Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid price has temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 175.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 41.67% year-on-year. On May 22, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 46.05, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 66.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 156.12% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient upstream support, weakened downstream procurement

From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price was adjusted at a low level, at 1781.25 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 21.49% year-on-year; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level. The market price was 680.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell 54.36% year on year. Overall, upstream support is insufficient and downstream demand is weakening.

Future Market Forecast

In late May, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a low level, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets are consolidating at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that hydrochloric acid has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 19th, the average price quoted by domestic top grade DMF enterprises was 5350 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.93% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the overall market is operating in a narrow and weak range, with smooth shipments.

The trend of DMF this week is weak, with a slight decline in prices compared to the same period last week. Currently, the purchasing atmosphere is average, with the mainstream price range of around 5400 yuan/ton. The operating rate is currently stable, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Downstream purchases are made on demand, with merchants offering discounts and taking orders, and shipments are normal.

Chemical Index: On May 18th, the chemical index stood at 875 points, a decrease of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.50% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, DMF will mainly operate stably, with a narrow range and weak operation.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China increased from 3050.00 yuan/ton last weekend to 3116.67 yuan/ton this weekend, an increase of 2.19%. Weekend prices fell by 29.17% year-on-year. On May 15th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 82.53, an increase of 0.87 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 61.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and a 48.73% increase from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region has slightly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

The upstream semicarbon market was consolidated at a high level, while the downstream PVC market price fell slightly. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1350 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week dropped from 5868.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5805.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.08%. Weekend prices fell by 33.04% year-on-year. The PVC market price fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid to late May, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and downstream demand is insufficient. In mid to late May, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2092.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2075 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price fell by 0.84%, a year-on-year decrease of 24.09%. On May 14th, the baking soda commodity index was 138.55, unchanged from yesterday, a 41.25% decrease from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 56.96% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2020 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and consolidating, and the downstream market has seen moderate demand recently. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1900-2200 yuan/ton, which is the mainstream market quotation. According to the product analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash in the upstream of baking soda is relatively weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was around 2600 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 2530 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.69%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.16% compared to last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak trend in the price of baking soda is due to sufficient supply of baking soda, and the recent weak trend in the price of raw material soda ash. The downstream demand for baking soda in medicine, textiles, food, and other areas is average, and the main focus is on purchasing baking soda according to demand, with cautious purchasing sentiment. Overall, it is expected that the weak trend in baking soda prices will be the main trend in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12666 yuan/ton on May 8, and the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12866 yuan/ton on May 12. Caprolactam prices rose 1.58% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, resulting in insufficient cost support. At present, caprolactam market supply is relatively stable, and supply and demand are relatively balanced. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, and procurement is more cautious, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude.

This week, the price of pure benzene slightly decreased. On May 8th, the price of pure benzene was between 7050-7330 yuan/ton (average price 7190 yuan/ton), and on May 12th, the price was between 7050-7170 yuan/ton (average price 7110 yuan/ton). The price decreased by 4.24% compared to last week and 18.9% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene dropped to 7050 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support is general. Terminal follow-up is slow, and the market is mostly low priced transactions. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be dominated by narrow range consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of May 11, 2023, the domestic silicone DMC market price reference was 14500 yuan/ton, and on May 7 (silicone DMC reference was 15080 yuan/ton), the price fell 580 yuan/ton, or 3.85%.

 From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (5.07-5.11), the domestic organic silicon DMC market is generally weak and declining. Entering this week, the overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market has improved poorly. Downstream demand is cautious, and demand support is still loose. At the beginning of the week, Shandong large factories continuously lowered the price of organic silicon DMC, with a cumulative decrease of about 500 yuan/ton. Subsequently, in the middle of the week, other factories also started to adjust with a decrease of about 200 yuan/ton. As of May 11, the market price of silicone DMC in China is around 14300-14800 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the domestic organic silicon DMC market is average, and the overall downstream demand is still weak. There is little change in the start of organic silicon DMC construction, and there is still some pressure on the supply side in some regions. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly subject to minor adjustments and operations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

After the holiday, the price of acetic anhydride slightly decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 6th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.23% compared to the price of 5450 yuan/ton on April 30th. The price of raw material acetic acid has decreased, increasing the downward pressure, and the price of acetic anhydride has slightly decreased after the holiday.

