This week (3.20-24), the butyl acetate market slightly declined, with the trading center moving down by 100 yuan or more compared to the previous week. According to the monitoring of the business news agency, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 1.01%. The cost side is affected by the weakness of acetic acid and the weak balance between supply and demand side.

Market analysis: This week, the quotations of large factories are mainly stable, the operating rate of enterprises is low, and the supply and demand maintain a weak balance. The raw material acetic acid did not improve, and the price remained unchanged this week; The price of n-butanol, another raw material, rose by 1.78% per week. The cost of butyl ester was mixed, and the overall price was mostly suppressed by the negative effects of upstream products. In addition, downstream purchases are often made on demand, and manufacturers often use them as needed, making it difficult to increase the volume of transactions. However, the operating rate of the butyl acetate industry remained low, generally below 40%, and limited supply also supported prices.

Future Forecast: It is expected that the butyl ester market may maintain a weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the start-up status of raw material acetic acid, n-butanol, and butyl acetate manufacturers. Currently, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 7200-7400 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly this week. On March 13, the price of pure benzene was 7203-7350 yuan/ton (average price: 7276 yuan/ton), while on Thursday (March 16), the price of pure benzene was 7053-7300 yuan/ton (average price: 7176 yuan/ton), down 1.69% from last week and 12.48% from the same period last year.

2、 Analytical Review

Yesterday, prices in East China fell sharply, and news from the macro market exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the industry for the future, with cargo holders actively shipping. Downstream buying is insufficient, and the offer is withdrawn. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is cautious and the transaction is poor.

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene rose to 7300 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 100 yuan/ton).

Crude oil has stopped falling and stabilized, and there is still support for the market’s long-term supply and demand. It is expected that prices will stabilize and consolidate in the morning, and attention will be paid to the downward range of main refineries.

Downstream

3、 Aftermarket Forecast

Pure benzene market: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated and fell, with insufficient support for the market price of styrene. The offer for pure benzene moved downward, with limited transaction volume. Shandong Refinery is not willing to hold goods, actively adjusting prices to promote shipment, and overall market prices have moved downward. In February, due to centralized maintenance in the downstream, the market supply was relatively abundant, and prices were expected to be weak and volatile.

Saudi Arabia and Russia discussed stabilizing the market, adding to the weakening of the US dollar and a rebound in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose by $0.74/barrel or 1.09% to $68.35/barrel; ICE oil futures 05 contract rose $74.70/barrel, or 1.37%, by $1.01/barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures 2305 fell 27.5 yuan to 502.8 yuan per barrel, while it rose 1.6 yuan to 504.4 yuan per barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, prices in East China fell sharply, and the news in the macro market exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the industry for the future. Holders actively shipped. Downstream buying is insufficient, and the offer is withdrawn. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is cautious and the transaction is poor.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has been stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9714.29 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 9714.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.30%.

Supply side: The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is low and stable, with the mainstream price of 9500-10000 yuan/ton negotiated by various regions of the country. Recently, some units are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order situation is poor. Affected by this, the price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Raw material side: The market price trend of raw material fluorite is temporarily stable, with the average domestic fluorite price of 2950 yuan/ton as of the 17th, and the price trend is stable this week. Recently, the operating rate at the domestic supply side has increased, with some fluorite enterprises starting operations, and the supply of domestic fluorite production enterprises has increased. Raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. The price trend of fluorite on the site is temporarily stable, and hydrofluoric acid is affected by costs, with little market volatility.

The price trend of raw material sulfuric acid market has increased, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price of 273.33 yuan/ton as of the 17th, and the price rose 1.86% this week, leading to a higher price trend this week. Recently, domestic sulfuric acid plants have been operating stably, with normal supply, and downstream procurement enthusiasm for sulfuric acid has increased. Positive factors have supported the upward trend of sulfuric acid prices, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market to stabilize.

Demand side: The market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has risen slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the factory price, leading to a slight recovery in the domestic refrigerant R22 price. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, inventory is within a reasonable range, and there is a lot of wait-and-see sentiment. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a has increased slightly. However, currently, demand based procurement is the main trend. Downstream enterprises are not starting high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25500-26500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. Due to the impact of light refrigerant delivery, the market for downstream R134a has slightly increased. Recently, procurement in the downstream refrigerant industry is not active, with a operating rate of less than 30%. For upstream raw materials, procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable.

Future Forecast: In the short term, the market trend of raw material fluorite is stable, and the downstream refrigerant industry remains sluggish. However, the refrigerant market has risen slightly, affected by both short and long factors. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market price will remain low and temporarily stable in the short term.

This week (3.13~3.20), the nitrile rubber market declined slightly. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of nitrile rubber was 16525 yuan/ton, down 3.64% from 17150 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of butadiene as a raw material fell, while the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated within a narrow range. The factory price of nitrile rubber for enterprises was temporarily stable, but the downstream demand side was weak, with weak market transactions, and the price of nitrile rubber decreased slightly.

