1、 Price trend

The PTFE market remained stable this week. According to statistics from Business Society, as of April 18th, the market price of PTFE suspended particles remained around 36500-50000 yuan/ton.

2、 Influencing factors:

Raw material side: The market price of R22 raw material side remains stable, with high costs under pressure, and companies have a strong bullish sentiment. Downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement being the main focus. At present, there is sufficient inventory, mainly focused on digesting inventory. Enterprises still have a wait-and-see mentality, and the market fluctuations are not significant. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of Shengyishe R22 was 24833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% compared to the beginning of this month (24166.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream end: Downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement as the main focus, and enterprises still have a wait-and-see mentality.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s PTFE analyst believes that the high prices of raw materials support weak downstream demand, and the PTFE market has remained stable in recent times.

Recently, the polyvinyl alcohol market has experienced a stalemate in trading performance, coupled with increased inventory pressure. The market is gradually showing a state of price without market, and spot prices in the market are declining. As of April 17th, the benchmark price of polyvinyl alcohol in Shengyishe was 12233.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.94% compared to the beginning of this month (12350.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side:

Recently, the price of acetic acid, a raw material for vinyl acetate, has significantly increased. As of April 17th, the benchmark price for acetic acid in Shengyishe was 3450.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.29% compared to the beginning of this month (3100.00 yuan/ton). Although the downstream purchasing sentiment is gradually weakening, the inventory in the eastern region is already tight, and some devices have unexpectedly reduced their load and stopped, making the supply of goods increasingly tight. It is expected that the market will still have a high possibility of rising this week.

The market price of calcium carbide is also stabilizing and rising. As of April 17th, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shengyishe was 3016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.56% compared to the beginning of this month (3000.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side:

The downstream market is showing a weak situation, and the market is gradually starting to operate, but the overall situation is not as good as in previous years. The usage has not improved, and the purchasing willingness is not good, making it difficult to increase the volume. Enterprises are offering discounts to sell. The bearish demand side affects the polyvinyl alcohol market.

Although the current price of polyvinyl alcohol has been repeatedly lowered, there is still profit margin. Some manufacturers sell at low prices, but the overall trading volume of the polyvinyl alcohol market is light. Traders and downstream traders are cautious in their operations. After the price reduction, the market’s bottom buying sentiment is highlighted, and the purchasing power of domestic and foreign spot purchases is expected to strengthen, boosting market confidence.

In summary, the supply of polyvinyl alcohol is relatively sufficient; In terms of demand, downstream factories purchase on demand and still maintain a cautious attitude towards procurement. Currently, the main downstream factories are operating normally, and the operating rate of terminal factories is low, resulting in a lack of enthusiasm for procurement; Supported by the favorable impact of raw material prices, it is expected that the price of polyvinyl alcohol 1799 may consolidate next week or there is a possibility of an upward trend in the short term. The expected transaction center is between 12200-12800 yuan/ton.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 92.5 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 53.28% year-on-year.

The upstream support is good, and the downstream demand is average

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating at an average level and low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with expectations of an increase and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has recently stabilized at a high level. The market price is 1818 yuan/ton, and the weekend price increased by 0.69% year-on-year. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late April, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with upward expectations and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sodium acetate maintained a downward trend in mid April. As of April 15th, 25% liquid sodium acetate in China was priced at 800 yuan per ton, a decrease of 27 yuan per ton from 827 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month. From the annual trend, the current price is at a low level.

From the perspective of raw materials, the upstream pure alkali market is weak and stable, with poor transaction performance, and some enterprises have shut down their facilities. The downstream glass production line remains stable, and the supply-demand relationship is gradually balanced.

