sodium metabisulfite market was relatively low. Although the cost of raw materials was at a low level, the shipment of sodium metabisulfite manufacturers was relatively stable. The old customers just needed to clinch deals, and the overall increase of new orders was limited.

As of November 29, the price of soda ash fell by 0.45% in the month, and the price of sulfur rose significantly by 11.32%. Although the price of sulfur rose by a relatively high margin, there was still a large gap compared with the ultra-high level at the beginning of the year. The cost of upstream raw materials continued to fluctuate at the bottom, and downstream trading entities were cautious in purchasing and selling. The overall price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market in the future recovered and came under pressure.

Future market forecast

According to the analysts of the business community, the prices of some upstream raw materials rose slightly, the overall low price of raw materials fluctuated, the trading entities were cautious in purchasing and selling, the market was long and short, and the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price was in a dilemma in the short term. It was expected that the overall domestic sodium metabisulfite market price in December would fluctuate slightly near 2400.00 yuan/ton.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic urea market price rose slightly this week. The urea price rose from 2772.00 yuan/ton at the weekend to 2790.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.65%, 11.42% year-on-year. On December 4, the urea commodity index was 129.77, unchanged from yesterday, 14.81% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15), and 133.40% higher than the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Increased cost support, general downstream demand, and tight urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China rose this week

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea rose slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell sharply, rising from 4098.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5010.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 22.25%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.55%; The price of anthracite rose slightly. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) rose from 1630 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1710 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 4590.00 yuan/ton last weekend to 4773.33 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 3.99%, 4.22% year-on-year. Upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the price support for urea increased. This week, the price of melamine at the downstream of urea was adjusted at a high level, at 8333.33 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is average, and industrial demand is normal. The operation rate of compound fertilizer plant is high, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is good. The board and melamine enterprises started in general, and just needed to purchase. Downstream has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high priced urea, and procurement slows down. From the aspect of supply: environmental protection inspection in Shanxi has been delayed. Some gas enterprises shut down for maintenance, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Mainly up slightly in the future

The domestic urea market may rise slightly in the first half of December. According to the urea analyst of the business association, the upstream anthracite of urea. The price of liquefied gas rose slightly, and the urea cost support increased. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is normal, the export orders are orderly promoted, and the urea supply is tight. In the future, urea rose mainly in a narrow range.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 2, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference was 8800 yuan/ton, compared with November 28 (the butanone reference price was 8866 yuan/ton), the average price decreased by 66 yuan/ton, or 0.75%. As of December 2, the domestic butanone market price is around 8400-9100 yuan/ton.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the overall domestic butanone market fell slightly. This week, due to transportation and other factors in Wuhan, the overall adjustment of butanone market price was not significant. The butanone market price in Shandong decreased slightly by about 100 yuan/ton, while the focus of the butanone market in Jiangsu decreased by about 200 yuan/ton. The main factors influencing the decline of butanone market come from the following two aspects:

In terms of cost: the cost support for butanone given by the C4 market downturn after the recent raw material ether is loose. After the cost benefit is weakened, the overall market price of butanone is weak and downward.

In terms of demand, the downstream factory started to operate at a low level, the demand for butanone continued to be cold, the demand support was insufficient, and the overall butanone market was dominated by downward movement.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the support for butanone from both the raw material side and the demand side is relatively loose. The relatively effective support for butanone in the market generally comes from the relatively controllable inventory at the supply side, but there is no demand as an effective support, and the road to a strong market is still difficult. Butanone data experts from the business community believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market tends to be narrow and weak, mainly adjusting the operation, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the acetic acid market was weak in November. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 3442.50 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 3282.50 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.65% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 5086%.

As of the end of the month, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China in November are as follows:

Region./November 1./November 15./November 30

South China./3400 yuan/ton./3200 yuan/ton./3200 yuan/ton

North China./3300 yuan/ton./3250 yuan/ton./3100 yuan/ton

Shandong./3250 yuan/ton./3250 yuan/ton./3175 yuan/ton

Jiangsu region./3150 yuan/ton./3000 yuan/ton./3050 yuan/ton

Zhejiang Province./3250 yuan/ton./3100 yuan/ton./3150 yuan/ton

In November, the acetic acid market was weak and declined. In the first ten days, the market was basically stable. The price of raw methanol was low, and the cost support was insufficient. Although there was equipment maintenance in the acetic acid market, the downstream demand was low, and the market was not boosted enough, and the acetic acid enterprises’ quotations were temporarily stable; In the middle of the year, the operating rate of acetic acid in the market rose, the inventory of enterprises accumulated, downstream demand was weak, and the price trend of acetic acid fell continuously; The market range fluctuated in the last ten days, and the downstream demand was still sluggish. During this period, some enterprises actively shipped, the inventory pressure eased, and the price of acetic acid rose briefly. However, the overall buyer dominated the market, and the acetic acid market was weak.