This week (3.13~3.20), the price of raw material butadiene fell, while the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated slightly, and the cost of nitrile rubber weakened slightly. According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, as of March 20, the price of butadiene was 8691 yuan/ton, down 5.18% from 9166 yuan/ton last Monday; As of March 20th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10375 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from 10400 yuan/ton on Monday.

The supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable this week.

Since March, inquiries in the downstream rubber products industry such as rubber pipes and auto parts have been dominated by small orders, with a small amount of transactions in the market.

Future Forecast: Business Agency nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable, but the price of raw material butadiene is falling, while the cost of nitrile rubber is declining; Currently, the improvement in downstream construction is not obvious, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate in a weak manner in the short term.

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the Business News Agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently fallen due to shocks. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8425.6700 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08%. The price fell 8.54% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has continued to decline. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price fluctuation of styrene is mainly small, and the price continues to decline this week. Styrene maintenance devices have been restarted in succession, inventories have risen, international crude oil prices have fluctuated and become unstable, pure benzene market has not fluctuated much, cost support is poor, and styrene spot demand is poor, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly this week. On March 13, the price of pure benzene was 7203-7350 yuan/ton (average price: 7276 yuan/ton), while on Thursday (March 16), the price of pure benzene was 7053-7300 yuan/ton (average price: 7176 yuan/ton), down 1.69% from last week and 12.48% from the same period last year. The news in the macro market has exacerbated the pessimistic expectations of the industry for the future, and cargo holders have actively shipped. Downstream buying is insufficient, and the offer is withdrawn. The buying sentiment in the Shandong market is cautious and the transaction is poor.

Downstream, the three downstream markets of styrene fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9333 yuan/ton, while at the end of the week, the average price of PS was 9283 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.51%, down 12.97% compared to the same period last year. The PS market price has steadily declined, the cost center has weakened, support has weakened, and the digestion speed is moderate. The PS price has slightly weakened, some goods are tight, and prices are firm. The overall market transaction is average. The total production of domestic PS in March is expected to reach 370000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.58%.

This week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials is 9600 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The supply of goods on the site is still relatively loose, and the downstream production consumption inventory is dominated. The reference market price of EPS ordinary materials in South China is around 9500-9600 yuan/ton (including tax).

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been stable. According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, the average price on March 20th was 11825.00 yuan/ton. Previously, the ABS industry had been operating at a high load for more than a month. Due to supply side pressure and fierce competition for new materials, petrochemical plants began to reduce their load independently. Last week, the industry load decreased by 6% compared to the beginning of the month, but the operating rate of 90% is still high. Currently, the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant, and domestic inventory has accumulated. The factory still has a plan to reduce the burden in the future, and the news has laid a foundation for some spot goods.

In the near future, crude oil is expected to bottom out and rebound, with good support for styrene. Port inventory has been slightly destocked, and short-term volatility in the styrene market is expected to prevail.

The domestic cobalt price fluctuated and fell this week

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 17, the cobalt price was 304700 yuan/ton, down 2.21% from 311600 yuan/ton on March 10. Cobalt market demand is weak, and domestic cobalt prices have fallen in a volatile manner.

Global smartphone shipments expected to decline

According to the quarterly tracking report of International Data Corporation (IDC) mobile phones, it is still difficult to be optimistic about the smartphone market in 2023. In 2023, the shipment volume of the global smartphone market will be less than 1.2 billion units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%; The shipment volume in the Chinese market is expected to be only 283 million units, down 1.1% year-on-year. Inflation and uncertainty in the global economy have weakened the recovery in consumer demand. The global and Chinese smartphone markets have rebounded, but they still face serious threats. The recovery in mobile phone market consumption is less than expected, and the expected decline in mobile phone shipments in 23 years is expected, while the expected decline in cobalt market demand.

Sales of wearable devices plummeted

According to the latest report by market research agency Canalys, the global wearable bracelet market shipped 50 million units in the fourth quarter of 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. Due to factors such as Christmas, the fourth quarter is usually the peak season. As a “new upstart” in consumption, smart wearable devices are the “second battleground” in the mobile phone market. Smart watches have been in a steady growth state, but in the fourth quarter of the traditional peak season of 22 years, there has been an abnormal two-digit decline. Sales of smart watches of various major brands have experienced significant declines in varying degrees in the fourth quarter, with weak consumption in the downstream of the cobalt market and increased downward pressure on cobalt prices.

Overview and outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business News, believes that mobile phone sales have fallen short of expectations, wearable device sales have plummeted, cobalt market demand is weak, and cobalt prices have fallen in a volatile manner.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline was relatively stable this month. The market price of aniline was 12100 yuan/ton on March 6 and 12200 yuan/ton on March 10, up 0.82% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Pure benzene market: the increase in the main listing boosted market confidence, and the price stopped falling and rebounded, but the downstream resisted high-priced raw materials, and the trading volume was low; Shandong Refinery also resisted high-price pure benzene, and the number of transactions in the day decreased compared with yesterday. Overnight crude oil and styrene prices fell, but the main unit price of pure benzene supported the market. It is expected that the pure benzene in East China will rebound slightly today. On Thursday (March 9), the price of pure benzene was 7275 yuan/ton, up 1.74% from last week and down 18.07% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the domestic nitric acid price fell slightly this week. The price was 2483 yuan/ton on March 6 and 2467 yuan/ton on March 9, which was 4.73% lower than last week and 12.04% higher than the same period last year.

