1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 936 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 971 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 24.33%. On March 6th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 844 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.14% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 930-1050 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). The overall upward trend of caustic soda prices this week is mainly due to manufacturers stopping for maintenance, which has eased the pressure on caustic soda inventory. The downstream price of alumina is basically maintained at 3200-3450 yuan/ton, and the demand for caustic soda is still acceptable.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has risen and the operating market has improved due to enterprise maintenance and inventory pressure. Downstream demand is still acceptable, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain its upward trend in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market rose in February and then fell back, with an overall slight decrease in prices. As of February 28th, the average bid price for maleic anhydride was 6560.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 0.91% from 6620.00 yuan/ton on February 1st.

Supply side: In early February, maleic anhydride continued its upward trend in the second half of January, with no pressure on maleic anhydride inventory. Main factories continued to rise, and distributors followed suit; In mid to late February, due to limited downstream production, the market price of maleic anhydride continued to decline. At present, the market supply is normal, and downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers of maleic anhydride have seen an increase in production, mainly through on-demand procurement. As of February 28th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6300 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6000 yuan/ton.

Upstream: In February, the price of pure benzene first rose and then fell, with a slight overall decrease in price. There is still pressure on local refining and shipping in Shandong region, and the focus continues to decline, releasing inventory pressure. In the East China region, import arbitrage has had a certain impact on the East China market, leading to a decline in market prices.

In February, the international crude oil market fluctuated downwards, and the price of n-butane fluctuated upwards. As of February 28th, the price in Shandong was around 5250 yuan/ton.

Downstream: Recently, unsaturated resin companies have been operating slowly, and there is a strong demand for purchasing unsaturated resins downstream, which has limited support for unsaturated resins. Currently, the procurement of maleic anhydride for unsaturated resins is limited.

The analyst of Shengyi Society’s maleic anhydride products believes that recently, the main downstream resin of maleic anhydride has completed its replenishment, and the follow-up of new orders has slowed down. Unsaturated resins mainly maintain the essential demand for maleic anhydride, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market; At present, the main factories producing maleic anhydride maintain stable prices, and it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

The focus of the domestic acetone market in February is on. The national acetone market has been trading at an average price of 6097 yuan/ton since February 1st, rising to 6492 yuan/ton on February 28th, an increase of 6.48%. From the perspective of the acetone market in East China alone, the price of 5950 yuan/ton quoted on February 1st has risen to 6520 yuan/ton quoted on February 28th, an increase of 9.85%.

Returning from the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic acetone market saw a broad upward trend in early February. On the one hand, there have been reports of shutdowns and maintenance of domestic phenol ketone plants, including the shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II and Ningbo Taihua plants due to malfunctions, resulting in a low operating rate of 70% for domestic phenol ketone plants. This operating rate is at a low level throughout the year, leading to a decrease in supply pressure expectations; On the other hand, imported goods are gradually being replenished, but there is not much pressure on port inventory. Downstream terminal factories have more inquiries after the holiday, and many have insufficient pre holiday inventory. After the holiday, inventory is limited and actively replenished. In the situation of low supply pressure, traders have little intention of lowering prices, continuously pushing up the market. The market has shown a significant upward trend in mid to early February.

In the second half of the month, with downstream restocking for a period of time, the purchasing pace gradually slowed down, the trading atmosphere cooled down, and the actual trading volume was relatively low. Traders actively shipped goods for profit, and there were some intentions to sell at a low price. The market center of gravity slightly declined, and in the latter half of the year, the market fluctuated in a narrow range of ups and downs.

Domestic enterprise installation situation in February: Huizhou Zhongxin Phase I phenol ketone installation will be shut down on November 1st, and the restart time is yet to be determined; The Guangxi Huayi phenol ketone plant will shut down on February 4, 2025, and is expected to undergo a maintenance period of 2 months; The phenol ketone unit of Ningbo Taihua will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 22nd; The second phase phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be shut down for maintenance from February 12th to February 20th; The Shanghai Xisafen ketone plant was shut down on February 25th and is expected to resume in early March. Details are being followed up.

It is expected that the average price of acetone in the domestic market will slightly increase in March. On the supply side, the operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises has increased in March, and the supply of domestic trade goods has increased compared to February; In terms of imports, the contracted goods from Saudi Arabia and Thailand have arrived normally, while the Taiwan facility has undergone more maintenance, resulting in a decrease in overall import replenishment. From the demand side, downstream MMA, MIBK, and bisphenol A plants have seen some improvement, while there has been little change in the demand for acetone. The overall demand for acetone remains stable with a slight increase, and it is expected to rise slightly in March.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 28th, the average selling price of PET is 6270 yuan/ton. This month’s price has shown a fluctuating trend of first rising and then falling, and entered the second half of the month with a downward trend.

Cost wise: In mid February, WTI crude oil prices rose to $72.32 per barrel, briefly supporting the cost side, but later weakened the cost support for polyester bottle flakes due to global economic concerns and OPEC+production expectations falling. The price expectations for the main raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol are weak. PTA processing fees are at a low level (300-350 yuan/ton), and the expectation of high and low crude oil prices weakens cost support; The improvement of the supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol is limited, and the price center has shifted downwards, further dragging down the cost of bottle chips.

On the supply side, the polyester bottle chip industry is still at the end of its capacity expansion cycle, with a high capacity base of existing equipment, leading to sustained pressure of oversupply. The inventory level this month is at a high level compared to the same period, coupled with the expected release of new production capacity (planned to add 2.15 million tons in 2025), intensifying market concerns about oversupply. Although the growth rate of new production capacity has slowed down, the overall pattern of supply exceeding demand in the market has not changed, which has suppressed the upward space of prices.