According to analysts from Business Society’s sodium acetate data, upstream soda ash maintenance companies will gradually recover in the later stage, with an expected increase in raw material soda ash supply, stable glass photovoltaic production lines, and good demand in the soda ash market, which will provide support for the sodium acetate market. The price of sodium acetate is expected to fluctuate narrowly.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of carbon black has remained stable with an increase this week, and the market is currently operating steadily. As of the 12th, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was 10266 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the new bidding price for coal tar has slightly increased this week. As of the 12th, the price of coal tar was 5010 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 300 yuan/ton from April 1st, an increase of 5.58%. The cost pressure on downstream factories has increased, and there is a strong resistance to high priced raw materials. There is a certain bearish atmosphere in the market, and the cost of carbon black remains at a high level, providing certain support for the price of carbon black.

Construction status: Most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable construction this week.

In terms of terminals, the tire industry has started operating at a high load, but the shipping speed has significantly slowed down, and the phenomenon of enterprise inventory accumulation has increased. However, due to the fact that most merchants have already reserved inventory in advance, their acceptance of high cost carbon black is limited, and procurement is mainly based on demand. This results in slower shipments of carbon black enterprises and insufficient motivation for price increases.

Looking ahead to the future, due to the rising prices of high-temperature coal tar market, the support for the cost of carbon black will be strengthened; Downstream rubber and tire companies have average enthusiasm for purchasing high priced carbon black, with many inquiries maintaining a low price state. There is currently no significant positive trend on the demand side, and the carbon black market may continue to maintain a stable operating trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic caprolactam on April 1st was 12694 yuan/ton, and on April 10th, the average market price of domestic caprolactam was 12855 yuan/ton. In early April, the price of caprolactam increased by 1.27%.

2、 Market analysis

In early April, the market price of caprolactam increased. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. The maintenance of caprolactam units has increased, resulting in a decrease in market supply and stable downstream demand. The weekly settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 13120 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. In early April, the price of pure benzene in China increased. On April 10th, the reference price for pure benzene was 8720.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73% compared to April 1st (8488.83 yuan/ton). As of now, the price of Sinopec pure benzene is 8800 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. In early April, the domestic PA6 market remained stable with minor fluctuations, and various spot prices fluctuated, showing a stable and positive overall trend. As of April 10th, the average reference price of PA6 in China was 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% compared to April 1st (14775 yuan/ton).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been relatively strong and rising recently. Cost and supply side support, with an increase in favorable factors. It is expected that the market for caprolactam will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market has increased. On April 7th, the rare earth index was 378 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 62.46% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 39.48% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has increased. As of the 8th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.04 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.32% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.965 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.17% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.555 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.24%; The domestic price trend of terbium series has significantly increased, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 6.4 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 7.45 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market have significantly increased, with an increase in domestic rare earth market transactions and improved inquiries. Downstream enterprises have recently increased their procurement, and there has been little change in the operating rates of separated enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangxi regions, resulting in low production of heavy rare earths; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in the price trend of heavy rare earths. Recently, some heavy rare earth raw material imports have been tight, and the supply of heavy rare earth products on the market is relatively tight, leading to an upward trend in the heavy rare earth market.

According to statistics, in February 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 464000 and 477000 respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and 9.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.252 million and 1.207 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 29.4%. China’s automotive industry is booming, and the new energy vehicle market has performed particularly well, which has affected the price trend of the heavy rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowing growth rate. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to February 2024 reached 8773.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the price of heavy rare earths has risen.

Market forecast: Recently, there has been an increase in orders and purchases from magnetic material companies, coupled with an improvement in inquiries compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will continue to rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5112.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5087.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%, a month on month decrease of 1.69%, and the current price has dropped by 14.35% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has declined, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic market price of potassium chloride is at a relatively high level, and cost support is still acceptable. However, the transaction volume in the potassium nitrate market is sluggish, and traders mainly ship at low prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the price of potassium nitrate. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has declined. The domestic potassium chloride market is in a slow downward trend, with traders mainly shipping at low prices, and port shipments are still acceptable. Currently, the price of 62% white potassium is mostly around 2300 yuan/ton. In mid to early April, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

Recently, the domestic potassium chloride market has been at a high and firm price, but the market is in a slightly stagnant trading state, with poor sales of potassium nitrate. It is expected that the potassium nitrate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of trichloroethylene in barrels weakened in March. On March 29th, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was 6600 yuan/ton, and on March 1st, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was 6840 yuan/ton. The market price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased by 3.51% in March.