Due to the tight spot supply of aniline in the northern region, the market was bullish, and the price rose continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for aniline is difficult to be significantly improved. With the favorable supply turning weak, aniline stabilizes and the wait-and-see increases.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

At present, the factors affecting the price of aniline still lie in the supply and demand side. At present, the market is waiting for the implementation of Jinling maintenance plan, and it is expected that there will be a small increase in domestic aniline in the next cycle.

The price of o-xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the price trend chart of ortho-xylene of the business community, the price of ortho-xylene was 8300 yuan/ton as of March 10, which was stable compared with 8300 yuan/ton as of March 1. The market of ortho-xylene industrial chain rose slightly, and the domestic ortho-xylene market temporarily stabilized this week.

The market of raw material mixed xylene stabilized this week

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business agency that as of March 10, the price of mixed xylene was 7560 yuan/ton, up 1.48% from 7450 yuan/ton on March 1; Compared with the price of mixed xylene of 7560 yuan/ton on March 6, it is stable. In March, the crude oil price fluctuated and consolidated, the price of petroleum naphtha fluctuated and increased, and the price of mixed xylene rose slightly. However, the price of naphtha and mixed xylene stabilized this week, and the rising power of ortho-xylene weakened, but the cost support remained.

The downstream phthalic anhydride market rose slightly this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride of the business community that the price of ortho-functional phthalic anhydride was 8537.50 yuan/ton as of March 10, up 1.04% from the price of 8450 yuan/ton on March 1; The price of ortho phthalic anhydride rose by 0.74% from 8475 yuan/ton on March 6. The market of o-phthalic anhydride rose slightly this week, but the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized, and the support for o-xylene rise remained.

Future prospects

According to the analyst of adjacent xylene data of the business agency, the market in the upstream and downstream of the adjacent xylene industry chain rose slightly this week, but the rising trend slowed down, the price of mixed xylene stabilized, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the support for the rise of adjacent xylene weakened. In the future, the cost of ortho-xylene will stabilize and the demand support will remain. It is expected that the price of ortho-xylene will stabilize in the future.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, and the urea price fell from 2841.88 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2833.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.29%, down 2.15% year-on-year. The urea commodity index on March 12 was 131.80, which was the same as yesterday, down 13.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 137.05% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support weakened, downstream demand was good, and urea supply was abundant

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream price of domestic urea fell this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream market of urea fell sharply this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, from 5934.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5044.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 15.00%, down 30.35% from the same period last year; The price of anthracite rose slightly, and the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing lump) rose by 30 yuan/ton to 1510 yuan/ton at the weekend; The price of liquid ammonia dropped slightly, from 4440.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 4406.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.75%, down 3.22% year on year. The price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, and the support for urea price was insufficient. The price of melamine downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8275.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8225.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.60%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has gradually followed up, and industrial demand has increased. The use of fertilizer for spring ploughing is gradually followed up, and the agricultural demand is good. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is acceptable, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is general. The start of plate and melamine enterprises has increased slightly, and the purchase of raw materials is mainly needed. From the perspective of supply, some gas-head enterprises have started to resume production. The daily production of urea is about 170000 tons, and the supply is sufficient.

The market fell slightly in the aftermarket

The domestic urea market may fall slightly in the middle and late March. According to the urea analyst of the Business Agency, the prices of anthracite and liquefied gas in the upstream of urea have risen and fallen, and the cost of urea is not supported enough. Downstream agricultural demand increased slightly and industrial demand increased. The daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. In the future, urea may fall in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the market of isopropanol in the first ten days of March fell first and then rose, and the main trend was upward. The average price of isopropanol in China was 6860 yuan/ton on March 1 and 6890 yuan/ton on March 10, with an increase of 0.44%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first ten days of March, the market price of isopropanol fell first and then rose. At present, the market is fair. Many manufacturers have closed their orders without reporting, the price of raw acetone has risen, and the mentality of isopropanol is obvious. Up to now, most of the prices quoted in the isopropanol market in Shandong are around 6500-6800 yuan/ton; Most prices of isopropanol in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are around 6800-7200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the acetone market rose in the first ten days of March. The average price of acetone was 5870 yuan/ton on March 1 and 6000 yuan/ton on March 10, with an increase of 2.21%. At present, acetone inventory is low, the market spot is tight, and the focus of acetone market is upward.

In terms of propylene, according to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has stopped falling and rebounded recently, with a narrow rise of 50 yuan/ton for two consecutive days. It is understood that in the early stage, the price of propylene has been continuously reduced, the price has been adjusted in place, the enterprise inventory is controllable, and the downstream bargain-hunting has led to a small increase in the market. The market is expected to be stronger in the short term under the support of downstream demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believed that the price of raw acetone rose and the price of propylene rebounded. The support for raw materials is good, and the downstream demand is fair. The domestic isopropanol market has good confidence. It is expected that the focus of isopropanol market will move up in the short term.