The methanol market at the feedstock end was in a wide swing. As of the 30th, the average price in the domestic market was 2768.33 yuan/ton, a 2.39% drop compared with the price of 2836.00 yuan/ton on November 1. The price of methanol raw material natural gas continues to fall, methanol cost support is weakened, while downstream construction is low, procurement is limited, and the atmosphere of market negotiation is weak. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited, enterprise inventories are increased, and methanol prices are reduced by shocks.

The downstream ethyl acetate market was weak in November, and the quotation at the end of the month was 3766.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.64% compared with 6950.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material acetic acid market is weak, the cost support is weak, the downstream side continues to follow up on demand, the enterprise is not enthusiastic about getting goods, the benefits of ethyl acetate are insufficient, the market mentality is bearish, and the ethyl acetate market is weak.

According to the analysts of the business community, the current trading and investment atmosphere in the acetic acid market is weak, the supply side enterprises’ devices operate stably, the market supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand has not improved. In addition, the raw material side’s market is weak, the support is insufficient, and the acetic acid market is lack of good news. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be sorted out, the price trend will be stable, and the specific market supply and demand will change.

In November, the domestic polysilicon market continued the slight decline of last month, with a monthly decline of only 0.56%. As of November 29, the domestic supply price basically maintained the level at the beginning of the month, while the import supply declined slightly, with a range of 3000-5000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, the single-crystal compact mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy at the end of the month reached RMB 298-30500/ton.

From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers remains high. The supply was flat in October. The number of orders signed by silicon material manufacturers declined compared with that of last month. The enterprise’s shipment speed slowed down. With the decline of downstream silicon chip prices, the commencement of construction decreased slightly, and the bargaining power of silicon material manufacturers weakened. In general, due to the continuous follow-up of downstream demand, silicon materials still maintain a balance between supply and demand.

From the perspective of silicon chips, the price of silicon chips fell this month. On November 24, Dachang Longji Co., Ltd. released the executive price of silicon chips. The price of some models was significantly lower than that in October. The price of P-type M10 single silicon chips fell to 7.42 yuan from 7.54 yuan last month, a decrease of 1.59%. On the 27th, Central also lowered the price of silicon chips, with a heavy drop. The price of p-type and N-type silicon chips fell by 0.33 yuan to 0.47 yuan per chip, a drop of 4.42% to 4.56%. The commencement of silicon wafer is generally stable, and the demand continues to advance.

Terminal demand: the battery chips and components are basically stable this month. The quotation of battery chips is still hovering at a high level, especially the demand for large-sized battery chips is still good. The orders continue to be hot, and the price is relatively rigid, close to the upper limit of the tolerance of terminal components. On the component side, the price changes little. Despite the policy encouragement, due to the epidemic situation and cold weather, the employment and logistics have different degrees of negative impact, and the installation progress has been delayed. In addition, due to the approaching Christmas, the shortage of overseas labor, the decline of installed capacity, and the backlog of overseas component orders.

Future market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from the business community believe that the silicon material fundamentals maintain a balance between supply and demand at present, but in the later period, as some devices are facing production, the supply pressure will increase, and external demand will continue to slow down in the near future or due to the impact of Christmas labor shortage, and domestic installed capacity will also decline due to the impact of winter weather. In addition, domestic regulation and control efforts will increase, resulting in heavy resistance to market rise. It is comprehensively predicted that the silicon material market still has room for further decline.

This week (11.21-25), domestic butyl acetate continued to be weak in the downward trend, and the market was short of good news. The main reason is that the demand is relatively weak, and the support of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol is not strong. According to the monitoring of the business community, butyl acetate fell by 4.50% this week. The domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate on Friday was 7200-7500 yuan/ton.