In terms of demand: Some companies have completed procurement after the holiday, but actual transactions have been slow. The lack of market chasing sentiment has led to a wait-and-see attitude among traders and downstream enterprises, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. However, the current industry has low processing fees, factories have a strong willingness to raise prices, and there is also a reduction in supply.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that the continued weakness of polyester bottle chip prices this month is mainly due to loose supply and demand, as well as negative costs. In the short term, the PET market may have limited volatility, and overall it presents a narrow adjustment pattern. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, starting from February 21st, the hydrogen peroxide market has improved and prices have risen. On February 21st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 683 yuan/ton. On February 27th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 723 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.85%.

Liduo supports the rise of hydrogen peroxide

At the end of February, the terminal demand in the printing and papermaking industry increased, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers had a strong mentality of raising prices. They raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide one after another, and the hydrogen peroxide market ushered in an upward trend. The average market price rose to 700-800 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. The market transactions are still acceptable, the goods are moving normally, and the actual transactions have increased.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that after March, the demand for terminal printing and papermaking industry will recover, and the supply of hydrogen peroxide will become tighter, with room for further growth in the future market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in February, the domestic adipic acid market experienced a decline after a rise, and the overall price increased. On February 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 8400 yuan/ton. On February 26th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 8433 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.4%.

Long Short Game: February Adipic Acid Market with Mixed Prices

At the beginning of the month, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone, raw materials for adipic acid, rose, supported by the stocking situation in the terminal plastic industry. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers increased, and the domestic adipic acid market transactions improved, leading to a warming of the market. The average market price rose to 8500-8700 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 200 yuan/ton.

In the middle of the month, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone as raw materials for adipic acid remained strong, and the demand in the terminal industry recovered. The prices of adipic acid manufacturers rose, and the market improved. The average market price rose to 8500-8700 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 50-100 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the prices of pure benzene and cyclohexanone, raw materials for adipic acid, fell, dragging down the raw material market, and the demand for terminal market was average. Adipic acid has an oversupply and the market is gradually declining. The average market price has fallen to around 8400 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 50-100 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that starting from March, with average terminal demand and limited boost in raw material prices, the domestic adipic acid market will continue to weaken.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda on February 25th was 1545 yuan/ton. On February 24th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 102.58, a decrease of 0.14 points from yesterday, a decrease of 56.50% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 16.21% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1400-1550 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1500-1750 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The current market average price is 1420 yuan/ton, and downstream customers tend to purchase according to their needs.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. The downstream supply of baking soda in pharmaceuticals, textiles, food, and other fields will still be relatively sufficient after the year. Downstream buyers have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will mainly fluctuate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash has slightly decreased this week. As of February 21, the average market price of soda ash was 1420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the soda ash price of 1424 yuan/ton on February 15, and a decrease of 4.95% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the soda ash market has experienced a narrow downward trend. The on-site equipment is running smoothly, and the capacity utilization rate has increased compared to last week. The inventory of soda ash is rising synchronously, and the downstream market fluctuates narrowly, resulting in insufficient demand for soda ash. In some areas, soda ash companies have poor shipments, and the focus of transactions has shifted downwards. The on-site supply is weak, and the overall market is running weakly.

As of February 21st, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1320-1500 yuan/ton for light soda ash, and the price remains stable; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1300-1420 yuan/ton for light soda ash, and the price remains stable.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market first fell and then rose. From February 15th to 21st, glass prices fell from 16.45 yuan/square meter to 16.30 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 0.91%. The downstream glass market has seen an increase in production and inventory levels, with downstream demand following suit as needed. The trading atmosphere in the market is average, and glass prices are weakly consolidating.

Future forecast: Currently, the operating rate of domestic soda ash continues to be high, the market inventory is sufficient, the sales pressure of spot alkali plants still exists, the downstream market is weak, market trading is limited, and the mentality of operators is deadlocked. It is expected that soda ash will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the TDI market in East China has experienced a wide decline this week. As of February 20th, the average market price in East China was 12850 yuan/ton, and on February 17th, the average price was 14400 yuan/ton. It fell 10.76% within the week and 25.72% year-on-year.

This week, the TDI market fell from a high level and experienced a broad decline. There have been frequent price adjustments in factories during the week, with the latest TDI execution price of 13550 yuan/ton for a large factory in Shanghai, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The willingness of intermediaries to sell goods has increased, and the focus of transactions continues to decline. The market atmosphere is quiet, with a buy up not buy down atmosphere, there are many inquiries and limited transactions.

Supply side: The TDI unit of Xinjiang Juli is temporarily shut down, while other units are maintaining medium to high load operation, and the market supply is filling up quickly.

Cost aspect: Upstream toluene has been operating steadily recently, with overall trading being relatively quiet and consolidating sideways.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI price has fallen to a low level, and downstream purchasing intentions have increased. If demand significantly rebounds, it is expected that the TDI market will stop falling and stabilize in the short term.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has been weak since February 10th, with a slight downward adjustment. On February 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 686 yuan/ton. On February 17th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide will be 683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% in price.

Supply and demand are weak, and hydrogen peroxide continues to operate weakly

In mid February, some manufacturers’ hydrogen peroxide devices were still shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of hydrogen peroxide. The terminal printing and papermaking industry has average terminal demand, with sluggish supply and demand. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken, with slight price adjustments.

The hydrogen peroxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals is weak, and the supply is gradually recovering. The future hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken, with weak upward momentum.