2、 Analysis and Review

The price of trichloroethylene continues to decline, and the market transaction atmosphere is light. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement has weakened, and the price of new orders is close to cost. Manufacturers have further weakened their profit sentiment, and dealers have consumed inventory, with a few temporarily leaving. The barrel prices of manufacturers in East China have slightly increased this month, but it is still difficult to boost market activity. Trichloroethylene dispersion has seen a narrow increase in price, with a price range of 4600-4900 yuan/ton in East China and a monthly increase of 100 yuan/ton; The quotation for the Southwest region is 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable within the month; The quotation for North China is 4700-4800 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable within the month.

The domestic market is light, and the export situation is still good. According to customs data, the total export volume of trichloroethylene from January to February was 3987.96 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 1.6%.

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the price of calcium carbide has continued to rise. On April 1st, the benchmark price of calcium carbide in Shengyishe was 3000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.45% compared to the beginning of last month (2900.00 yuan/ton). The rapid recovery of profits in calcium carbide production enterprises has boosted their enthusiasm to start production, and their supply capacity has recently shown a significant improvement.

In March, the Asian ethylene market weakened with an average CFR price of $930 per ton in Northeast Asia, a decrease of $20 per ton from the beginning of the month; The average price of CFR in Southeast Asia is $1010 per ton, and the price is stable. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

The liquid chlorine market continues to rise, with factories in Shandong Province priced at 300-500 yuan/ton. Supported by the supply side, the shipment situation of enterprises is good, and the market is operating at a high level.

In terms of demand:

The quota policy for third-generation refrigerants has been implemented, and the pattern of the refrigerant industry continues to optimize. The refrigerant industry as a whole has entered a business cycle, and the price of refrigerant R134a has risen strongly in the first quarter. On April 1st, the benchmark price of R134a from Shengyishe was 30666.67 yuan/ton, which is currently operating at a high level within the year. Export demand needs to be improved, and manufacturers maintain a price stance. At present, the overall stability is maintained.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s trichloroethylene analyst believes that the demand side of the raw material side provides good support for trichloroethylene, and it is expected that trichloroethylene loose water will steadily rise. The trichloroethylene barrel market is mainly driven by inventory consumption and operates weakly.

The market for dichloromethane increased significantly in March. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 29th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2435 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.95% from 2175 yuan/ton in early March. In March, the domestic methane chloride plant started operating steadily, and the supply of dichloromethane was relatively stable; In March, the methanol market for dichloromethane raw materials weakened and the price range of liquid chlorine fluctuated. The cost of dichloromethane still has support; During the peak season of air conditioning, the downstream refrigerant prices of dichloromethane have risen and the production has started steadily, providing support for terminal demand for dichloromethane; In mid to late March, the inventory of dichloromethane enterprises gradually decreased, and the dichloromethane market fluctuated upwards.

In March, the domestic methane chloride plant started operating with narrow fluctuations, and as of the end of March, the domestic methane chloride production was around 70%.

In March, the price of raw material methanol weakened and the price range of liquid chlorine fluctuated, and the cost of dichloromethane continued to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2593 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.35% from 2740 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; In March, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong fluctuated between 300 to 400 yuan/ton.

The demand for refrigerants in the air conditioning industry has significantly increased during the peak season, with a tight supply of refrigerants and rising prices. Overall, production has remained stable, providing strong support for the production of dichloromethane.

Market forecast: According to the methane chloride data of Business Society, there is currently some support for the cost of dichloromethane, and there is no significant pressure on enterprise inventory. The demand side is supported by downstream peak season demand, and overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate at a high level in April.