First of all, from the cost perspective, acetic acid and n-butanol fluctuated slightly, and the prices of acetic acid and n-butanol rebounded, but with little effort. At present, the prices are still relatively low, which is difficult to provide strong support for downstream butyl acetate. According to the business agency, acetic acid rose 0.37% this week and n-butanol rose 0.7% this week.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid rebounded slightly by 0.38% this week, but the price is still hovering at a low level. The main reason was that the supply was slightly tightened, the acetic acid plant of Shanghai Huayi stopped due to failure, and the export of some regions increased, while the domestic supply declined for a short time. However, the rebound amplitude is small, and the downturn in downstream demand is difficult to support a strong price rise, especially in North China, Northwest China and other regions where demand is weak, and it is difficult to follow up the late rise.

From the perspective of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows a relatively prominent pressure of supply and demand, and the market shows that both supply and demand are not strong. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers remains low, and the market operating rate is still below 40%. The supply pressure is not large. This week, the prices of butyl acetate manufacturers remained at last week’s level. Downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading and investment atmosphere is not good, and most businesses are bearish.

Future market forecast: In the short term, the cost of butyl acetate is unlikely to be good in the later period, and the weak shock will continue if the supply and demand are not strong or the market is plagued for a long time. In the near future, attention should be paid to the price trend of upstream acetic acid and n-butanol, as well as the commencement of downstream plants.

Business agency: SBR market fluctuated in a narrow range in November

The market of styrene butadiene rubber fluctuated in a narrow range in November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was 10908 yuan/ton, down 1.50% from 11075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The highest point in the month was 11075 yuan/ton, the lowest point was 10641 yuan/ton, and the amplitude was 3.91%. At the beginning of the month, the downstream gas buying was sluggish, the ex factory price of styrene butadiene rubber was significantly lowered, and the offer of merchants fell with each other. With the weakening of supply side pressure and the increase of downstream inquiries, the SBR market fluctuated steadily and slightly. As of November 25, the quotation of styrene butadiene rubber 1502 in Qilu/Jihua/Fushun and other markets in East China was between 10,900 yuan and 11,300 yuan/ton; In 1712, the mainstream report was 9800~10100 yuan/ton.

The commencement of styrene butadiene rubber industry in November decreased compared with that in October, and the pressure on the supply side of styrene butadiene rubber eased. According to the business agency, Li Changrong’s 50000 t/a styrene butadiene unit will stop on November 4, and will restart in early December; Zhejiang Weitai 100000 t/a styrene butadiene unit will be shut down for maintenance on November 20, and the maintenance is planned to last one month. Shenhua Chemical’s 180,000 t/a styrene butadiene unit is planned to reduce its load to 20% to 30% in mid December;

In November, the prices of butadiene and styrene, the raw materials of styrene butadiene rubber, both fell, and the cost fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 25, the price of butadiene was 6763 yuan/ton, down 11.05% from 7603 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of November 25, the price of styrene was 7950 yuan/ton, down 4.31% from 8308 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the natural rubber market fluctuated and rose, with stronger support for styrene butadiene rubber. As of November 25, the price was 12016 yuan/ton, up 4.22% from 11530 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The commencement of tires in major downstream consumer industries in November was slightly lower than that in October. According to the business community, the commencement of all steel tires in Shandong in the middle of November was around 5.0%, and the commencement of semi steel tires was 5.9% (the commencement load in the middle of October was 5.2% and 6.5% respectively), which had weak support for styrene butadiene rubber.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the supply side pressure eased in November, and Shenhua plans to significantly reduce the negative operation in December. It is expected that the supply side pressure of styrene butadiene rubber will drop again later; But the price of raw materials is low; If there is no bright spot on the demand side, it is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will still be difficult to improve in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week, and the number of enterprises whose prices fell gradually increased. As of November 24, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 581000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% compared with the average price of 587000 yuan/ton on November 20. On November 24, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 597,000 yuan/ton, down 1.16% compared with the average price of 604,000 yuan/ton on November 20.

From the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices still showed a downward trend this week, and the market showed a downward expectation. In terms of supply, the products of major mainstream manufacturers are mainly based on long-term cooperation. In order to ensure supply, there is basically no external goods. However, as the temperature gradually decreases in winter, salt lake enterprises in Qinghai may be affected by this, and the price of lithium carbonate may play a supporting role.