Acetic acid prices have stopped falling and rebounded

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of May 6th, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a rebound from the price of 3233.33 yuan/ton on May 1st, with an increase of 0.52%; The price of acetic acid decreased by 1.52% compared to 3300 yuan/ton on April 20th. After the holiday, the price of acetic acid stopped falling and rebounded. Acetic acid companies started at a low level, and the supply of acetic acid was insufficient. The support for the rise of acetic acid prices remained, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride in the future weakened. The upward momentum remained.

Methanol prices fluctuate and fall after the holiday

According to the methanol commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of May 6th, the price of methanol was 2411.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.48% compared to the methanol price of 2423.23 yuan/ton on May 1st. After the holiday, methanol prices fluctuated and fell, while the cost of acetic acid decreased. In the future, there will be significant downward pressure on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s Acetic Anhydride Data believe that after the holiday, acetic acid prices have rebounded, methanol prices have fluctuated and fallen, acetic anhydride costs have decreased, acetic anhydride manufacturers have low operating rates, and acetic anhydride supply is insufficient. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased and the supply is temporarily stable. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will weaken and decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic butadiene market fell first and then rose in April. From April 1 to 28, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 8551 yuan/ton to 8851 yuan/ton, with a 3.51% drop in the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 5.83%, and a 9.83% year-on-year drop in the price.

At the beginning of the month, the first phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant was restarted, gradually releasing production, and the supply side was relatively empty. At the same time, the decline in external market conditions has dragged down the weak atmosphere of the domestic butadiene market. In mid month, due to the news of low prices in the external market and the reduction of Sinopec’s supply prices, the market atmosphere was relatively empty. In addition, some inquiries had a clear intention to suppress prices, resulting in a slight weakening of the focus of the domestic butadiene market. In the latter half of the month, due to the impact of external market prices and high prices from mainstream domestic suppliers, as well as the increase in Sinopec supply prices and the approaching holiday, some downstream restocking occurred, and the butadiene market rebounded and rose.

On the cost side, since OPEC, an oil producing country, announced an additional significant production reduction on April 3, oil prices have continued to hover at high levels, boosted by positive supply side factors. Especially with the decline in inflation levels in the United States, the market is hoping that the Federal Reserve will relax its tight monetary policy, and the pressure on the demand side will ease. The WTI once exceeded $83 per barrel, reaching a high in the past five months.

In April, the domestic naphtha market first rose and then fell, and the terminal restructuring just needed to replenish. Some ethylene demand was concentrated and released, and refineries were actively shipping, resulting in good market trading. Weak costs and demand, terminal restructuring, weak demand for ethylene, limited market trading, and a downward trend in the naphtha market. The cost of butadiene is mixed.

On the supply side, Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 ton/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on April 8th, with an estimated shutdown time of 30-40 days. The 120000 ton/year butadiene plant of North Huajin Chemical is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance around April 28th, lasting for about 10 days. The 160000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical operates stably, with a bidding price of 8200 yuan/ton for 300 tons of goods for export; The transaction price is 8320 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market for butadiene has fluctuated, with some products experiencing strong fluctuations in crude oil prices and rising prices. Some products are experiencing weak downstream demand and lower market conditions, while downstream profits are still under pressure. Some industries are experiencing poor operating conditions. Specifically, the decline in nitrile rubber was relatively small, with a 1.55% increase in butadiene rubber and a 5.69% increase in styrene butadiene rubber. The demand side for butadiene is slightly bearish.

In terms of external trading: On April 27th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $1035- $1045 per ton; The Chinese CFR report is between $1055 and $1065 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at $695-705 per ton, down $30 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 795-805 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea/ $1035- $1045 per ton/ 0 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/ $1055- $1065 per ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ FOB Rotterdam/ 695-705 USD/ton/- $30/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 795-805 euros/ton/ -10 euros/ton

In the future, it is predicted that the maintenance of some devices will form a high level of support for supply, and there is still a demand for pre holiday replenishment in the downstream, which may support the high and strong price of butadiene. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the spot market price of gold will be 446.45 yuan/g on April 27, 2023, up 0.48% daily and 1.60% higher than that at the beginning of the month (April 1).

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of silver in the market will be 5602.33 yuan/kg on April 27, 2023, up 5.70% from the beginning of the month (April 1), and 4.81% from the early average price of 5345 yuan/kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1).

Summary of Price Trends of Precious Metals and Crude Oil

In the early stage, the correlation between precious metals and crude oil trends is strong. After the second half of 2022, precious metal prices have bottomed out and stabilized, and the magnitude of macro factors affecting them has begun to show differentiation.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trends of precious metal gold and silver have converged, but the decline in silver was deeper from April to August, and the recent recovery has been more significant. In December, silver continued its strong trend last month, and gold began to consolidate at high levels. In 2023, precious metal gold and silver have consolidated at high levels, with a slight decline in February. Since March, precious metal prices have started to rise.

Policy logic

The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP in May is strong, but there are expectations of a slowdown in subsequent monetary policy tightening; Overall, the short-term interest rate hike cycle is still ongoing, and the upward space for precious metals has always been constrained before the expected rate hike is falsified.

Fundamental logic

1. Domestic consumption of precious metals has improved

According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, the national gold consumption in the first quarter of 2023 was 291.58 tons, an increase of 12.03% compared to the same period in 2022.

Among them: 189.61 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 12.29%; 83.87 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 20.47%; Industrial and other gold consumption reached 18.10 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.90%.

2. Strong demand for central bank purchases

The global central bank’s gold purchase volume reached a record high of 1136 tons in 2022, and this trend is still continuing in 2023. Among them, the Singapore Monetary Authority purchased 51.8 tons of gold in the first two months of this year; The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months, and in the first quarter of 2023, global central banks maintained net purchases of gold. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings of gold for five consecutive months from November 2022 to March 2023, with a total increase of 57.85 tons in the first quarter. By the end of March, China’s gold reserve had reached 2068.38 tons.

3. Year-on-year growth in domestic supply

In the first quarter of 2023, the domestic raw material gold production was 84.972 tons, an increase of 1.571 tons compared to the same period in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.88%. Among them, 66.506 tons of gold from gold minerals and 18.466 tons of non ferrous byproducts were produced. Among them, large gold enterprises (groups) produce 32.717 tons of mineral gold in their mines, accounting for 49.19% of the national total. Overseas mines such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold achieved a mineral gold output of 14.395 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.17%.

In addition, in the first quarter of 2023, the production of imported raw materials was 29.901 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.41%. If this part of the imported raw material production was added, a total of 114.873 tons of gold were produced nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 6.92%.

Increased probability of high consolidation of precious metals

At present, the price of precious metals has approached a new high in nearly a decade. In the early stage, we expected that under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to relatively full risk aversion, which has been basically reflected in the price. Some central banks around the world increased their holdings of gold reserve, which also formed some support for gold prices.

However, China’s economic data for the first quarter grew by 4.5%, which partially alleviated concerns of a global economic recession. Coupled with the expected increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in May, it has to some extent suppressed the prices of non yielding precious metals.

It is expected that the high volatility and consolidation of precious metals will be the main trend in the short term, with a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.

The price increase of ortho xylene slowed down in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of ortho xylene was 8800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.23% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton as of March 31 of the previous month. In January, the price of ortho xylene decreased by 3.85%; In February, the price of ortho xylene surged by 6.67%; In March, the price of ortho xylene skyrocketed, increasing by 7.50%. In April, the upward trend of ortho xylene market slowed down, while the price of mixed xylene stopped rising and fell. The downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell, and the support for the rise of ortho xylene industry chain weakened and the downward pressure increased.

The market for raw material mixed xylene in April stopped rising and fell

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of April 26, the price of mixed xylene was 7830 yuan/ton, which was a decrease of 3.43% compared to March 31 when the price of mixed xylene was 7570 yuan/ton. In April, crude oil prices first rose and then fell, while mixed xylene prices stopped rising and fell. The cost of ortho xylene decreased, and the upward momentum of ortho xylene weakened and the downward pressure increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market declined in April

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of April 26th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.90% compared to the price of 8625 yuan/ton on April 1st. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the market for phthalic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on orthoxylene increased.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business Society’s neighboring xylene data believe that in April, the market of the neighboring xylene industry chain weakened, with crude oil prices rising first and then falling. The price of mixed xylene stopped rising and fell, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The support for the rising cost of neighboring xylene weakened, and the downward pressure increased. The downstream market weakened and demand weakened. In the future, the cost of ortho xylene will weaken, and demand will be weak. The ortho xylene industry chain will weaken, and it is expected that the price of ortho xylene will remain weak and stable in the future.