In terms of demand, the end market rush in the fourth quarter came to an end, and the demand for power end market weakened and the heat gradually decreased. It is understood that the output of downstream cathode material plants and lithium iron enterprises has declined, which has also driven the overall demand for lithium carbonate to weaken. The market procurement is in a state of rigid demand, and the mood is still mainly wait-and-see.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable. From the perspective of cost, the price of spodumene in the upstream is high, which still supports the cost. At present, the spot market is dominated by just in demand transactions, but with the reduction of downstream battery plants, the ternary demand situation is not as expected, and the price of lithium hydroxide is mainly stable for the time being.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream is stable. Recently, the overall price trend of lithium salt and iron phosphate, the two main materials of lithium iron phosphate, is stable, and the cost of lithium iron phosphate is stable. At present, the demand for lithium iron at the energy storage end is still high. However, under the strong uncertainty of future demand, some lithium iron enterprises have tightened production scheduling and are cautious in purchasing.

Lithium carbonate analysts from the business community believe that the market’s willingness to receive goods is relatively conservative due to the weakness of downstream demand in the near future, and the loose market quotation has led to the rising of market gaming sentiment. However, due to the weakening of the market output in winter and the support of the high auction price of the ore end, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 5875.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, Shanxi’s industrial grade first grade potassium nitrate was quoted at 5850.00 yuan/ton, down 0.43%, and the price rose 0.43% year on year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market fell slightly this week. It can be seen from the figure above that the potassium nitrate market declined in the past two months, and the decline in the market this week was slightly slower. Recently, new sources of imported potassium chloride are being supplemented, but the supply of special varieties in some regions is slightly tight. The downstream demand is not good, and the purchase of just needed goods is maintained. The potassium nitrate shipment is not smooth, and the market is down. According to the statistics of the business society, the domestic mainstream potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5600-5900 yuan/ton this week (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation varies according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has fallen, the downstream demand has weakened, and the purchase of just needed potassium chloride is the main demand, and the market turnover is poor. At present, the sales price of 60% domestic potassium crystals in the market is mostly 3400-3800 yuan/ton. The price of 57% of the powder in Qinghai small factories is 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and the price of 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade areas is 3300-3400 yuan/ton. The price of 62% white potassium at the port is mostly 3450-3600 yuan/ton (the price drops by 50 yuan/ton). The price of large particles at the port is mostly 3450-3500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of 60% red powder is 3800-3850 yuan/ton.

Recently, new orders for border trade of potassium chloride have not been signed, and the supply of goods may be short, but the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will decline mainly in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has not changed much, and the domestic rare earth market is mainly stable. On November 20, the rare earth index was 628 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.64% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and 131.73% higher than the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have not changed much, and some prices have declined slightly. As of the 21st, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 787500 yuan/ton, up 0.32% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 650000 yuan/ton, up 0.39% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 720000 yuan/ton, which is stable; The price of neodymium metal is 905000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is stable; The price of praseodymium metal is 905000 yuan/ton, which is stable this week; The price of praseodymium oxide was 665000 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 1.48%%.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, the inventory of enterprises is overstocked, and the downstream inquiry list is cold. The procurement is poor, and the market situation of light rare earths is weak. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the limited transportation in Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited, and the production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the transportation is relatively difficult, and the spot supply has decreased. Recently, the inventory of downstream magnetic material merchants still exists, and some manufacturers mainly digest the inventory. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in the scarcity of orders, dealers’ difficulty in shipping, and the rare earth market remains weak.

The price of dysprosium series of heavy rare earth in China rose slightly. As of the 21st, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.3 million yuan/ton, up 1.77% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.285 million yuan/ton, with a 1.56% increase; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.97 million yuan/ton, up 1.02%; The domestic price of terbium has declined slightly. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 13.1 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.45 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth is mainly stable. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other regions is reduced. Production enterprises are gradually starting to work. The supply of heavy rare earth is increased. The price of heavy rare earth has not changed much. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earths is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the market price of heavy rare earth remains high.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.599 million and 2.505 million respectively in October 2022, up 11.1% and 6.9% year on year. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 762000 and 714000 respectively, with year-on-year growth of 87.6% and 81.7%, and the market share reached 28.5%. The production and sales of automobiles rose, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the decline in the domestic rare earth market was limited.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths are in sustainable development. In the short term, the epidemic situation in some regions is repeated, the downstream procurement is limited, and the orders of magnetic material manufacturers are poor. The downstream businesses mainly digest the inventory. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the rare earth market is weak and difficult to change. In the long run, the demand for rare earths is still guaranteed, and there is no lack of the possibility of recovery.